The corn market was under pressure last week with near perfect planting conditions across the country over the last 7 days and improving South American crop conditions. July corn closed 19 cents lower while September and December futures lost 11 and 8 cents respectively. The funds have completely exited their long position in corn and are now short 10,981 contracts. They are currently long 31,728 soybean contracts.

This weekend the United States and China reached a preliminary trade agreement following two days of intensive negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the American delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng represented China. The talks aimed to address the escalating trade war that had seen the U.S. impose tariffs up to 145% on Chinese imports and China retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Specific details of the agreement are set to be released on Monday. The deal focuses on reducing the significant U.S. trade deficit with China, which stands at approximately $295 billion. The agreement also seeks to resolve issues related to intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and forced technology transfers—concerns that have long strained U.S.-China trade relations. This development is seen as a significant step toward de-escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies

Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting 40% complete compared to 24% the previous week and 39% on average. With favorable weather over the last 7 days, we should see these numbers significantly higher in this afternoons report.

On Monday at 11AM the USDA will release its monthly WASDE report which will give us a look at the 2024/25 and the 2025/26 carryout estimates. Expectations are for lower stocks in 2024/25 due to the strong export pace we have seen. 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated to be over 2 billion bushels due to the projected size of this year’s crops in the US and South America. These numbers are estimates based on potential acres, yields and demand. Keep in mind that a year ago we were well over 2 billion bushels with expectations and are now sub 1.5 billion.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels

USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

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Favorable planting progress along with fading weather concerns weighed on the markets this past week. July corn futures took the biggest hit closing 16 cents lower, while September and December futures each lost 6 cents this past week. The funds ended the week long 93,129 corn and 72,928 soybean contracts.

Last week brought moisture directly across the heartland of the U.S. with nearly the entire nation seeing wetter conditions than the week prior. In the main row crop producing states, topsoil water surpluses range from 10-30 percent which will be beneficial to getting the crop started.

In Brazil the past two weeks have seen rains stay above average. Two to five inches of rain have fallen in this timeframe. They are 2 weeks from the end of the critical growth period for their Safrinha corn crop. The soil moisture levels are sufficient to carry the crops through harvest. To complement the rainfall, temperatures are expected to be slightly below average.

Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting doubled from the previous week to 24% complete. This is ahead of the five-year average by 2%. Corn emergence rose from 2% to 5%, which is ahead of the five-year average by 1%. We should see progress climb again in this afternoon’s report as most areas of the US had 3-4 days of decent weather before getting rained out late in the week.

The next three weeks are going to be a lot about planting progress along with short- and long-term weather forecasts. Long term forecasts are calling for a warmer and drought-like pattern to hit the US growing areas in late May to early June. We are not lacking moisture this spring but will have to see what happens in the coming months.

Basis levels continue to strengthen with lower CBOT prices, producers busy in the fields and tighter than anticipated stocks. If exports stay at current levels into the summer months, things could get interesting in August and September. I think we will see basis weaken a touch once the planting is complete (early to mid-June) but do expect it to come roaring back late summer. Ending stocks have dropped in the last 3 USDA reports and I expect the same to happen in the May 12^th report.

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Tariff talk, weather and planting progress were the news this past week within the grain markets. All three of them are pulling the market in different directions at different times. That seems to be the theme lately, especially with Tariffs where it has been day to day on what’s going to come next. May and July corn ended the week 3 and 5 cents lower respectively while December futures closed 10 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 136,414 corn contracts and long 56,245 soybean contracts.

President trump told TIME magazine in an interview that U.S. – China talks were taking place on tariffs and that some progress could be seen very soon. China has apparently exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, according to businesses that have been notified. The U.S. and Japan continue to talk about a trade agreement with Japan, considering increasing its Ag imports from the U.S., but no definitive quantity has been shared.

The U.S. continues to be the worlds largest exporter of grains as prices remain competitive to South America and should remain that way until the Argentina or Brazilian crops start to move to market. By early June I would expect to see a shift in buying move to South American grains, especially if we are still dealing with tariffs or the talk of them.

