As harvest ramps up with favorable weather and export demand for soybeans remains absent, the markets continue to remain rangebound while looking for bullish support. December and March corn ended the week 2 cents lower while May futures closed 3 lower. The funds ended the week short 108,323 corn and 35,742 soybean contracts.
US weather forecasts remain very good, which should aid harvest progress. Traders are expecting NASS to show strong numbers in Monday afternoons harvest progress report. Reports out of the field continue to vary with no direction other than yields don’t appear to be as good as we expected in August. A dry August coupled with disease pressure appears to have taken the top off of the crop. I am sticking to my 184 bushel per acre estimate but may adjust as I see more data in the coming weeks.
On Tuesday the USDA will release their September 1st grain stocks report. Estimates are shown below. I do not expect the market to react much to this report as the focus remains on current harvest conditions.
USDA September 1 Stocks (billion bushel)
| USDA September 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA September 2024 | |
| Corn | 1.337 | 1.763 | |
| Soybeans | .323 | .342 | |
| Wheat | 2.043 | 1.992 |
Late last week, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins spoke on the current state for the farm economy in the US. In her speech she acknowledged that the tariffs have negatively impacted producers and that this administration is going to support American Ag. On Thursday President Trump backed this up by saying “We’re going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers.” US farm production imputs are significantly higher than they were four years ago and commodity prices are much lower, putting pressure on farmers’ bottom lines. Between 2020 and 2025, seed expenses increased 18%, fuel and oil increased 32%, fertilizer increased 37% and interest expenses increased 73%.
Corn harvest was reported at 11% complete this past year, which is right in line with the 5-year average but slightly behind last year.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/30/2025 | Grain Stocks |
| 10/9/2025 | Crop Production |
