Another week of sideways trade as the USDA’s WASDE report failed to give the markets any short-term direction. Weather in South America continues to be favorable, especially in Brazil which is keeping long term pressure on the markets. March futures ended the week 4 lower while May and July futures both closed 3 cents lower. Funds are estimated to be long 34,788 corn and long 169,477 soybean contracts. The CFTC reports are now caught up through November 18^th, and we have seen a significant change in the corn position they are holding.

Last week’s WASDE report was bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and neutral to negative for wheat relative to pre-report expectations. The January report now holds the potential for more changes to the balance sheet given the release of final production and quarterly stocks. The USDA made minor adjustments to corn exports (increased 125 million bushels) this month to supply and demand forecasts. Below are the numbers from last week’s report.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

The year is quickly coming to an end as we have just over 11 days of trade left in 2025. The market will continue focus on developing South American crops and production potential along with monitoring the pace of soybean sales and shipments to China with expectations for significant volumes in the coming weeks. Traders will have to wait until the January 12th crop production and grain stocks report to see if any of the expected changes will be made to the balance sheet.  CFTC and export numbers are expected to be caught up by the end of December, which is a month earlier than originally reported.

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Following a choppy week of trade the markets settled slightly lower last week with March futures losing 3 cents while May and July futures lost 4 and 3 cents respectively. Comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin early in the week gave the markets strength only to be taken back later in the week. The funds are estimated to be short 79,425 corn and long 160,019 soybeans.

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened on Tuesday to sever Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to drone attacks on tankers of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea. He said Russia would intensify strikes on Ukrainian facilities and vessels and would take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine. These comments resulted in a nice bounce for corn and wheat on thoughts that world supplies may be limited. Russia and Ukraine account for 27% of all global wheat exports. Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest corn exporter behind only the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

The USDA will release their Crop Production report on Tuesday December 9^th. Traditionally, the December report gives us no update on production and slight adjustments to demand and carryout. I expect the same this year but given the way things played out for the November report due to the government shutdown (lack of data from an October report, limited time to gather the data), we could see some fireworks in this year’s report. Below are the estimates heading into Tuesday.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

Brazilian soybean planting is 92% complete while first crop corn planting is basically complete at 97%. In Argentina soybean planting is 49% complete and corn planting is 57% complete. North and Central Brazil are in good shape with favorable weather while the southern areas are dry.

We have two full weeks of trade left in 2025, and I look for limited volume in much of that timeframe. Unless the WASDE surprises us on Tuesday, we are likely to close out the year trading in the same range we have been for the last couple months.

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A combination of technical buying and optimism of an increase in export sales helped rally the markets last week. We didn’t break out of our current range but did move back to the upper range following Fridays close. For the week December and March futures closed 10 cents higher while May and July futures ended the week 11 cents higher. The funds are estimated to be short 120,492 corn and long 146,126 soybean contracts.

President’s Xi and Trump both made positive comments on trade talk progress after a phone call last Monday that was initiated by XI. President Xi invited President Trump to Beijing in April and President Trump reciprocated with an invite the United States later. Following that call Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins stated that China would be signing the trade agreement in the next couple weeks. She also mentioned that farmer aid will be announced soon. The dates and timing of both subjects have been very vague to say the least.

In a statement last week, the National Agricultural Statistics Service announced that data collection is underway for the January 12^th crop report. During the first two weeks of December, NASS will survey 75,000 US producers to gather data on harvested acres, production and bushels in storage. NASS will not update production numbers for the upcoming December 9^th WASDE report. The only potential changes in that report will be demand and foreign production. This is significant as there have been some talks of adjustments to production in the December report due to the lack of time to gather data for the November report.

Historically the markets begin their winter rally as we exit November and head into December. Except for 2024, March futures have rallied or traded flat in the month of December. Will this year’s record crop and lack of new demand keep futures from rallying, or will we follow the historical trends and trade higher in the coming month as we await the final USDA production report in January.

March futures seasonal trend from 2016-2025

Last week’s crop progress report showed a 5% increase from the previous week with 96% of the US corn crop in the bin. This will be the last harvest report for the year with the remaining 4% expected to be harvested.

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Corn futures continued their trend of higher one week and lower the next as futures traded lower again last week. December corn was down 5 cents while March and May were both down 7 cents. December corn has been trading in the $4.25-4.40 range the past month and appears it will continue into expiration. With Friday being first notice day for December futures and the funds estimated to be short December futures, we could see a slight bounce this week as they exit or roll their positions. The funds are estimated to be short 114,112 corn contracts and long 130,901 soybean contracts.

The USDA has been releasing some reports, but all the information is old and thus has been brushed aside. Last week’s export sales report dated back to 10/2/25 and showed corn sales at 89 million bushels. The US appears to be the best market for corn as it is currently trading $10/metric ton under Brazilian corn. At the 5-week mark of the marketing year(Oct 2^nd report), corn is well ahead of any other year in history for sales. Given the ample US supply and current price discount, this could continue for some time.

Lat weeks crop progress report showed 91% of the US corn crop in the bin which is behind last year by 7% and slightly behind the five-year average of 94%. Favorable weather last week should have allowed decent progress. Monday afternoon’s report will be the last harvest progress report for the year.

With a trade shortened holiday week and first notice day for December futures we could see some action early in the week but minimal trade on Wednesday and Friday. Open interest in the December contract is close to 200,000 contracts as of Friday.

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As I mentioned in my previous recap, there was potential for a lot of market movers last week and two of the four were realized. The government is now back to work, and the USDA did not disappoint in shocking everyone with the results in their report. Despite all the news, the market managed to settle close to unchanged with December corn closing 3 cents higher while March and May futures were 2 cents higher. The funds are estimated to be short 72,323 corn and long 128,258 soybean contracts. (There is still no word on when the CFTC will update this report.)

Last Fridays WASDE was the biggest mover of the markets with a lot of disappointment for traders. The report showed a higher old crop carry in and a higher-than-expected yield number. The USDA has been working with a 24/25 balance sheet carry-in of 1,325 billion bushels, but that number jumped 207 million bushels to 1.532 billion bushels. Following a reduction in yield of .7 bushel per acre and a 100 million bushel increase in exports, the new carryout number is 2.154 billion bushels. Surprisingly the only demand increase in Friday’s report was on the export side. Despite strong margins we did not see an increase in ethanol demand. Feed demand was also left unchanged, but many argue that this number is too high and could be reduced in future reports. Below are the numbers from Friday’s report.

2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

2025 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

2025 US Production (Billion Bushels)

The USDA did disclaim at the beginning of the report that “Changes to the U.S. balance sheets continue to reflect all U.S. government data available at the time of publication, but this month, in some cases, that information was limited.” Historically the National Ag Statistics Service does not update crop production in their December report, but given the limited information for the November report one must wonder if they will this year? With Friday’s report, it now feels more likely that we will continue the trend of making small reductions to the overall crop heading towards the January report with the final number likely to finalize somewhere in the 183-184 bushel per acre compared to lower numbers that some were anticipating.

With the government coming back to work, we should start receiving daily and weekly data that has been absent for the last 40+ days. Weekly crop progress, weekly export sales and daily funds position are all slated to start being released. Catchup timelines are not yet known for crop progress and the daily funds position, but the weekly export sales schedule has been released and surprisingly we will not be caught up until January as they work to gather weekly data for down time.

There are still a lot of market movers on the horizon in the coming weeks. The Supreme Courts decision on Trump tariffs legality, updated funds position reports, potential updated WASDE in December and the final yield report in January.

Upcoming reports