Profit taking by the funds was the motivating factor in the corn market as they reduced their short position to end the week, month and quarter. December, March and May corn all ended the week 9 cents higher. The funds reduced their short position in corn by 30,000 contracts with Fridays buying. The funds ended the month short 79,935 corn contracts and long 23,145 soybean contracts.
Harvest has been taking place in the south and will continue to work its way north, especially following the Labor Day weekend. Early yields are mixed with some areas reporting records and others reporting average. This is the case every year as producers head to the fields. The challenge this year for the markets will be to determine if the crops potential is as high as the USDA’s August estimate. No one questions that this year’s yield should be a record, its just trying to determine by how much. August finished abnormally dry across much of the corn belt, with cooler temperatures setting in the last couple of weeks. This is not ideal for finishing the crop and could lower the final yield. How big an impact this will have on final ear fill and yield will be known in the next 30+ days as the crop comes off and official yields are reported.
Looking ahead to where the markets are going in the next 60 days will all start on Tuesday. Will we be able to carry Friday’s strength and manage a higher close? If so, I look at $4.3275 for the CZ25 (December futures) as the next target. The markets traded lower coming out of the July 4th weekend and left a gap at this level that I believe we will get back to. If the markets fail to close stronger on Tuesday, I would target $4.00 as the next support level.
Last week’s crop progress report showed corn in the dented stage at 44% which is in line with the 5-year average.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/12/2025 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2025 | Grain Stocks |
