Good Morning,

The markets are softer to unchanged this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans up 2.
Last night’s planting progress showed 67% of the nation’s corn planted which compares to 51% last week and 56% on average. Of the major corn producing states only Missouri and Ohio came in below average with most other states significantly ahead of average. Wisconsin was reported at 59% complete compared to 33% last week and 39% for the five year average.
Soybean planting progress came in at 38% complete across the nation compared to 23% last week and 23% on the average. Wisconsin was 35% complete compared to 14% last week and 14% on average.
Traders will focus on today’s USDA report that will be released at 11am. This will give us an update on the old crop S&D numbers as well as the first official estimate of the new crop (2020) S&D tables. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

2019-20 Ending Stocks (billion bu.)
USDA May estimate Average Estimate April report
Corn 2.098 2.224 2.092
Soybeans .580 .488 .480
Wheat .978 .969 .970

2020-21 Ending Stocks (billion bu.)
USDA May Estimate Average Estimate April Report
Corn 3.318 3.389 NA
Soybeans .405 .430 NA
Wheat .909 .814 NA

As you can see the estimates for the 2020-21 corn ending stocks are HUGE and could potentially become bigger given the planting progress if we have average weather this summer. I talked to a farmer in North Central IL yesterday who said they are about 60% planted in his area and most of the corn and beans could be finished by the weekend given the forecasts. He said they have had plenty of moisture lately that has delayed planting. Despite the wet weather he said they really only need 2 good rains this summer to produce a bumper crop. (1 in early June and 1 in early July) He said it may be time to start looking at the county LDP rate to see how close they get to it!

Check back after 11am for today’s report numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher to start the week with corn up 3 and soybeans up 8. Cooler weekend weather and strong export demand is supporting the grains this am. This weekend’s weather was much cooler and some sub freezing temps purchased their way through the corn belt. Thankfully the newly emerged corn was likely too immature for the cold to do any real damage. The forecast looks warmer with near to above normal temps predicted over the next couple weeks.
Look for high numbers in this afternoons planting report as traders are expecting corn to be 65-70% planted with soybeans in the 50% range.
Optimism over demand from China is supporting soybean prices this morning, but there remains concerns about the tensions between the US and Beijing.

Take advantage of today’s bounce to make sales ahead of this afternoons planting progress report and tomorrows USDA report. (Stocks, world production)

I look for the markets to fade into the close ars traders prepare for tomorrows USDA report that will be released at 11am.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn trading 2 higher and soybeans trading 6 higher.
Part of the excitement yesterday centered around trade talks between the US and China overnight. Both sides are reporting that talks were productive. The conversation reportedly focused on implementation of the Phase 1 deal. In a statement from the USTR he said “both sides agreed that good progress is being made on creating the governmental infrastructure necessary to make the agreement a success.” Rumors were circling yesterday that the Chinese were looking to secure another couple hundred thousand tons of corn and three to four hundred thousand of beans.

What may hold markets back a little here today is the weather models backing off of their forecasts for record cold that would produce a frost threat to much of the Corn Belt. The models remain cold through the weekend and into Monday, but concern for any real crop damage has waned with the forecast a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A broad ridge/trough pattern will remain in place for several days before we make a shift to a more zonal flow by the middle of next week. This should produce more season temps with highs in the 60’s. 70’s, and even a few 80’s. Overall, the forecast looks favorable for planting and we expect seeding to accelerate with the extended models looking like they will have a nice mixture of warmth, sunshine and rain.

Argentina corn harvest was reported at 38.2% harvested yesterday which is 10% ahead of the 3 year average. Soybean harvest was reported at 78.2% complete compared to 68% for the 3 year average.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

All commodities are stronger this morning with corn up 4, soybeans up 7 and wheat up 6. The reason for the stronger markets to start the day are reports from Bloomberg that top Chinese and US trade negotiators will speak as soon as next week on progress in implementing the Phase 1 trade deal after President trump threatened to “terminate” the agreement if China wasn’t adhering to the terms.
The planned call will be the first time Vice Premier Liu and USTR Lighthizer have spoken officially about the agreement since it was signed in January. China promised to buy $250 billion worth of US goods and the pressure to catch up in their buying is mounting.
Weather forecasts for the next couple weeks is cooler, but mostly dry which should aid in US producers wrapping up their planting of the 2020 crop. This crop is a long way from being in the bin, but aside from some weather issue during pollination I don’t look for any crop issues to move this market higher.

Producers should be taking advantage of bumps in the market like we are seeing today to get old and new crop sales on the books. Ethanol stocks are still very high and plants are not coming back on line anytime soon. While margins have improved in the last two weeks, they are still deeply in the red. As this crop continues to get in the ground at a record pace and demand remains low, the markets are going to struggle to rally regardless of how much China says they are going to buy. Remember this is an election year and there will be a lot of things said that may not be followed thru on and trade deals could very well be one of them.
Producers can currently lock in $3 old and $3 new crop corn. While these numbers may not seem good, they are a lot better than $2.50-$2.70 that we have seen and are expecting for fall.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are softer this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans and wheat down 5. Trading interest in corn beans and wheat is down to about zero as China is on a Labor Holiday.
President Trump is pushing to reopen the country, and wants people to go back to work and live their everyday lives. “Will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” Trump said. “But we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon.” Know that President of the United States would be at as much risk as anyone to the disease, and his age profile doesn’t help either.
A bill was introduced in the House Tuesday that would boost the funding to the CCC for 68 billion dollars.
The weather forecast for the next 15 days is on the cool side, but will also be mostly dry. These doesn’t look to be any major planting issues, with weather much better than a year ago.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com