Corn futures doubled down with another 20 cent gain this past week as bullish news from the crop tour fueled the rally. September corn closed 25 cents higher on the week while December and March ended the week 26 and 25 cents higher respectively. The funds are now long 249,692 corn contracts and long 176,782 soybean contracts.
The Pro Farmer crop tour wrapped up on Thursday after making stops in SD, NE, OH, IN, IL, IA and MN last week. Of the 7 states they visited, they found smaller yields than last year in all of them and smaller yields that the USDA’s August report in 6 of the 7 states. (MN was higher) Pro Farmers final yield came in at 173.2 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre. Pro Farmers production was estimated at 15.344 billion bushels compared to the USDA’s 16.013. Using the USDA’s demand base estimates would create a carryout of 986 million bushels. A number this low would result in higher markets and result in rationing.
While Pro Farmer painted a bullish outlook for the markets, the USDA historically comes in higher on yield and production. The chart below shows the coloration between the Pro Farmer and USDA August, September and Final numbers. In the last 20 years the USDA’s final yield was higher than the Pro Farmer estimate.
| USDA August | Pro Farmer | USDA September | USDA Final | |
| 2026 | 180.7 | 173.2 | ||
| 2025 | 188.8 | 182.7 | 186.7 | 186.5 |
| 2024 | 183.1 | 181.1 | 183.6 | 179.3 |
| 2023 | 175.1 | 172 | 173.8 | 177.3 |
| 2022 | 175.4 | 168.1 | 172.5 | 173.3 |
| 2021 | 174.6 | 177 | 176.8 | 177 |
| 2020 | 181.8 | 177.5 | 178.5 | 172 |
| 2019 | 169.5 | 163.3 | 168.2 | 168 |
| 2018 | 178.4 | 177.3 | 181.3 | 176.4 |
| 2017 | 169.5 | 167.1 | 169.9 | 176.6 |
| 2016 | 175.1 | 170.2 | 174.4 | 174.6 |
| 2015 | 168.8 | 164.3 | 167.5 | 168.4 |
| 2014 | 167.4 | 169.3 | 171.7 | 171 |
| 2013 | 154.4 | 154.1 | 155.3 | 158.8 |
| 2012 | 123.4 | 120.3 | 122.8 | 123.4 |
| 2011 | 153 | 147.9 | 148.1 | 147.2 |
| 2010 | 165 | 164.1 | 162.5 | 152.8 |
| 2009 | 159.5 | 160.1 | 161.9 | 165.2 |
| 2008 | 155 | 153.3 | 152.3 | 153.9 |
| 2007 | 152.8 | 153.5 | 155.8 | 151.1 |
Harvest progress in the southern states has been under way for a few weeks, but we are a couple weeks away from the USDA reporting the progress. 29% of the crops were reported as dented compared to 25% on average.
We made new highs in every new crop contract month except for September this past week. Given the fact that Pro Farmers’ final yield was not released until the markets closed on Friday, I would expect the market to have strength early in the week before some profits are taken. 20-25 cents above Fridays close is my new ceiling for all new crop months.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/24/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 9/7/2026 | No Markets |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
