The markets ended on a strong note last week, closing 10 higher in Friday’s trade despite a neutral USDA report. December corn ended the week 12 cents higher while March and May futures ended the week 11 and 10 cents higher respectively. The funds reduced their corn short position ending the week short 76,593 contracts. They are currently short 7,382 soybean contracts.

Friday’s report was neutral for corn as the domestic balance sheet calls for larger supplies, larger exports and slightly smaller ending stocks. Corn yield was lowered to 186.7 bushels per acre versus the 188.8 we saw in August. Harvested acreage increased from 88.6 million acres in August to 90.0 in September.

Total production was higher as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield was more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area.  Exports were raised by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion, which offset all the increased production. Ending stocks were reduced slightly to 2.110 billion bushels. Global corn production was lowered slightly, primarily on decreases in the EU and Russia. Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 281.4 million metric tons. This was slightly below analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 282.8 million metric tons but within the range of estimates (279.7 to 287.6 million range).

USDA 2025 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2025 US Harvested Acreage (Million Acres)

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

While the report was neutral to bearish, the market seems to be excited about TS Bessent’s upcoming meeting with China’s Vice Premier this week in Madrid. The market had similar reactions on 7/2, 7/18, and 8/11 to upcoming meetings. It is worth noting, two of these rallies were followed by swift selloffs when deals did not materialize.

I feel it is important to keep in mind that Fridays yield report is based on early harvest and limited physical sampling. A lot of the test weights that are used in the sampling are presuming good ear fill down the stretch. With the dryer weather we have had over the last month, I would anticipate test weights to come in lighter than those used in the sampling assumptions. I look for a further reduction in yield due to test weights and am sticking to my estimate of 184.0 bushel per acre when we get the final report in January.

With Friday’s rally, we closed only .0275 cents off of the gap in CZ25 that I mentioned last week as the next target. Mondays open and close will be a good indicator if this recent strength holds through harvest.

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Trade was quiet last week as traders returned from the Labor Day weekend. December corn ended the week 2 cents lower while March and May futures lost 1 cent. The funds ended the week short 93,197 corn and long 6,416 soybean contracts.

While the markets were quite last week, there were a few noteworthy items that could impact the markets long term.

The first came when The White House announced that President Trump had signed an Executive Order to officially implement the new U.S.–Japan trade agreement. As part of the deal, Japan is moving to expedite a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases, while the U.S. will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. In addition, the two countries issued a memorandum of understanding outlining $550 billion in planned Japanese investments in the U.S., to be carried out through January 19, 2029, underscoring both the trade and investment dimensions of the accord. While the rice deal may not directly impact corn, it sets the stage for additional commodities to be purchased. Japan was the second largest importer of US corn with 532 million bushels purchased of the 2024/25 crop.

Private analysts StoneX and Allendale released their farmer survey results for this year’s crop. StoneX estimated the national corn yield at 186.9 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s 188.8 that was released in August. Allendale estimated the corn yield at 187.5 bushels per acre, which was also below the USDA’s estimate. Dry weather in August and the prevalence of disease (southern rust) hitting corn fields are the reasons we may be looking at a smaller crop than the USDA estimated. Southern Rust has been showing up in many areas of the northern corn belt over the last several weeks. This disease thrives in warm, wet conditions and is spread by the wind blowing spores. Rust prematurely kills the plant leading to diminished grain fill and stock rot that can cause the plant to fall. It is too early to determine the impact this disease may have on the final yield, but losses are expected.

With the flip of the calendar to September we will begin to get yield reports from some of the major corn growing states. I am aware of combines rolling in IA, IL and IN and look for reports to start rolling out next week.

We didn’t lose much ground last week, and I still look at $4.3275 for the CZ25 (December futures) as the next target. The lows are historically set in late August and the first week of September so we will know real soon if this trend continues.

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Profit taking by the funds was the motivating factor in the corn market as they reduced their short position to end the week, month and quarter. December, March and May corn all ended the week 9 cents higher. The funds reduced their short position in corn by 30,000 contracts with Fridays buying. The funds ended the month short 79,935 corn contracts and long 23,145 soybean contracts.

