A trade shortened holiday week didn’t keep the funds from adding to their short position in corn last week. March, May and July futures all lost 12 cents and now have March futures testing their $4.35 support level of the last two months. The funds are short 39,208 corn and long 85,261 soybean contracts with the latest CFTC report covering through December 23^rd. (We should be up to date on both CFTC and export sales by the end of this week)

The job of the market over the next couple months is to cut corn acres either by increasing soybean prices or lowering corn prices. There should be a natural decline in acres due to rotations back to soybeans, unfortunately soybean futures continue to be on the decline and support corn. The recent $11 billion bridge payment that was announced on December 31^st will not help cut corn acres either. With corn receiving $44.36/acre and soybeans $30.88/acre the incentive to decrease corn acreage is diminished. These payments could buy or retain acres in the fringe areas, where $44 increases income 8-10%. With corn having a greater upside in yield I believe the markets are going to struggle to take many acres away unless we see a significant shift in values between the two commodities. If we fail to see an acreage shift it will be difficult to see carryout in 2027 fall below 2 billion bushels which would mean corn values long term remain flat at best.

For us to have a chance at trading nearby futures north of $4.50 on a consistent basis we need some sort of production issue in South America or weather issues here in the United States this spring. Argentina will be the first area to watch as its corn crop was recently planted. Brazil’s safrinha corn crop will not go into the ground until after the soybeans are harvested in late January and February. It seems like we will continue to see a lid on March futures around the $4.50 level until something new comes into the picture.

We are one week away from the much-anticipated January WASDE. We should start to see estimates from private groups this week. I am expecting a drop in yield that should be offset by a drop in feed demand. The key could be any adjustment to export demand as that has been very strong to this point. I will share those estimates in next week’s recap. In the meantime, I would advise working with your Didion sales representatives to get offers in place ahead of the report. We often have a lot of opportunities to capture good values in the first 30 minutes following the release of data when algorithmic trading takes place. I look for the markets to remain flat thru the first quarter of the year as we work thru a large harvest and get a better understanding of what export demand looks like long term, how south Americas crop is progressing and what planting intentions look like in the US.

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With a shortened week of trading and light volumes corn managed to find some strength, closing 6 higher in the March and July contracts while May futures closed 7 higher. The funds are estimated to be short 19,366 corn and long 154,474 soybean contracts.

Headlines about Ukraine shipping troubles and the Russian conflict added support to the markets last week. Ukraine is reporting that Russian attacks on infrastructure and ports have slowed grain exports during December. According to the Ukraine Farm Union, Ukraine wheat and corn exports are significantly below commitments. Several smaller exporters in Ukraine have defaulted on sales with the demand shifting to other suppliers. Ukraine exports are down 300 million bushels versus a year ago, which has pushed US corn exports higher by a similar amount.

The government continues to be slow to reconcile reports since the shutdown.  They have all the data but have failed to put it together and send it out. Every boat is registered for freight and every reportable position to the CFTC has long been reported so why this data hasn’t been released continues to puzzle me. Reports are that we will have all of the data by the end of the year, but we will see if that timeline is met.

Overall, the corn market has performed very well against the break in beans.  I think this is positive for corn heading into the end of the year and eventually the January Crop Report.

The markets will trade full hours on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday this week and be closed on Thursday. I look for light volume again this week with traders out of the office. Next week we can get back to a normal trade schedule and hopefully have all data updated and reported for traders as we prepare for the January 12^th report. The corn markets put in their winter high following the January crop report last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened again this year.

Happy New Year!

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The corn market closed higher last week as demand remains strong on the export side. The market continues to digest export sales reports that are slowly being caught up by the government. Rumors on Thursday of Chinese interest in US corn rallied the markets and carried over in to Friday. March, May and July futures all ended the week 3 higher following a bounce. The funds are estimated to be long 34,835 corn and long 165,787 soybean contracts.

