Week Ending 7/25/2025

Last week was a slower and lower week in the corn markets as rains fell across the Midwest to excessive heat concerns. December and March futures ended the week 9 cents lower while May futures closed 8 cents lower. The funds ended the week short 139,763 corn and 2,891 soybean contracts.

While the dome did materialize, bringing higher temperatures across the Midwest last week, temperatures did not reach the original forecasted highs. Favorable precipitation helped negate the impact of the high temperatures, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt. The main driving factor behind price movement, or the lack thereof, can be attributed to the ever-changing forecasts that come out multiple times per day. Current forecasts have heat moving out of the Midwest by late this week which should help late pollinating corn avoid a risk of yield loss.

The United States struck a deal with Japan last week that lowers tariffs on auto imports and spares Tokyo from punishing new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US bound investment and loans. Japan has been the second largest importer of US corn this year with 514 million bushels year to date. Agreeing to the deal may not result in additional corn exports, but it definitely helps secure current business.

In Louisiana, growers started harvesting corn over the weekend and may be fulfilling some gulf barge demand early next week. This should start to impact basis levels across the US in the coming weeks as new crops begin to hit the market, quenching some of the old crop demand.

Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Only 2 years (2014 & 2016) in the last 14 have had better conditions at this point. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 56% and 14%, respectively.

So far, we have been unable to fill the CBOT gaps made back on July 7^th. I still believe these gaps are in play and will be filled, it may take longer than expected if mother nature doesn’t give the traders some bullish weather in the coming week. Historically late August is when the CBOT bottoms out and we begin our trek higher. This year may be an anomaly as we may set lows in July. Anyone looking to cover new crop needs should consider locking in some prices now to take advantage of current levels. All CBOT prices for the 2025 crop are currently trading in the bottom 16^th percentile for the 5-year period. (only 16% of the time has the market been below current levels over the last five years) There is a lot more room to the upside and while we are trading a record size crop, I believe it will be smaller than current estimates in the end.

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