As I mentioned in my previous recap, there was potential for a lot of market movers last week and two of the four were realized. The government is now back to work, and the USDA did not disappoint in shocking everyone with the results in their report. Despite all the news, the market managed to settle close to unchanged with December corn closing 3 cents higher while March and May futures were 2 cents higher. The funds are estimated to be short 72,323 corn and long 128,258 soybean contracts. (There is still no word on when the CFTC will update this report.)

Last Fridays WASDE was the biggest mover of the markets with a lot of disappointment for traders. The report showed a higher old crop carry in and a higher-than-expected yield number. The USDA has been working with a 24/25 balance sheet carry-in of 1,325 billion bushels, but that number jumped 207 million bushels to 1.532 billion bushels. Following a reduction in yield of .7 bushel per acre and a 100 million bushel increase in exports, the new carryout number is 2.154 billion bushels. Surprisingly the only demand increase in Friday’s report was on the export side. Despite strong margins we did not see an increase in ethanol demand. Feed demand was also left unchanged, but many argue that this number is too high and could be reduced in future reports. Below are the numbers from Friday’s report.

2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

2025 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

2025 US Production (Billion Bushels)

The USDA did disclaim at the beginning of the report that “Changes to the U.S. balance sheets continue to reflect all U.S. government data available at the time of publication, but this month, in some cases, that information was limited.” Historically the National Ag Statistics Service does not update crop production in their December report, but given the limited information for the November report one must wonder if they will this year? With Friday’s report, it now feels more likely that we will continue the trend of making small reductions to the overall crop heading towards the January report with the final number likely to finalize somewhere in the 183-184 bushel per acre compared to lower numbers that some were anticipating.

With the government coming back to work, we should start receiving daily and weekly data that has been absent for the last 40+ days. Weekly crop progress, weekly export sales and daily funds position are all slated to start being released. Catchup timelines are not yet known for crop progress and the daily funds position, but the weekly export sales schedule has been released and surprisingly we will not be caught up until January as they work to gather weekly data for down time.

There are still a lot of market movers on the horizon in the coming weeks. The Supreme Courts decision on Trump tariffs legality, updated funds position reports, potential updated WASDE in December and the final yield report in January.

Upcoming reports

We saw a lot of activity in the corn market last week, but the net result was minimal as traders contemplate and wait to see what happens on the China trade front. December corn ended the week 4 cents lower while March and May each ended the week 2 lower. The funds are estimated to be short 57,323 corn and long 132,258 soybean contracts.

Traders focus last week was on the Supreme Courts pending decision regarding Trump-era tariffs. Recent comments suggest concerns about the legitimacy of the “hammer” approach, which involves the executive branch implementing tariffs. While the President has broad control, previous Senate votes struck down certain tariffs, which could indicate potential legislative challenges if the Supreme Court requires Congressional approval for full implementation. This uncertainty leaves all tariff items in limbo and likely delays counterparty actions. With the tariffs in limbo, the Chinese have not been active buyers as they wait to see if they need to sign or comply with their recent verbal agreement to procure goods from the US.

This Friday November 14^th we are expecting to see the much-anticipated WASDE report. There hasn’t been a WASDE report since September 12^th and there has been a mountain of grain activity in the US and around the world since then. As you recall, we did not receive the scheduled October report due to the government shutdown.

Some private analysts released their estimates on yield last week and most continue to expect a yield in the 185-186 bushel per acre area on corn and 53.5 bushel per acre for soybeans. In September the USDA gave us a 186.7 corn yield estimate and 53.5 soybean yield estimate. We have harvested a lot of acres since that September report and during the early part of the harvest, we were hearing a lot of “disappointed” or “good, but not as good as last year” comments from producers in the south and south east (Southern Indiana, Southern Ohio, Southern Illinois and South-central Iowa. As harvest moved further west and north, it seems the reports have shifted to much better than expected and record crop comments.

I am going to question the accuracy of this month’s report as I don’t see how accurate it can be given the skeleton crew that is still working at certain government agencies and the limited time they have had to prepare.

There are a lot of market movers on the horizon this week and in the coming weeks that we need to pay close attention to. Fridays WASDE report, Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs, potential end to the Government shutdown are the big three on my radar. All of these could offer opportunities depending on how they go and what side you are on. I would advise playing your position as close to neutral as possible. Have sales or purchases on for a portion of your needs and take advantage of any opportunities that may arise.

Upcoming reports

There was a lot of bullish activity in the markets last week leading up to the meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Following the meeting trade volume slowed, and we saw a slight selloff, but remained positive for the week. December corn closed 8 higher while March and May futures closed 7 and 6 cents higher respectively. The funds reduced their short position in corn by almost 30,000 contracts and are now short 56,323. They added over 80,000 contracts to their bean position and are long 113,258.

