Good Morning,

Markets are quiet overnight and this morning as traders take time away from the markets to celebrate the holidays. The CBOT closes at 12:05 today and will re-open at 8:30 am on Thursday morning.

Merry Christmas to you and your families from all of us at Didion!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and beans slightly higher this morning as they trade 2 and 4 higher respectively.

A Chinese consulting company that works with the Government, says that China will have no problem meeting the 40 billion dollars in US goods. They estimate that China will begin purchasing in February and secure 45 mmts of beans, 8 mmts of corn, 5 mmts of wheat and 8 mmts of DDG’s. Livestock would be limited to 1 mmts of US pork and poultry. There is no mention of ethanol, which makes me think this list is far from complete or correct. It’s going to take a mix of many products to get to the 40 billion!
Rains have started to develop in Southern Argentina and will continue into the weekend. Totals should be from .5 to 2.5 inches. A couple system are set to move through in the next couple days. Brazilian will see the same normal weather pattern of rains of 1-3 inches every few days.

Funds are short 95,000 corn and 91,000 bean contracts after yesterday’s trade. I expect their short bean position to be erased in the coming weeks especially if China looks to buy 45mmt of beans. Corn could see some strength on bean follow thru, but I don’t expect much before the January WASDE.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans up 8. Fund managers are starting to reduce their short position as they begin to get a better understanding of the Phase 1 trade deal and the potential for a purchase of $40 Billion of US Ag products.
Both sides are still working on the language of the deal thoughts are that it could get signed in early 2020. Keep in mind this is the fifth time during the US/China trade war that a deal has been prematurely declared. Expect more bumps along the road before the deal is done and take advantage of the higher trade when presented because it may not last long.
A high pressure ridge is in place over Northern Brazil and Southern Argentina that will keep the forecast dry over much of the next 10 days. The extended outlook shows improved chances for remain across the dry areas. Extreme heat is lacking and the current pattern is not threatening to the crop.
Over the next couple weeks the markets could be very erratic with some shortened trading sessions and with traders exit early for the holidays. This could work for or against producers. My advice would be to take advantage of any spikes we see between now and the end of the year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 4 and beans up 11. The catalyst has been media reports suggesting that President Trump has signed off on a Phase 1 trade deal. While this is great news, Beijing has not said that the two sides have reached an agreement yet.
The deal presented to the President included a promise to buy more US agricultural goods. Officials also discussed possible reductions of existing duties on Chinese products. Terms of the deal would halt duties on $156 billion in Chinese goods and is thought to roll them back on another $360 billion goods by some 50%. The legal text has not been finalized and the White House has not commented, but if these rumors are true we can expect a reduction on the imposed Chinese tariffs and Beijing to start buying $50 billion of US AG products annually beginning in 2020.
While this is great news, producers need to keep in mind that this has not been signed and even if it does, it is just phase 1 and is not going to send the markets thru the ceiling. This is merely a small step in the right direction and there are a lot of details to be worked out.
This is the time of year when producers need to keep three things in mind:
1. Don’t get complacent – Just because harvest is compete doesn’t mean that your work is done. Now is the time to focus on the tough part of farming…. Marketing your crop! You know what you have from this year’s harvest so make plans to market it. You should also be making plans and offers to market next year’s crop. Most of you are already buying your seed for next year so you should also be marketing that crop.
2. Be Disciplined – Talk to your grain buyer, lender, advisor and make plans for how you are going to market this year and next year’s crop. Get firm offers in with your buyers and stick to these firm offers.
3. Diversify and be flexible – Put offers in and make sales for multiple years. 2019/20 crop, 2020/21 crop. Use different marketing tools (basis, HTA, cash, accumulators) to spread out your risk.
You typically get 1 or 2 opportunities to market your crop at decent prices and the only way to successfully hit them is to be disciplined and have offers in place to sell when they happen.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

News is limited overnight, but meetings are taking place in Washington today. A decision regarding new tariffs will start being made today as President Trump meets with his trade team. Whether additional tariffs are added or held off, or some tariffs pulled back will indicate how close the US Government is to a phase one deal with China. You can expect leaks and erratic trade in equities and commodities into Friday’s close.

US export sales were 502,700 mts of wheat, 873,500 mts of corn up 60% from last week and 28% from the prior 4. Bean sales were 1,050,100 mts up 54% from last week and down 17% from the 4 week average, with China taking the bulk of the sales. Argentina corn was sold into Brazil yesterday, which shows Brazil has exhausted supplies, yet some corn still remains in Argentina at cheap CIF than the US.

Look for choppy trade to continue into Friday with anticipation of what may or may not be done on the trade front.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com