The corn market had a 20-cent trading range last week before settling 2 cents lower in the September, December and March contracts. Ongoing peace talks and private estimates for the upcoming USDA report were the market movers. The funds ended the week long 140,821 corn contracts and long 131,524 soybean contracts.
Private analyst StoneX was out with their August crop estimate and provided the market with a 184.8 corn yield and a 53-soybean yield. On the surface this appeared to be bearish, but I think the market may have already been trending this way given the recent precipitation in some of the drier areas of the Cornbelt. The ultimate benchmark will come from the USDA this Wednesday, after which everyone can start running their regression models to determine where they feel yield is trending. There are two different models that traders have been looking at to determine the potential size of this crop. The crop vegetation and weather models are currently showing a crop in the 184-186 bushel per acre range. The weekly crop conditions predict a yield in the 180-182 range based on historical data of ratings at the current levels. These differences may seem small, but a 186 yield would put us around a 1.9-billion-bushel carryout while a 180 yield would be closer to 1.3 billion carryout.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.020 | 2.136 | |
| Soybeans | .330 | .317 |
USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 182.4 | 183.0 | |
| Soybeans | 52.9 | 53.0 |
USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 15.934 | 16.000 | |
| Soybeans | 4.472 | 4.470 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| August 2026 | Average Estimate | July 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.725 | 1.790 | |
| Soybeans | .304 | .310 | |
| Wheat | .715 | .722 |
Corn condition ratings fell by two more points this week, to 61% good/excellent; that is down from 73% last year and the 64% five-year average. North Dakota showed the biggest drop as ratings plunged 13%, followed by an 8% decline in Kansas and a 6% drop in Nebraska. The far western Corn Belt corn crop is deteriorating rapidly. Corn silking was reported to be 90%, doughing at 43%, and denting at 6%.
The weather forecast has warm temperatures in the Plains and cooler weather in the East. Rain will continue to move through the Eastern Belt over the next two weeks. I think the crop losses in Europe, the Chinese soybean buying and wreckage in the Black Sea are holding the bottom side of this market together as the weather in the US has been improving. Wednesdays USDA report will be the next market mover as we get a better handle on what the USDA is thinking for yield.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/10/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 8/12/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/7/2026 | No Markets |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
