October 9, 2024
Good morning,
Corn and soybeans are unchanged to start the day.
The corn and bean futures have returned to their breakout points, so the next couple of days will be critical to direction moving forward. An unimpeded harvest will likely add hedge pressure for the nest few weeks.
The markets have been supported by the current dryness in South America and Chinese stimulus talks. It looks like the markets may need to find new bullish news as dryness appears to be exiting as moisture is on the way for Brazil. The Chinese stimulus has been a disappointment since they returned from holiday earlier this week which has resulted in the soybean market selloff. There has been a lot of talk and investment around the recent Chinese stimulus that occurred in the past couple of weeks. After coming back from their golden week, more stimulus was thought that could be announced, along with clarification for the exact terms of their currently promised stimulus.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 8, 2024
Good morning,
Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 15 to start the day.
Improved chances of rain in South America and harvest selling have the market down this morning.
Argentina saw good rains in the north over the past 24 hours and that action remains this week, and into the 6–10-day period. Brazilian rains remain heavy in the south over the next week, but drier northern areas will start to see better chances for the 6-10 & 11-15 day periods.
Corn harvest advanced from 21% to 30% complete this week, which is in line with 31% last year and the 27% five-year average pace. Soybean harvest rose from 26% to 47% done as of Sunday night, ahead of 37% last year and the 34% 5-year average.
As bean harvest wraps up, producers are turning their attention to corn. There is not an abundance of rain in the forecast, and corn harvest may mirror the fast-paced soybean harvest. The next couple of weeks, basis may hold at elevators that have a lot of space to fill, but once they feel comfortable that they will fill, basis may weaken substantially. The next 3 or 4 weeks, we could see basis possibly weaken as much or more than the futures market. Worst case, the basis and futures succumb at the same time due to harvest pressure.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 30, 2024
Good morning,
Dryness in Brazil continues to be a concern as planting remains behind pace and rainfall is forecasted to be behind pace for another 3 weeks. Unlike US farmers, Brazilian farmers want rain during planting season. Argentina is sitting in a similar situation bet despite the rain deficit, Argentina’s crop is 11% planted and only 2% behind the average.
The USDA quarterly stocks report is out this morning, and traders look for both soybean and corn stocks to end up higher than USDA’s September S&D update, indicating a neutral to bearish undertone. My guess is that this report will come in bullish with strong use in both commodities the last couple months.
Check back in after 11:00 for today’s numbers.
Quarterly Grain Stocks (Billion bushels)
| USDA September 2024 | Average Estimate | USDA September 2023 | |
| Corn | 1.760 | 1.853 | 1.360 |
| Soybeans | .342 | 354 | 264 |
| Wheat | 1.986 | 1.984 | 1.767 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 27, 2024
Good morning,
Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 2 to start this Friday.
It’s nice to see more upward momentum this morning, but traders most likely won’t move things much higher ahead of Mondays quarterly Stocks report.
Monday’s reports could easily help end this current rally. If the numbers are bullish as expected, the markets may dip slightly and then resume their sideways pattern.
Hurricane Helene made landfall last night as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. This was the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Big Bend coast of Florida. The size of the storm was immense, with the width of the wind field spanning nearly 600 miles. It caused historic flooding along Florida’s coast before moving into Georgia and the Carolinas overnight. Millions of homes across the Southeast are without power.
The remnants of Helene will move into the mid-South and southern portions of the Midwest this weekend, producing widespread rain with the potential for localized flash flooding.
Monday afternoons harvest progress should again show us ahead of the 5-year average as the Midwest weather has been favorable.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 19, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are weaker to start the day with corn down 3 and soybeans down 8.
Harvest is under way and both the corn and soybean crops are expected to be close to 20% harvested on Monday. There is some light rain around today but shouldn’t hinder any corn harvest. . Early yields, especially corn yields in the center of the belt, have been outstanding. However, traders still worry that the dry finish to the season may serve to limit the upside of yields. Dry conditions have sped up dry down this year and its very evident in soybean moisture that is testing as low as 8% in certain fields.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday said that some Argentine farmers had begun abandoning wheat fields due to dry weather in the north and west; conditions are better in eastern wheat areas. The country’s harvest generally begins in November. Corn planting was reported at 7.1% complete, with both crops planted on 6.3 million hectares (15.6 mln ac) this season.
Assuming we can hold above $4 today things should stay flat. December corn futures appear to be range bound between $4.00 and $4.15.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