Demand on the export front continues to support corn prices.  Accumulated export sales are well ahead of last year and the 5-year average. We are still in the first quarter of the marketing year and a couple months from seeing competition from South America. It could be that other countries are front loading their purchases with the US offering the cheapest corn on the world market or is this a trend that will last longer with cheap prices? The dollar index has been collapsing against world currencies since the end of November, which has supported US exports. If the dollar continues to slide, it will keep our commodities cheaper to importing countries and add support long term to corn. The USDA has a lofty goal of 3.2 billion bushels for export which if achieved it would be 12% higher than last year’s record 2.858 billion bushels. We are currently on track to export 3.35 billion bushels.

Reports circulated last week that the EPA expects to issue its final ruling on the 2026 & 2027 biofuel blending mandates in the first quarter of next year (after originally expecting to see it happen earlier this fall). The delay would throw one of the administration’s most consequential energy policy choices into next year and folds the highly anticipated quotas into a growing cluster of interlocking decisions the White House is weighing on biofuels policy.

The year is quickly coming to an end, and we have limited trade hours this week. The markets will trade full hours on Monday, Tuesday and Friday. The market does close at 12:05pm on Wednesday and will remain closed until Friday morning. I look for limited volume in the markets as many traders to be off all week for the holidays. Any outside noise (China export sales, political moves, etc.) could lead to volatile trade with limited traders. The CFTC and export sales will both catch up next week, which will help us head into January with all eyes on the USDA’s WASDE.

Merry Christmas!

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Another week of sideways trade as the USDA’s WASDE report failed to give the markets any short-term direction. Weather in South America continues to be favorable, especially in Brazil which is keeping long term pressure on the markets. March futures ended the week 4 lower while May and July futures both closed 3 cents lower. Funds are estimated to be long 34,788 corn and long 169,477 soybean contracts. The CFTC reports are now caught up through November 18^th, and we have seen a significant change in the corn position they are holding.

Last week’s WASDE report was bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and neutral to negative for wheat relative to pre-report expectations. The January report now holds the potential for more changes to the balance sheet given the release of final production and quarterly stocks. The USDA made minor adjustments to corn exports (increased 125 million bushels) this month to supply and demand forecasts. Below are the numbers from last week’s report.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

The year is quickly coming to an end as we have just over 11 days of trade left in 2025. The market will continue focus on developing South American crops and production potential along with monitoring the pace of soybean sales and shipments to China with expectations for significant volumes in the coming weeks. Traders will have to wait until the January 12th crop production and grain stocks report to see if any of the expected changes will be made to the balance sheet.  CFTC and export numbers are expected to be caught up by the end of December, which is a month earlier than originally reported.

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Following a choppy week of trade the markets settled slightly lower last week with March futures losing 3 cents while May and July futures lost 4 and 3 cents respectively. Comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin early in the week gave the markets strength only to be taken back later in the week. The funds are estimated to be short 79,425 corn and long 160,019 soybeans.

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened on Tuesday to sever Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to drone attacks on tankers of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea. He said Russia would intensify strikes on Ukrainian facilities and vessels and would take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine. These comments resulted in a nice bounce for corn and wheat on thoughts that world supplies may be limited. Russia and Ukraine account for 27% of all global wheat exports. Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest corn exporter behind only the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

The USDA will release their Crop Production report on Tuesday December 9^th. Traditionally, the December report gives us no update on production and slight adjustments to demand and carryout. I expect the same this year but given the way things played out for the November report due to the government shutdown (lack of data from an October report, limited time to gather the data), we could see some fireworks in this year’s report. Below are the estimates heading into Tuesday.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

Brazilian soybean planting is 92% complete while first crop corn planting is basically complete at 97%. In Argentina soybean planting is 49% complete and corn planting is 57% complete. North and Central Brazil are in good shape with favorable weather while the southern areas are dry.

We have two full weeks of trade left in 2025, and I look for limited volume in much of that timeframe. Unless the WASDE surprises us on Tuesday, we are likely to close out the year trading in the same range we have been for the last couple months.

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