The markets put the brakes on their rally last week as traders headed for a three-day weekend. With a USDA report on the 11th, the funds long position and a chance for peace talks in the Black Sea region trade was light to end the week. December corn ended the week unchanged awhile March and May futures finished 1 and 3 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 394,003 corn contracts and long 244,920 soybean contracts.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said U.S. negotiators visited Kyiv and Moscow over the weekend to discuss the war, although no major breakthroughs have been seen with the visit. This is the second time Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have gone over to try and end the war, the last being in February. Despite the talks and outside efforts toward peace, Russia & Ukraine strikes continue.
This Friday the USDA will release its September Crop Production report. I am not expecting this report to have any significant changes but would not be surprised if they lowered corn yield by a bushel or two from their August report. The USDA’s August report put yield at 180.7 bushels per acre. I feel like the market is currently trading at 178 bushel per acre, so any estimate above this level is probably neutral to bearish the market.
With the next quarterly Grain Stocks report out at the end of the month, the USDA most likely will not touch the current feed/residual usage estimate until the October WASDE report, once the results of the Grain Stock report are available. This is the number that has the potential to add significant bushels to our carryout. The USDA is currently using 6.350 billion bushels as its estimated. This is an 896-million-bushel increase from last year, while combined major livestock numbers (cattle on feed, hogs, broilers) over the corn marketing year are essentially flat from a year ago. In my opinion we could easily see 200 million bushels back on the balance sheet which changes our stocks/use ratio significantly.
Harvest progress ratings remain ahead of pace for corn doughing (92%), denting (62%) and maturity (13%).
I look for the markets to soften a bit this week ahead of the USDA report and stabilize over the next month or so as we digest field reports. Interestingly, December corn futures have never posted a high in September, and soybeans have only done it once (2012). Could this be the year?
Markets are volatile and we appear to trade more on comments than fundamentals. It took one headline from Putin to break the wheat market 30 cents! That’s what we’re dealing with here, and who knows what the next comment or tweet may bring.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/8/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 9/11/2026 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
