There was a lot of bullish activity in the markets last week leading up to the meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Following the meeting trade volume slowed, and we saw a slight selloff, but remained positive for the week. December corn closed 8 higher while March and May futures closed 7 and 6 cents higher respectively. The funds reduced their short position in corn by almost 30,000 contracts and are now short 56,323. They added over 80,000 contracts to their bean position and are long 113,258.

Late last week the two Presidents met as planned in South Korea and reportedly came to an agreement on several things. The US agreed to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean purchases and keeping rare earth metal exports flowing. The market mover for agricultural commodities was that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tonnes of soybeans this year and 25 million metric tonnes for the next three years. This news rallied the soybean market which spilled over into the corn and wheat markets.

With last week’s rally, we were able to fill the CZ25 gap created back in July at $4.3275. As I mentioned last week, I look for $4.50 as the next target for CZ25. Historically the markets tend to move lower to start the month of November before trending higher into the first of the year. With bullish news on the trade front, we could see this climb start earlier than normal. My only hesitation on a stronger board price hinges on details and execution of the Chinese deal. They may be back buying US soybeans, but is it too late and will they comply with the recent agreement?

Following the weekend activity across the Midwest I would estimate harvest progress to be 80% complete compared to 91% last year and 85% on average. Locally I would estimate we are 65% complete, which would trail last year’s 81% but is still ahead of the five-year average of 49%.

Basis in the east is strengthening as harvest has wrapped up, and the producer has bushels put away. Western basis levels are still wide as harvest is still in progress, the crop was better, and demand was absent during harvest. With significant ground piles that need to be picked up, I look for basis to remain wide in the west until the grain starts to move to export channels or basis in the east is strong enough to pull it that direction.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has said they will be releasing their November Crop Production report on November 14^th. This report was originally scheduled for release on November 10^th. This is positive news as most were anticipating this report would not be released as the government is still shut down.

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The corn market had another uneventful week as traders wait for news of the government returning to work or a trade deal with China, neither of which are on the immediate radar. Corn ended the week 1 higher in the December contract while March and May finished unchanged. The funds are estimated to be short 82,323 corn and long 31,258 soybean contracts.

President Trump is expected to meet with President Xi this week on the 30th in South Korea at the APEC summit.  I am not expecting anything big out of this meeting, but the fact that they are meeting has to be positive. Trump has stated he plans to focus on the illegal drug trade and Ag trade with Xi. China isn’t interested in corn imports from any origin let alone the US as they have enough local supplies to meet demand. The hope is that a deal may get done for soybeans which will add strength to the corn markets.

There is some optimism that the framework of a trade agreement has already been reached between the U.S. and China. Treasury Secretary Bessent was quoted on Face the Nation as saying he expected China to make “substantial” soybean purchases in the future. When talking with Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan, he was quoted as saying “Margaret, I’m not going to give you the details here, but I can tell you the soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years.”

The Trump Administration has reopened the Phase 1 Deal investigation to determine whether China has complied with the original agreement. The Deal, which was orphaned under the Biden Administration, may be hard to enforce based on the legal language that was built into it.

I would estimate corn harvest to be 58% complete nationwide compared to my estimate of 45% last week and 65% last year. Harvest in the north is plodding along with reports of wetter corn, but good yields coming from our draw area. Basis has started to strengthen in Kansas, Ohio and central Illinois where the farmer has been reluctant to market his grain. Small movements in basis are encouraging sales with the lack of CBOT movement. I look for basis to remain flat in most areas of the US until we hit December when basis will have to do the work if the CBOT hasn’t shown any life.

Barring any negative news or canceled meeting between leaders, I look for the corn market to make a higher move this week and fill the gap created back in July at $4.3275 in the CZ25 contract. If we manage to fill this gap, $4.50 would be my next target.

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Corn rebounded from last week’s selloff with no guidance due to the government shutdown and no reports. It appears that traders are trading a smaller US corn yield than the last government report. (186.7 bpa) December corn ended the week 10 cents higher while March and May futures ended the week 8 and 7 cents higher respectively. The funds are estimated to be short 91,323 corn and long 19,258 soybean contracts. The lack of USDA reports also includes the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) which is an independent US federal agency.

Last Wednesday, President Trump indicated that the US and China were embroiled in a trade war, and that the US would be “nowhere” without tariffs. Chinese President Xi indicated that the Chinese population should sense a crisis and carry forward the spirit of the struggle. Further, Xi suggested that the door is open for US trade talks, but China is ready to fight to the end, developing through struggle rather than compromise.

