Corn had a firmer week and continued to move higher following the previous week’s USDA report. With daily reports of slightly lower yields coming from the Pro Farmer tour, traders began to reduce their short position. September corn ended the week 4 cents higher while December and March closed 6 cents higher. The funds ended the week short 96,637 corn and long 12,247 soybean contracts.
Pro Farmer conducted their popular crop tour last week which surveyed 2000 + corn and soybean fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. Following Fridays CBOT close they released their national yield estimate which came in at 182.7 bushels per acre for corn. This is 6.1 bushel per acre below the estimate that the USDA gave us the previous week. Over the past 15 years, the farm publication’s tour reports have averaged 3-4 bushels per acre below USDA final values released in January.
The charts appear to be supportive and the seasonals tell us it’s not uncommon to find a seasonal low in August, even in years where crop expectations are high. Buyers locking in corn prices during the last weeks of August through the first week of September are usually buying at the CBOT lows. As I said last week, I am in the 184 bushel per acre camp when all is said and done with the 2025 crop. We are a few weeks away from getting some good data when the combines begin to hit the field in the major corn producing states. Demand for new crop US corn has been strong with great export sales while margins in livestock and ethanol have been very good. Any reduction in yield from the USDA’s August estimate, changes the carryout equation from burdensome to balanced. This is why I believe the markets will work slightly higher as we move forward.
Last week’s crop progress report showed corn in the dented stage at 27% which is in line with the 5-year average.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/12/2025 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2025 | Grain Stocks |