Harvest has been taking place in the south and will continue to work its way north, especially following the Labor Day weekend. Early yields are mixed with some areas reporting records and others reporting average. This is the case every year as producers head to the fields. The challenge this year for the markets will be to determine if the crops potential is as high as the USDA’s August estimate. No one questions that this year’s yield should be a record, its just trying to determine by how much. August finished abnormally dry across much of the corn belt, with cooler temperatures setting in the last couple of weeks. This is not ideal for finishing the crop and could lower the final yield. How big an impact this will have on final ear fill and yield will be known in the next 30+ days as the crop comes off and official yields are reported.

Looking ahead to where the markets are going in the next 60 days will all start on Tuesday. Will we be able to carry Friday’s strength and manage a higher close? If so, I look at $4.3275 for the CZ25 (December futures) as the next target. The markets traded lower coming out of the July 4^th weekend and left a gap at this level that I believe we will get back to. If the markets fail to close stronger on Tuesday, I would target $4.00 as the next support level.

Last week’s crop progress report showed corn in the dented stage at 44% which is in line with the 5-year average.

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Corn had a firmer week and continued to move higher following the previous week’s USDA report. With daily reports of slightly lower yields coming from the Pro Farmer tour, traders began to reduce their short position. September corn ended the week 4 cents higher while December and March closed 6 cents higher. The funds ended the week short 96,637 corn and long 12,247 soybean contracts.

Pro Farmer conducted their popular crop tour last week which surveyed 2000 + corn and soybean fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. Following Fridays CBOT close they released their national yield estimate which came in at 182.7 bushels per acre for corn. This is 6.1 bushel per acre below the estimate that the USDA gave us the previous week. Over the past 15 years, the farm publication’s tour reports have averaged 3-4 bushels per acre below USDA final values released in January.

The charts appear to be supportive and the seasonals tell us it’s not uncommon to find a seasonal low in August, even in years where crop expectations are high. Buyers locking in corn prices during the last weeks of August through the first week of September are usually buying at the CBOT lows. As I said last week, I am in the 184 bushel per acre camp when all is said and done with the 2025 crop. We are a few weeks away from getting some good data when the combines begin to hit the field in the major corn producing states. Demand for new crop US corn has been strong with great export sales while margins in livestock and ethanol have been very good. Any reduction in yield from the USDA’s August estimate, changes the carryout equation from burdensome to balanced. This is why I believe the markets will work slightly higher as we move forward.

Last week’s crop progress report showed corn in the dented stage at 27% which is in line with the 5-year average.

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The corn market made new contract lows following Tuesdays WASDE report but managed to bounce off the mat and end the week on a strong note. September futures ended 1 cent higher for the week while December and March futures ended unchanged. The funds ended the week short 119,339 corn and short 20,233 soybean contracts.

Tuesdays USDA report gave the markets a lot of bearish news beginning with a massive 188.8 bpa (bushel per acre) corn yield. This was 4.5 bpa better than the average trade estimate. This also beat last year’s record yield by 9.5 bpa. State records are expected in 7 of the top 10 corn producing states. Iowa, the top corn producing state in the country, would best last year’s record by 11 bpa at 222 bpa.

In addition to the increase in yield, planted acreage was bumped to match the highest acreage ever planted to corn. Planted and harvested acres were raised to 97.3 (+2.1) and 88.7 (+1.9) million, respectively. If realized, U.S. production would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-24.

USDA 2024/25 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2025/26 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

On Monday the United States and China have extended a tariff truce for another 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on each other’s goods as U.S. retailers get ready to ramp up inventories ahead of the critical end-of-year holiday season. Most expected this move to happen as the two countries continue to have dialog only at a slower pace than desired.

Pro Farmer will conduct their popular crop tour starting on Monday 8/18/25 in Indiana and Nebraska and wrapping up on Thursday 8/21/2025 in Minnesota. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour provides insights into potential corn and soybean production and gathers data from 2,000+ fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

The big yield and added acres were absorbed well by the market as the market couldn’t breach new lows after the report on Tuesday. The market appeared to gather some upward momentum late in the week as the shock of Tuesdays report wore off. Some technicians noted the increased volume of trade as prices climbed on Friday showing upward momentum. I believe Tuesdays yield is the biggest we will see for the year and when the final report is handed out in January, we will be back down to 184 bpa. This will still be a record crop, but not as bearish as the number we saw this week. I look for the markets to trade sideways to higher in the next few weeks.

Corn condition ratings came in at 72% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 63% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 94% and 58% respectively.

Upcoming reports