Corn chopped around last week as weather forecasts continue to look non-threatening ahead of next week’s USDA report. September corn lost 6 cents on the week while December and March futures closed 5 cents lower. December futures managed to break below the $4 level on Wednesday reaching $3.9675 before closing higher. This will serve as our new support level for now, but I expect Tuesdays report to test it. The funds ended the week short 134,848 corn and 73,594 soybean contracts.
Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move along slowly, advancing only 1.3% last week to reach 89.3% complete. This trails last year by 7% and the five-year average by 3%. This slower pace of harvest is a major reason US old crop exports have been so good coming down the stretch.
New crop US corn sales are picking up and gave the markets some support last Thursday with a whopping 124.5 million bushel reported. 2025/26 new crop sales are currently the second highest in the last 10 years. Low prices and expectations for a larger crop have supported sales.
Tuesday the USDA will release August Production report. The average yield estimates are 184.3 for corn and 52.9 for soybeans, but it sounds like traders’ estimates are higher for both crops due to excellent condition reports & strong satellite imagery.
USDA 2024/25 Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 1.321 | 1.340 | |
| Soybeans | .347 | .350 |
USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 184.29 | 181.0 | |
| Soybeans | 52.9 | 52.5 |
USDA 2025/26 Production (Billion Bushels)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 15.979 | 15.705 | |
| Soybeans | 4.365 | 4.335 |
USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 1.902 | 1.660 | |
| Soybeans | .349 | .310 | |
| Wheat | .882 | .890 |
Corn condition ratings came in at 73% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 88% and 42% respectively.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/11/2025 | Weekly Crop Conditions |
| 8/12/2025 | Crop Production |
