Corn closed lower for the first time in five weeks following a USDA report that was in line with expectations.
December and March corn ended the week 6 cents lower while May closed 7 cents lower on the week. The funds ended the week long 412,459 corn contracts and long 245,258 soybean contracts.
The September WASDE report released on Friday was in line with trade estimates resulting in spec traders taking profits. The national yield fell 2.2 bushels/acre to 178.5 due to larger yield reductions in the western states. (ND, SD, NE, CO and KS) On the demand side, exports were left unchanged, but Feed and residual use decreased by 150 million bushels to 5.950 billion bushels. Net-ending stocks were down 86 million bushels and are currently projected at 1.567 billion bushels.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| September 2026 | Average Est. | August 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.922 | 1.944 | 1.945 |
| Soybeans | .325 | .317 | .325 |
USDA 2026 US Harvested Acreage (Million Acres)
| September 2026 | Average Est. | August 2026 | |
| Corn | 88.5 | 88.6 | 88.6 |
| Soybeans | 85.9 | 85.8 | 85.8 |
USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| September 2026 | Average Est. | August 2026 | |
| Corn | 178.5 | 178.2 | 180.7 |
| Soybeans | 52.8 | 52.5 | 52.7 |
USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels)
| September 2026 | Average Est. | August 2026 | |
| Corn | 15.800 | 15.785 | 16.013 |
| Soybeans | 4.535 | 4.501 | 4.519 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| September 2026 | Average Est. | August 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.567 | 1.528 | 1.653 |
| Soybeans | .310 | .298 | .320 |
Harvest progress came in ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Look for harvest progress to push north in the coming weeks as favorable weather pushes the crop to the finish line.
With harvest pressure building, the funds extreme length and another USDA report a couple weeks out, I am looking for some weakness in the markets. (Provided we don’t see geopolitical support) There is a gap in the charts from 3 eeks ago that remains intact. If this market is going to remain supported or move higher, we are going to need more fund support. Setting the markets back 20-25 cents would allow the funds to make some profits and allow others to buy back in. I don’t know how quickly it will happen, but I do expect CZ26 to fill the gap at $5.09 before coming back to current or higher levels. Remember my stat from last weeks letter, “December corn futures have never posted a high in September.” The USDA’s latest estimate puts the stocks to use ratio at 9.7% which is supportive of $5.50 CBOT prices.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/14/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