Last Monday’s crop progress report showed national corn planting progress at 12% complete, up from 4% last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average. Soybean planting rose from 2% to 8% and is ahead of the five-year average of 5%. The consensus is that these numbers were short of the actual percentage planted due to the holiday and not all the data being gathered. I am expecting a significant jump this week with favorable weather across much of the country last week.

The forecast for the FH of May looks pretty good – as such, fears that the crop won’t get in the ground will fade.  Every year we go through a checklist: 1. Acres to be planted 2. Planting completion 3. Pollination 4. Maturity 5. Harvest.  We are approximately 3-4 weeks away from completing the first 2 items on that checklist, then we will wait about 6-8 weeks before we can mark off pollination.

We continue to see basis strengthening across the U.S. I believe the current strength is a not a result of the grain not being there, but rather the result of a lack of logistics to move it. The farmer is busy in the field and doesn’t have time to move his stored grain and plant this year’s crop regardless of what the market is telling him to do. A stronger basis is getting commercials and some producers to the market to quench the processor needs until planting is complete. I think we will see basis weaken a touch once the planting is complete (early to mid-June)

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In a shortened week of trade, we saw corn futures pullback with May and July futures closing 8 and 7 cents lower respectively. December futures managed to close 2 cents higher on the heels of a slightly slower planting pace this past week.

US corn planting progress came in at 4% complete last week (4/13/25) and was double the previous week’s pace but behind 6% last year, 5% on average, and the 6% trade estimate. Soybean plantings were initially reported at 2%, even with the five-year average but behind 3% both LY and as expected. I look for Monday nights (4/21/25) progress to show a nice bump in corn planting with reports of significant progress across Iowa and Nebraska last week.

We are halfway through the pollination period for Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop. There were concerns about dry weather, especially in the state of Mato Grosso, but the rain came at the right time. The next 14-day forecast is ideal for this time of year. Moderate temperatures with above-average rainfall have been seen in three of the four major producing states since the beginning of the critical pollination timeframe. April has had the most positive weather since the season began. This is overall supportive of the estimated trendline yield.

There continues to be a lot of news around tariffs, but it had very little impact on the grain markets this past week. Japan and the US continue to negotiate face to face with President Trump calling the talks productive. Trump also highlighted his phone calls with the president of Mexico as productive. The tariffs haven’t impacted the top two destinations for US corn so far. I feel that if Mexico is willing to negotiate, we will continue to see decent corn exports, at least until the South American crop hits the pipeline.

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The markets were on fire this past week fueled by a USDA report and postponed tariffs. May and July futures each ended the week 30 cents higher while December futures closed 17 higher. The funds are rolling back into the commodities as they ended the week long 161,184 corn contracts and are now long 2,666 soybean contracts. This is the first time the funds have been long soybeans in over a month.

On Wednesday President Trump abruptly paused part of his tariff assault on global trading partners, dialing back duty rates on goods from many countries for 90 days to allow room to negotiate lower trade barriers. One country he didn’t dial back was China where he raised tariffs to 125%. China countered his tariffs by implementing their own tariff on US goods to 125% which resulted in Trump increasing their tariff to 145%. I look for this game of chicken to continue until someone gets caught without something they need from the other because their consumers can’t afford it.

On Thursday the USDA released their April Crop Production report. There were not many surprises, but we did see ending stocks decrease due to adjustments in exports that we have witnessed over the last few months. They increased the export program by 100 million bushels in this report. Even with this increase there are many traders that feel it could be increased another 100-125 million bushels. The question remains if our export program has been front loaded due to the tariffs. My opinion is that we will not continue at the current pace and once the South American stocks are more readily available, we will see a sharp decline.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

We witnessed this past week that any sign of hope that tariffs will be reduced is immediately met by sharp upside price action. I think this is a sign of what is possible if President Trump can pull this off. I don’t know how long and painful the process might be, but the outlook is bearish if he is able to come to agreements with our major trade partners. We could see increased exports and much stronger markets.

The lower carryout in last Thursday’s report has resulted in a stocks/use ratio of 9.6%. Historically anytime we drop below 10% stocks to use, the CBOT trades in the five-dollar range. Look for the market to continue its climb to this level in the May and July contracts.

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