War, Weather and Wheat were the market movers this past week. September futures ended the week 19 higher while December and March both closed 20 cents higher. The funds are now long 107,713 corn contracts and long 158,505 soybean contracts.
The US and Iran conflict has resurfaced and dominated the energy markets last week pushing crude oil up $12/barrel last week. The Russia and Ukraine conflict continued to impact the wheat market which has seen the market rally over $1.20/bushel since the first of July. Both issues have spilled over into the grain markets, moving corn, soybeans and wheat higher last week.
While the Middle East remains a mess and conflict creates demand for commodities, weather issues remain ever present and may be a bigger factor. US weather forecasts are holding the ridge over the Upper Plains and keeping temperatures elevated while keeping rain away. So far this year the forecasts have been more extreme in temperature and moisture deficits than what we have actually experienced. While they may have missed previous forecasts, I would argue weather is more critical now than it was when those forecasts were off.
The 7–10-day forecast calls for extended heat and drought across ND, MN, IA, IL and the great lakes region. 100-degree temperatures across the Northwest Plains will continue to put pressure on the markets. The 10–15-day forecasts vary between the European and US models making it difficult to determine how big this could be in the market.
Last week’s crop progress report was down 1% with 67% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%. 59% of the crop was reported as silking compared to 53% last year and 54% on average.
With last week’s rally, we managed to close above my targets on the CBOT for September, December and March. With the current risk premium that is being traded in the market, my next target for September (CU6) is $4.75. My next targets for December (CZ6) and March (CH7) are $5.05 and $5.15 respectively.
If the extended weather forecasts hold true and conflict continues in Europe or the middle east, we could hit these levels shortly. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 7/27/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 8/12/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/7/2026 | No Markets |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
