The corn markets bounced last week and closed higher in 4 of the 5 trading sessions. With some heat in the extended forecast, tariff talks that appear to be making ground the funds were net buyers last week. September corn ended the week 12 cents higher. December and March futures both ended 16 cents higher for the week. The funds are short 145,044 corn and long 3,808 soybean contracts.
Forecasts have a large dome forming in the 6–10-day models that is going to bring some hot weather across the major corn growing areas as we head into August. The market’s concern is the timing of this heat as it coincides with pollination in a lot of the major growing areas. Environmental stresses such as high temperatures cause issues by affecting silking and pollen dispersal. There are already issues of poor pollination being reported across several states, including Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa, mainly with corn planted during a specific window in mid-April.
The U.S. trade landscape is entering a high-stakes phase as President Trump accelerates his global tariff campaign. A trade deal has been said to be mostly inked with Indonesia, which includes 4.5 billion dollars of purchases in Agricultural goods. Another major development is the looming July 21 deadline with Canada, where negotiations have intensified following Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on all Canadian imports to 35% beginning August 1. Canada had previously prepared retaliatory tariffs but paused them after Trump’s formal notice. While no final agreement has been reached, the tone has shifted toward resolution, with the August 1 deadline serving as a hard stop for negotiations.
US corn remains competitive on the export market. Brazilian corn prices slipped lower last week, but US Gulf corn is still the best deal around to most markets. US Corn into Europe is about 10 dollars a ton cheaper than Brazilian. The US competitiveness is due to Brazil’s slow harvest pace. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is about 40% to 45% harvested vs. 70% to 75% last year at this time. Brazil may become more competitive during the early US harvest time frame when their harvest is wrapping up and looking for export homes.
Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 68% and the 65% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 34% and 7%, respectively.
As I stated last week, prices typically bottom out in August/September, and we grind higher after that. This year may be the exception where we set our lows in July. I look for the markets to fill the CZ25 gap at $4.3575 early this week. If we fill that gap I think the markets are heading to the $4.45-4.50 level where they will be met with resistance and ultimately trade sideways until we get a better gauge of new crop yields.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 7/21/2025 | Weekly Crop Conditions |
| 8/12/2025 | Crop Production |
