Favorable US weather, weaker exports and month end weighed on the markets last week. A wet forecast led the way pulling the markets lower all week as the funds added to their short positions. July corn lost 15 cents last week and 31 cents during the month. September corn lost 15 cents last week but only ended 14 cents lower for the month. December futures were the winner, only losing 13 cents last week and 7 for the month. The funds end the month short 120,149 corn contracts and long 46,919 soybean contracts.

A US appeals court temporarily reinstated the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs Thursday while it reviews a lower court ruling blocking the new import levies. The latest action came a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the administration to stop most of its new levies, including a 10% baseline import tariff, on nearly all US trading partners within 10 days. The ruling argued President Trump exceeded his authority by using a 1977 emergency powers law to impose tariffs. Trump has used the tariffs to lure manufacturing back to the US, potentially reduce federal deficits, and gain leverage to negotiate more favorable trade deals. The federal court decision is now stayed through June 9, when the appeals court will hear arguments in the case.

Weekly exports were on the lower end of estimates at 36.1 million bushels. This is well below the 10-week average of 50.2 million bushels. We are 153 million bushels (6%) ahead of the pace needed to hit the USDA’s estimates for the year. I look for exports to begin to tail off over the next few weeks as the South American crop comes to market. Brazil corn is currently $.10/bushel cheaper than US corn for July forward.

The first quarter of the year all we were hearing from weather forecasters was “drought”! We are a long way from being able to say it won’t happen, but the recent weather we are experiencing is far from drought. I would expect to see a slight increase in crop ratings for corn and soybeans tomorrow. In my opinion crop ratings this time of the year are useless as it’s too early to meaningfully rate the crop. As one farmer told me, this time of year it’s either dead or alive!

Last week’s planting progress showed 87% of the country complete compared to 85% on average. Ohio remains the biggest concern at only 54% complete. Given the geographic location of the acres that are not planted, I look for producers in OH to plant well past their insurance deadline of June 5^th if necessary.

Historically June is a bullish month for the grain markets. In the last 20 years, December corn futures have posted their yearly highs in the month of June. The previous contract high for December futures (CZ25) was in February when we reached $4.7975. Since 1973 December futures have always returned to their February price average. This year’s CZ average in February was $4.70. History also tells us that once we hit July, there is a 75% chance that December futures will make new contract lows before expiration.

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Technical price action helped the corn market bounce higher last week. July and September closed 16 cents higher while December futures closed 15 cents higher last week.  The funds ended the week short 115,483 corn contracts and long 46,330 soybean contracts.

The US Good/Excellent ratings will be released Tuesday afternoon due to the holiday week, and they are expected to be better than average, like the planting pace this year. Though initial Good/Excellent ratings have zero correlation to final yields, a good rating only has to be maintained instead of rescued by rains. The USDA’s old yield models place considerable weight on timely planting, which the US has exceeded this year. The next hurdle will be rain in June, followed by July temperatures and moisture.

The weather forecast has heavy rains for the South that extends out in the models for the next 14 days. The Midwest appears to warm up a bit with more chances for rain in the 7–10-day timeframe. While this forecast is on the bearish side but could quickly become an issue if it stays wet.

Last week’s planting progress made another push towards completion with 78% of the crop reported in the ground as of 5/18/25. This is ahead of last year by 11% and the 5-year average by 5%. The Eastern corn belt remains behind average but should have made up some ground last week and early this week.

Coming off a holiday weekend and on the brink of a new month we could see some price action to the higher side this week. Historically June is a bullish month for the grain markets. In the last 20 years, December corn futures have posted their yearly highs in the month of June. The previous contract high for December futures (CZ25) was in February when we reached $4.7975. Once we hit July, there is a 75% chance that December futures will make new contract lows before expiration. Will history repeat itself and give the producer one last chance to market corn at profitable levels or will this year’s large acreage keep history from repeating itself is TBD.

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The corn market was under pressure last week with near perfect planting conditions across the country over the last 7 days and improving South American crop conditions. July corn closed 19 cents lower while September and December futures lost 11 and 8 cents respectively. The funds have completely exited their long position in corn and are now short 10,981 contracts. They are currently long 31,728 soybean contracts.

This weekend the United States and China reached a preliminary trade agreement following two days of intensive negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the American delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng represented China. The talks aimed to address the escalating trade war that had seen the U.S. impose tariffs up to 145% on Chinese imports and China retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Specific details of the agreement are set to be released on Monday. The deal focuses on reducing the significant U.S. trade deficit with China, which stands at approximately $295 billion. The agreement also seeks to resolve issues related to intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and forced technology transfers—concerns that have long strained U.S.-China trade relations. This development is seen as a significant step toward de-escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies

Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting 40% complete compared to 24% the previous week and 39% on average. With favorable weather over the last 7 days, we should see these numbers significantly higher in this afternoons report.

