Corn had a firmer week and continued to move higher following the previous week’s USDA report. With daily reports of slightly lower yields coming from the Pro Farmer tour, traders began to reduce their short position. September corn ended the week 4 cents higher while December and March closed 6 cents higher. The funds ended the week short 96,637 corn and long 12,247 soybean contracts.

Pro Farmer conducted their popular crop tour last week which surveyed 2000 + corn and soybean fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. Following Fridays CBOT close they released their national yield estimate which came in at 182.7 bushels per acre for corn. This is 6.1 bushel per acre below the estimate that the USDA gave us the previous week. Over the past 15 years, the farm publication’s tour reports have averaged 3-4 bushels per acre below USDA final values released in January.

The charts appear to be supportive and the seasonals tell us it’s not uncommon to find a seasonal low in August, even in years where crop expectations are high. Buyers locking in corn prices during the last weeks of August through the first week of September are usually buying at the CBOT lows. As I said last week, I am in the 184 bushel per acre camp when all is said and done with the 2025 crop. We are a few weeks away from getting some good data when the combines begin to hit the field in the major corn producing states. Demand for new crop US corn has been strong with great export sales while margins in livestock and ethanol have been very good. Any reduction in yield from the USDA’s August estimate, changes the carryout equation from burdensome to balanced. This is why I believe the markets will work slightly higher as we move forward.

Last week’s crop progress report showed corn in the dented stage at 27% which is in line with the 5-year average.

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The corn market made new contract lows following Tuesdays WASDE report but managed to bounce off the mat and end the week on a strong note. September futures ended 1 cent higher for the week while December and March futures ended unchanged. The funds ended the week short 119,339 corn and short 20,233 soybean contracts.

Tuesdays USDA report gave the markets a lot of bearish news beginning with a massive 188.8 bpa (bushel per acre) corn yield. This was 4.5 bpa better than the average trade estimate. This also beat last year’s record yield by 9.5 bpa. State records are expected in 7 of the top 10 corn producing states. Iowa, the top corn producing state in the country, would best last year’s record by 11 bpa at 222 bpa.

In addition to the increase in yield, planted acreage was bumped to match the highest acreage ever planted to corn. Planted and harvested acres were raised to 97.3 (+2.1) and 88.7 (+1.9) million, respectively. If realized, U.S. production would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-24.

USDA 2024/25 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2025/26 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

On Monday the United States and China have extended a tariff truce for another 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on each other’s goods as U.S. retailers get ready to ramp up inventories ahead of the critical end-of-year holiday season. Most expected this move to happen as the two countries continue to have dialog only at a slower pace than desired.

Pro Farmer will conduct their popular crop tour starting on Monday 8/18/25 in Indiana and Nebraska and wrapping up on Thursday 8/21/2025 in Minnesota. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour provides insights into potential corn and soybean production and gathers data from 2,000+ fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

The big yield and added acres were absorbed well by the market as the market couldn’t breach new lows after the report on Tuesday. The market appeared to gather some upward momentum late in the week as the shock of Tuesdays report wore off. Some technicians noted the increased volume of trade as prices climbed on Friday showing upward momentum. I believe Tuesdays yield is the biggest we will see for the year and when the final report is handed out in January, we will be back down to 184 bpa. This will still be a record crop, but not as bearish as the number we saw this week. I look for the markets to trade sideways to higher in the next few weeks.

Corn condition ratings came in at 72% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 63% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 94% and 58% respectively.

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Corn chopped around last week as weather forecasts continue to look non-threatening ahead of next week’s USDA report. September corn lost 6 cents on the week while December and March futures closed 5 cents lower. December futures managed to break below the $4 level on Wednesday reaching $3.9675 before closing higher. This will serve as our new support level for now, but I expect Tuesdays report to test it. The funds ended the week short 134,848 corn and 73,594 soybean contracts.

Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move along slowly, advancing only 1.3% last week to reach 89.3% complete. This trails last year by 7% and the five-year average by 3%. This slower pace of harvest is a major reason US old crop exports have been so good coming down the stretch.

New crop US corn sales are picking up and gave the markets some support last Thursday with a whopping 124.5 million bushel reported. 2025/26 new crop sales are currently the second highest in the last 10 years. Low prices and expectations for a larger crop have supported sales.

Tuesday the USDA will release August Production report. The average yield estimates are 184.3 for corn and 52.9 for soybeans, but it sounds like traders’ estimates are higher for both crops due to excellent condition reports & strong satellite imagery.

USDA 2024/25 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2025/26 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Corn condition ratings came in at 73% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 88% and 42% respectively.

Upcoming reports

Corn continued to grind lower last week with favorable weather, crop conditions and traders’ confidence in a record US crop as we enter August. September futures closed 10 cents lower while December and March futures closed 8 cents lower last week. The funds ended the week short 141,944 corn and 38,772 soybean contracts.

Weather across the US looks to be near normal with below normal precipitation in the 5–10-day range. A period of hotter and drier temperatures are expected in the 10–15-day forecasts. Several areas across the corn belt could benefit from some dryer weather in the coming week or two.

December and March futures each lost 12 cents during the month of July, although it seemed like a lot more. The December low at $4.075 from a couple weeks ago remains intact but may get tested before the next WASDE report. I think the funds are going to continue to hold on to their short positions until we start to see some new crop producer sales. The US producer is staring at a record crop with very few sales on the books. In my opinion this is telling the funds to hold onto their short positions as the market could trend lower. I think the traders are currently trading a 186 bpa yield. We may see that number printed a few times by the USDA in the coming months, but I think we will be below that in the final report that comes in January. I would still advise anyone needing to put on coverage for Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 to take advantage of current prices, as we are always one political headline away from the markets doing an about face!

Corn condition ratings came in at 73% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 68% and the 64% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 76% and 26% respectively.

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Last week was a slower and lower week in the corn markets as rains fell across the Midwest to excessive heat concerns. December and March futures ended the week 9 cents lower while May futures closed 8 cents lower. The funds ended the week short 139,763 corn and 2,891 soybean contracts.

While the dome did materialize, bringing higher temperatures across the Midwest last week, temperatures did not reach the original forecasted highs. Favorable precipitation helped negate the impact of the high temperatures, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt. The main driving factor behind price movement, or the lack thereof, can be attributed to the ever-changing forecasts that come out multiple times per day. Current forecasts have heat moving out of the Midwest by late this week which should help late pollinating corn avoid a risk of yield loss.

The United States struck a deal with Japan last week that lowers tariffs on auto imports and spares Tokyo from punishing new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US bound investment and loans. Japan has been the second largest importer of US corn this year with 514 million bushels year to date. Agreeing to the deal may not result in additional corn exports, but it definitely helps secure current business.

In Louisiana, growers started harvesting corn over the weekend and may be fulfilling some gulf barge demand early next week. This should start to impact basis levels across the US in the coming weeks as new crops begin to hit the market, quenching some of the old crop demand.

Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Only 2 years (2014 & 2016) in the last 14 have had better conditions at this point. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 56% and 14%, respectively.

So far, we have been unable to fill the CBOT gaps made back on July 7^th. I still believe these gaps are in play and will be filled, it may take longer than expected if mother nature doesn’t give the traders some bullish weather in the coming week. Historically late August is when the CBOT bottoms out and we begin our trek higher. This year may be an anomaly as we may set lows in July. Anyone looking to cover new crop needs should consider locking in some prices now to take advantage of current levels. All CBOT prices for the 2025 crop are currently trading in the bottom 16^th percentile for the 5-year period. (only 16% of the time has the market been below current levels over the last five years) There is a lot more room to the upside and while we are trading a record size crop, I believe it will be smaller than current estimates in the end.

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