Corn found support this past week on the heels of a bullish yield number from the USDA and lack of a truce between Russia and Ukraine. September corn gained 20 cents while December and March futures closed 21 cents higher. The funds are now long 201,875 corn contracts and long 117,109 soybean contracts.
The USDA raised planted corn acreage by 1.4 million acres to 96.7 million. Offsetting the increase in acres was a lower than expended yield projection of 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from last month’s forecast. The increased acres and lower yield result in production of 13 million more bushels or 16.013 billion bushels.
The USDA 2025-26 balance sheet was reduced by 75 million bushels due to an increase in exports which jumped to 3.4 billion.
With the lower beginning stocks and slight increase in production, total supplies are forecast to be 62 million bushels lower than last month. New crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.653 billion bushels, down 137 million from last month, and 292 million bushels (-15%) lower than last year. The stocks-to-usage ratio is projected to be 10.12% compared to 11.01% last month.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.945 | 2.020 | 2.136 |
| Soybeans | .325 | .330 | .317 |
USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 180.70 | 182.4 | 183.0 |
| Soybeans | 52.70 | 52.9 | 53.0 |
USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 16.013 | 15.934 | 16.000 |
| Soybeans | 4.519 | 4.472 | 4.470 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.653 | 1.725 | 1.790 |
| Soybeans | .320 | .304 | .310 |
| Wheat | .717 | .715 | .722 |
The Black Sea conflict continues to hamper wheat exports, adding support to the wheat market which has been pulling corn and soybeans along for the ride. Ukraine reached out to Russia to work on a ceasefire early last week, but Russia rejected that proposal sending the markets higher to end the week.
The Pro Farmer Tour kicks off this week and will have the market’s attention. Traders pay close attention to the tour for its ability to cover a large amount of territory with plenty of field feedback on social media accounts.
US corn condition ratings remained unchanged at 61% good to excellent on Monday. It was the first week corn ratings stabilized after starting the decline from 68% good to excellent on July 12. North Dakota took a hit in corn ratings this week, declining 10 points to 27% good to excellent. North Dakota currently stands at 30% lower than the 5-year average. Nebraska saw the biggest increase in ratings, improving 3% week on week to 57% good to excellent. 61% of the US corn crop is in the dough stage—6 points ahead of the 5-year average. 16% of the US crop is dented vs. the 5-year average of 12%.
It’s only mid-August so there is still plenty of room for small changes to the crop size based on weather. Weekly crop conditions will be watched closely along with the Pro Farmer crop tour as traders try to get a handle on the size of this year’s crop. Recent storms across the corn belt have done a lot of damage in certain areas that will reduce the size of the crop in those areas. We may see the results of some of that damage in the Pro Farmer reports.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/17/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 9/7/2026 | No Markets |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