Former US Secretary Vilsack made comments on Thursday that US soybean farmers may never get back the Chinese market share lost in the trade war. China has built a relationship with Brazil that’s unlikely to change and China’s soybean buying will not go back to the US immediately. Brazilian soybeans are currently trading at a $1.20 premium to US soybeans and are still being purchased by China due to the trade war.

Brazilian crop agency Conab estimated the country’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 177.64 MMT, basically unchanged from their September 177.67 MMT estimate; total corn output was pegged at 138.60 MMT, up from 138.28 MMT last month due to a slight increase in planted area. Brazil will continue to increase acreage which is going to put pressure on the US export demand if they have favorable weather conditions.

I would estimate corn harvest to be 45% complete nationwide based on weather. Historically corn harvest is 40% complete this time of year. Basis remains wide as anticipation of space issues continue as we head deeper into harvest. I would anticipate basis to strengthen when we get to the December timeframe.

The corn market sold off on Friday while following soybeans lower on bearish comments from President Trump. Friday’s news resulted in the Funds recording their biggest selloff in several months adding 30,000 contracts to their short position. Despite the large volume of sales, the market only closed 5 cents lower. For the week December corn lost 6 cents while March and May futures lost 7 cents. The funds ended the week short 126,323 corn and short 5,742 soybean contracts.

Friday morning, China formalized their port fee charges on US ships in response to the US charges that go into effect Tuesday. The charges by China mirror that of the US at $56/ton and will increase over time thru 2028. In response to this announcement, President Trump declared that he is considering massive increases in tariffs on Chinese products coming into the US as well as other countermeasures. He also stated that didn’t see a reason to meet with Chinese president Xi at the APEX summit in Korea in a couple weeks. Prior to Friday’s comments, Trump had been assuring the market that he and Xi were going to meet to discuss US soybean trade and other items. He said that he was confident that he would deliver a trade deal for which China would return to importing soybeans. This negative news resulted in soybeans quickly trading 20 cents lower and corn following the weakness. China has yet to book any new crop soybeans from the US and estimates are that their reserves are large enough that they could cover demand for 3-4 months before needing to buy.

With the government still in shutdown mode, there was no October WASDE released last Thursday, and no weekly crop progress report released. Estimates are that 29% of the US crops have been harvested. Until the government is back up and operating, traders will be relying on their internal data and private group estimates to determine what stocks and production look like.

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Despite a volatile week in the corn markets, they managed to continue their sideways pattern. An early week selloff was followed by a mid-week reversal allowed corn to gain back most of its losses. Following a bearish USDA Stocks report on Tuesday the markets rallied Wednesday on news from President Trump that he was going to help the US producer by rerouting tariff revenues to them and that he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 4 weeks. This is much earlier than expected and looks to be supportive the soybean markets. Strength in the soybean markets spilled over into the corn markets, pulling both higher late in the week. December, March and May futures all ended the week 3 cents lower after trading as much as 13 lower early in the week. The funds ended the week short 98,323 corn and long 2,258 soybean contracts.

On Tuesday the USDA released their September 1^st grain stocks report. Corn and wheat stocks came in well above pre-port estimates, giving the markets a bearish tone. The biggest take-away from the report was the 182-million-bushel shortfall in feed residual use which adds to the current 2025-26 carry-out estimates.

USDA September 1 Stocks (billion bushel)

On Wednesday the government shut down which will have an impact on future government reports.

With the Congress continuing to negotiate votes to continue funding the government, trade is operating on innuendo and intuition. Missing some of these reports will not have a big impact, but there are some that could surprise us when they are resumed. US corn export offers remain the most competitive, so it is assumed that sales will continue the merits of economics. No sales will be announced during the closure, and the only export indications we will have will be on Monday for grain already sold earlier in the season and in the process of loading on ships. The US harvest should be proceeding as normal to above normal, but again crop progress won’t be known specifically, as that too is a report published by the USDA.  With three days of shutdown accomplished, the odds of a quick turnaround and a WASDE/Production report being released on October 9th are very low.

Argentina’s corn crop is up to 20% planted, compared to an average of 16%. Modest rains are expected to be over 70% of the country, with the better accumulations in the eastern half. Both Argentina and Brazil are projected to increase acres and production this year.

Corn harvest was reported at 18% complete this past year, which is right in line with the 5-year average but slightly behind last year.

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