The end of a quarter, a USDA report and extended weekend positioning all resulted in a market that was basically unchanged. Despite a 20-cent trading range in a holiday shortened week, September futures ended the week a penny higher while December and March futures were unchanged. The funds are short 3,819 corn contracts and long 68,986 soybean contracts.
The USDA released its June Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report this past Tuesday. Corn planted acres came in slightly above expectations. The total is still 4% below last year but ranks as the 4th highest in modern history.
Corn stocks came in below estimates but remain the largest since 2018/19. Several states set records for total, on-farm, and off-farm stocks. 56% of stocks are on farm, which is in line with last year. U.S. on-farm stocks rose 12% year over year, while off-farm stocks rose 16%.
USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| June 2026 | Average Estimate | June 2025 | |
| Corn | 5.295 | 5.408 | 4.643 |
| Soybeans | 1.061 | 1.046 | 1.008 |
| Wheat | .920 | .934 | .855 |
USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)
| June 2026 | Average Estimate | March 2026 | |
| Corn | 95.343 | 94.992 | 95.338 |
| Soybeans | 85.365 | 85.369 | 84.700 |
| Wheat | 45.740 | 43.858 | 43.775 |
Last week’s crop progress report was down 1% from the previous week by 3% of the five year average in the Good/Excellent category.
Last week’s report shows that the balance sheet appears to be tightening for corn due to stronger than anticipated demand. As we transition to Q3 traders will focus on July weather to see how this crop is shaping up. As I stated last week, this is the most critical month in determining the size of the crop. We are still working with 1.9 – 2.0 billion bushels on the balance sheet, but things can change quickly. My targets have not changed since last week, I think we are taking September futures back to $4.50 and December futures back to the $4.70 level.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 7/6/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 7/10/2026 | Crop Production |
