Good Morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 1 to start the month.

President Trump is reinstating tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil, criticizing the cheapening of their currencies. Brazil steel accounts 3.5% of US steel consumed. The tariff would be set at 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. He also called for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy.

The Argentine weather forecast remains dry for the next 10+ days due to a high pressure ridge that has set up. Temps have been normal, this is their first real shortfall in rain this season. Weather for Brazil looks normal as ever, with rain continual over the next 10 days. Totals from the model below show 2-5 inches of accumulation coming.

Corn harvest is expected to show 90% harvest tonight, with the Northern harvest lasting well into December or spring for some areas farther north.

Producers should be talking to their buyers and bankers to get a plan in place to take advantage of the historically tight basis levels posted now thru spring. The market is telling us to sell the crop now. If you are of the opinion that the CBOT is going to rally sometime in the next 9 months look to re-own your grain on paper. March 2020 calls are cheap insurance that will keep you in the game in the event of a CBOT rally. This will also allow you to move your grain in the short term and avoid dealing with quality issues this year’s crop has.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower today with corn and soybeans both trading 1 lower. The markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. The markets will have a shortened trading session on Friday when they will close at 12:05pm.
US weather will continue to make it difficult for northern growers to complete harvest fortunately most of our area should only see rain with very limited snowfall. Temperatures dropping next week should firm things up and allow combines to head back to the fields early next week. Weather in South America continues to improve which will support higher production from our neighbors/competitors to the south!
Historically today and Friday are positive days in the markets. Combined with the short positions that traders are carrying at month end we could see some short covering today or Friday.
Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday due to the holiday.
Strong basis levels continue to keep corn moving while the CBOT fails to show any strength. Producers should be talking to their buyers and bankers to get a plan in place to take advantage of these tight basis levels. The market is telling us to sell the crop now. If you are of the opinion that the CBOT is going to rally sometime in the next 9 months look to re-own your grain on paper. March 2020 calls are cheap insurance that will keep you in the game in the event of a CBOT rally. This will also allow you to move your grain in the short term and avoid dealing with quality issues this year’s crop has.

Have a Safe Day and Happy Thanksgiving!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher with corn up 1, beans up 2 and wheat up 7 cents to kick off the Holiday shortened week. The CBOT will be closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving.
Typically this is a one of the most bullish weeks of the year and with heavy snows (4″ to 20″) on the way for the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, we could still have over 1.25B bu. of corn still sitting in the fields when the system moves through later this week.
China has said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property (IP) rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the United States. Beijing will also look into lowering the thresholds for criminal punishments for those who steal IP, according to guidelines issued by the government on Sunday. China said it is aiming to reduce frequent IP violations by 2022. This has been one of the White House’s main sticking points during the negotiation process and Asian and World stock markets view the news as bullish.
While the pros wait for some definitive news on some sort of potential resolution to the trade war, the overall favorable weather forecast for South America has help dampen the bulls enthusiasm here in November.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher this am in corn and down in soybeans. Corn is currently up 2 and soybeans are down 1.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that China has invited US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to Beijing for some high level negotiations next week ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Chinese and American trade negotiators continue to wrestle with exactly which trade tariffs will be removed as part of a “phase one” deal between China and the United States and under what conditions. Among other things, the White House continues to seek clear commitments on US Ag purchases before they travel. It is worth noting that this is the first time that the Chinese have asked for such an urgent meeting. It would appear as though the President Trump is correct when he says “I can tell you this: China would much rather make a trade deal than I would.”
Weather models are in good agreement for South America too in calling for favorable conditions that will benefit crops. Showers and Storms will dominate that forecast with 10-day totals expected to range between 2″ to 4″. Following the dry spring, the predicted rains will be a welcome sight to farmers there. Northern Brazil is expected to see showers daily and Argentina will see normal rainfall that will aid germination. Overall the pattern looks to be ideal for corn and bean crops with no threat from lasting heat with highs in the 80’s and 90’s.

Locally we are in the heat of harvest with most producers between 50-75% complete and now starting to look for space for a crop that is bigger than most had expected. If you are in this category, make sure you are talking to your grain buyer to find the best options available to move your grain and lock in a profit. Give us a call to discuss if you are looking for alternative choices to paying storage.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets look to stage a Turnaround Tuesday after reports out yesterday morning on CNBC that President Trump was not prepared to rollback US tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, it has been reported that the two sides continue to butt heads over the size of US Ag purchases. The word that we are getting is that President had not made a final decision on the tariffs; however, the situation remains fluid with negotiations on a Phase 1 deal occurring on a daily basis.
Prices on the board continue to look cheap and should help to entice some activity in the export markets. For the second consecutive day we have a sale of corn to Unknown Destination reported on the daily system and beans out of the Gulf are the cheapest in the World. With US grain and soy now much more competitively priced we have begun to see business pick up. Yesterday we saw a sale for 132 TMT of corn to Unknown and then again today we got another for 191 TMT of corn to Unknown Destinations.
Now that the US harvest is nearly complete, the pro’s focus will now shift to South American weather and at least for now the forecast looks pretty favorable over the next couple of weeks. The major models remain in good agreement in calling for an active wet weather pattern settling in for the balance of November.
The December corn board is currently trading 27 cents below this same date last year. Cash prices this fall have been much better than last fall and its all due to basis levels across the Midwest. This is one big reason that I believe producers should be locking in basis contracts for fall and spring/summer delivery. Any move higher in the CBOT is going to result in weaker basis levels.

Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 4 to start the day.

Have a Safe Day

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com