Late last week the two Presidents met as planned in South Korea and reportedly came to an agreement on several things. The US agreed to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean purchases and keeping rare earth metal exports flowing. The market mover for agricultural commodities was that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tonnes of soybeans this year and 25 million metric tonnes for the next three years. This news rallied the soybean market which spilled over into the corn and wheat markets.

With last week’s rally, we were able to fill the CZ25 gap created back in July at $4.3275. As I mentioned last week, I look for $4.50 as the next target for CZ25. Historically the markets tend to move lower to start the month of November before trending higher into the first of the year. With bullish news on the trade front, we could see this climb start earlier than normal. My only hesitation on a stronger board price hinges on details and execution of the Chinese deal. They may be back buying US soybeans, but is it too late and will they comply with the recent agreement?

Following the weekend activity across the Midwest I would estimate harvest progress to be 80% complete compared to 91% last year and 85% on average. Locally I would estimate we are 65% complete, which would trail last year’s 81% but is still ahead of the five-year average of 49%.

Basis in the east is strengthening as harvest has wrapped up, and the producer has bushels put away. Western basis levels are still wide as harvest is still in progress, the crop was better, and demand was absent during harvest. With significant ground piles that need to be picked up, I look for basis to remain wide in the west until the grain starts to move to export channels or basis in the east is strong enough to pull it that direction.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has said they will be releasing their November Crop Production report on November 14^th. This report was originally scheduled for release on November 10^th. This is positive news as most were anticipating this report would not be released as the government is still shut down.

Upcoming reports

The corn market had another uneventful week as traders wait for news of the government returning to work or a trade deal with China, neither of which are on the immediate radar. Corn ended the week 1 higher in the December contract while March and May finished unchanged. The funds are estimated to be short 82,323 corn and long 31,258 soybean contracts.

President Trump is expected to meet with President Xi this week on the 30th in South Korea at the APEC summit.  I am not expecting anything big out of this meeting, but the fact that they are meeting has to be positive. Trump has stated he plans to focus on the illegal drug trade and Ag trade with Xi. China isn’t interested in corn imports from any origin let alone the US as they have enough local supplies to meet demand. The hope is that a deal may get done for soybeans which will add strength to the corn markets.

There is some optimism that the framework of a trade agreement has already been reached between the U.S. and China. Treasury Secretary Bessent was quoted on Face the Nation as saying he expected China to make “substantial” soybean purchases in the future. When talking with Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan, he was quoted as saying “Margaret, I’m not going to give you the details here, but I can tell you the soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years.”

The Trump Administration has reopened the Phase 1 Deal investigation to determine whether China has complied with the original agreement. The Deal, which was orphaned under the Biden Administration, may be hard to enforce based on the legal language that was built into it.

I would estimate corn harvest to be 58% complete nationwide compared to my estimate of 45% last week and 65% last year. Harvest in the north is plodding along with reports of wetter corn, but good yields coming from our draw area. Basis has started to strengthen in Kansas, Ohio and central Illinois where the farmer has been reluctant to market his grain. Small movements in basis are encouraging sales with the lack of CBOT movement. I look for basis to remain flat in most areas of the US until we hit December when basis will have to do the work if the CBOT hasn’t shown any life.

Barring any negative news or canceled meeting between leaders, I look for the corn market to make a higher move this week and fill the gap created back in July at $4.3275 in the CZ25 contract. If we manage to fill this gap, $4.50 would be my next target.

Upcoming reports

Corn rebounded from last week’s selloff with no guidance due to the government shutdown and no reports. It appears that traders are trading a smaller US corn yield than the last government report. (186.7 bpa) December corn ended the week 10 cents higher while March and May futures ended the week 8 and 7 cents higher respectively. The funds are estimated to be short 91,323 corn and long 19,258 soybean contracts. The lack of USDA reports also includes the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) which is an independent US federal agency.

Last Wednesday, President Trump indicated that the US and China were embroiled in a trade war, and that the US would be “nowhere” without tariffs. Chinese President Xi indicated that the Chinese population should sense a crisis and carry forward the spirit of the struggle. Further, Xi suggested that the door is open for US trade talks, but China is ready to fight to the end, developing through struggle rather than compromise.

Former US Secretary Vilsack made comments on Thursday that US soybean farmers may never get back the Chinese market share lost in the trade war. China has built a relationship with Brazil that’s unlikely to change and China’s soybean buying will not go back to the US immediately. Brazilian soybeans are currently trading at a $1.20 premium to US soybeans and are still being purchased by China due to the trade war.

Brazilian crop agency Conab estimated the country’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 177.64 MMT, basically unchanged from their September 177.67 MMT estimate; total corn output was pegged at 138.60 MMT, up from 138.28 MMT last month due to a slight increase in planted area. Brazil will continue to increase acreage which is going to put pressure on the US export demand if they have favorable weather conditions.

I would estimate corn harvest to be 45% complete nationwide based on weather. Historically corn harvest is 40% complete this time of year. Basis remains wide as anticipation of space issues continue as we head deeper into harvest. I would anticipate basis to strengthen when we get to the December timeframe.