On Monday at 11AM the USDA will release its monthly WASDE report which will give us a look at the 2024/25 and the 2025/26 carryout estimates. Expectations are for lower stocks in 2024/25 due to the strong export pace we have seen. 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated to be over 2 billion bushels due to the projected size of this year’s crops in the US and South America. These numbers are estimates based on potential acres, yields and demand. Keep in mind that a year ago we were well over 2 billion bushels with expectations and are now sub 1.5 billion.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels

USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

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Favorable planting progress along with fading weather concerns weighed on the markets this past week. July corn futures took the biggest hit closing 16 cents lower, while September and December futures each lost 6 cents this past week. The funds ended the week long 93,129 corn and 72,928 soybean contracts.

Last week brought moisture directly across the heartland of the U.S. with nearly the entire nation seeing wetter conditions than the week prior. In the main row crop producing states, topsoil water surpluses range from 10-30 percent which will be beneficial to getting the crop started.

In Brazil the past two weeks have seen rains stay above average. Two to five inches of rain have fallen in this timeframe. They are 2 weeks from the end of the critical growth period for their Safrinha corn crop. The soil moisture levels are sufficient to carry the crops through harvest. To complement the rainfall, temperatures are expected to be slightly below average.

Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting doubled from the previous week to 24% complete. This is ahead of the five-year average by 2%. Corn emergence rose from 2% to 5%, which is ahead of the five-year average by 1%. We should see progress climb again in this afternoon’s report as most areas of the US had 3-4 days of decent weather before getting rained out late in the week.

The next three weeks are going to be a lot about planting progress along with short- and long-term weather forecasts. Long term forecasts are calling for a warmer and drought-like pattern to hit the US growing areas in late May to early June. We are not lacking moisture this spring but will have to see what happens in the coming months.

Basis levels continue to strengthen with lower CBOT prices, producers busy in the fields and tighter than anticipated stocks. If exports stay at current levels into the summer months, things could get interesting in August and September. I think we will see basis weaken a touch once the planting is complete (early to mid-June) but do expect it to come roaring back late summer. Ending stocks have dropped in the last 3 USDA reports and I expect the same to happen in the May 12^th report.

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Tariff talk, weather and planting progress were the news this past week within the grain markets. All three of them are pulling the market in different directions at different times. That seems to be the theme lately, especially with Tariffs where it has been day to day on what’s going to come next. May and July corn ended the week 3 and 5 cents lower respectively while December futures closed 10 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 136,414 corn contracts and long 56,245 soybean contracts.

President trump told TIME magazine in an interview that U.S. – China talks were taking place on tariffs and that some progress could be seen very soon. China has apparently exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, according to businesses that have been notified. The U.S. and Japan continue to talk about a trade agreement with Japan, considering increasing its Ag imports from the U.S., but no definitive quantity has been shared.

The U.S. continues to be the worlds largest exporter of grains as prices remain competitive to South America and should remain that way until the Argentina or Brazilian crops start to move to market. By early June I would expect to see a shift in buying move to South American grains, especially if we are still dealing with tariffs or the talk of them.

Last Monday’s crop progress report showed national corn planting progress at 12% complete, up from 4% last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average. Soybean planting rose from 2% to 8% and is ahead of the five-year average of 5%. The consensus is that these numbers were short of the actual percentage planted due to the holiday and not all the data being gathered. I am expecting a significant jump this week with favorable weather across much of the country last week.

The forecast for the FH of May looks pretty good – as such, fears that the crop won’t get in the ground will fade.  Every year we go through a checklist: 1. Acres to be planted 2. Planting completion 3. Pollination 4. Maturity 5. Harvest.  We are approximately 3-4 weeks away from completing the first 2 items on that checklist, then we will wait about 6-8 weeks before we can mark off pollination.

We continue to see basis strengthening across the U.S. I believe the current strength is a not a result of the grain not being there, but rather the result of a lack of logistics to move it. The farmer is busy in the field and doesn’t have time to move his stored grain and plant this year’s crop regardless of what the market is telling him to do. A stronger basis is getting commercials and some producers to the market to quench the processor needs until planting is complete. I think we will see basis weaken a touch once the planting is complete (early to mid-June)

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