Despite the world’s shipping issues tied to the black Sea, weather took control of the markets late last week. With rain falling across the major corn growing areas and forecasts for more over the weekend, September, December and March, futures all traded 23 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 81,776 corn contracts and long 132,479 soybean contracts.
A drop in crop ratings held corn higher early in the week before a favorable weather forecast took over. Corn condition ratings fell four points last week to 63% good/excellent, which is below both last year (73%) and the five-year average (64%). This was the largest weekly drop in July since 2012 and the largest for this week since 2007. The rating of 63% good to excellent suggests a crop that is at or below trendline. Of the top 18 production states, only three posted an improvement in crop conditions (Missouri, Pennsylvania and North Carolina), with Iowa and Tennessee remaining unchanged.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeted a US air base in Jordan in a missile attack and claimed to have hit three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which closed shipping again. The US intercepted the attack, and along with Saudi Arabia, struck back at Iran. There remains doubt that Iran wants a diplomatic end to the war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening world energy and fertilizer supplies, and the length of the conflict is causing growing anxiety that it will carry into the Northern Hemispheres winter season when heating oil demand grows.
Beneficial rains fell across most of the corn producing states late last week and into the weekend. with nearly 30% of the major corn production areas experiencing drought as of this past week these rains were desperately needed. Forecasts have another hot air mass building in the coming week in the Plains and then breaking down again late in the week. It appears there will be more chances of rain as the ridge backs off. So far, the GFS has been the better predicter of weather this summer when compared to the EU.
We are just over a week away from the USDA’s August Crop Production report which could give us some changes. Estimates for this report will be out this week and I expect most will be anticipating a lower yield due to the lack of rain in July. We will have a decent carryout from the 2025 crop which may keep prices depressed the balance of the year, but a smaller 2026 crop should tighten the balance sheet for 2027 if demand remains strong. My highest I see September (CU6) trading is $4.75. The top I see for December (CZ6) and March (CH7) are $5.05 and $5.15 respectively.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/3/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 8/12/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/7/2026 | No Markets |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
