Good Morning,

Prices are mixed with corn and beans trading higher and wheat down a couple. Soybeans are getting a boost from a report on Bloomberg that USDA Secretary Perdue indicated that the US is unlikely to impose new tariffs on China come December 15th. Outside markets are quiet with the US House expected to go ahead with approval of the USMCA trade agreement. The USDA’s December crop report is due out at 11 am CST.

Typically the December report is one of the least exciting of the year and I expect them to leave any major adjustments to US production for the January report. There may be some tinkering with the corn exports, but really there shouldn’t be any real big surprises.

Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.859 billion bushel for December compared to 1.910 in November. Soybean stocks are estimated at 472 million bushel compared to 475 million in November.

While soybeans finished off of their highs yesterday, it was a good start to the week as the soybeans continue to try and erase the loses of November here in December. With harvest coming so late for many this year it was as if we made our harvest lows during Thanksgiving. Pulling the tariffs is a good thing, but many traders remain wary after having been burned so many times.

Corn harvest was reported at 92% complete nationwide vs 89% last week and 100% historically. Wisconsin came in at 74% complete compared to 66% last week and 95% historically.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Good morning, beans traded higher overnight, with corn and wheat slightly lower. US stocks were down slightly and crude oil is down 60. Over 60,000 contracts of beans traded last night, expecting purchases from China this week ahead of the December 15th tariff deadline. China has waived tariffs for soybeans and pork for now. New tariffs on 156 Billion dollars worth of Chinese goods could be imposed this week. Pulling the tariffs is a good thing, but as many times as traders have been burned so many times, there are still a lot of non-believers.

Corn harvest is expected to be somewhere close to 92% complete this afternoon. Weather looks better this week, and harvest will be mostly complete by next Monday.

Argentina is still on the dry side early in this growing season. Some rain may start to develop in the Northern Corn area, but the South looks dry for the next 10 days. Brazilian weather looks the same with regular rains coming weekly. Rainfall totals in Brazil with range between 1-5 inches. Temps will be very normal, in the 80’s to lower 90’s.

Tomorrows USDA S&D report isn’t expected to provide any big changes as most are expecting the January 10th Production and S&D report to be the next potential market mover.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 1 to start the month.

President Trump is reinstating tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil, criticizing the cheapening of their currencies. Brazil steel accounts 3.5% of US steel consumed. The tariff would be set at 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. He also called for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy.

The Argentine weather forecast remains dry for the next 10+ days due to a high pressure ridge that has set up. Temps have been normal, this is their first real shortfall in rain this season. Weather for Brazil looks normal as ever, with rain continual over the next 10 days. Totals from the model below show 2-5 inches of accumulation coming.

Corn harvest is expected to show 90% harvest tonight, with the Northern harvest lasting well into December or spring for some areas farther north.

Producers should be talking to their buyers and bankers to get a plan in place to take advantage of the historically tight basis levels posted now thru spring. The market is telling us to sell the crop now. If you are of the opinion that the CBOT is going to rally sometime in the next 9 months look to re-own your grain on paper. March 2020 calls are cheap insurance that will keep you in the game in the event of a CBOT rally. This will also allow you to move your grain in the short term and avoid dealing with quality issues this year’s crop has.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower today with corn and soybeans both trading 1 lower. The markets will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. The markets will have a shortened trading session on Friday when they will close at 12:05pm.
US weather will continue to make it difficult for northern growers to complete harvest fortunately most of our area should only see rain with very limited snowfall. Temperatures dropping next week should firm things up and allow combines to head back to the fields early next week. Weather in South America continues to improve which will support higher production from our neighbors/competitors to the south!
Historically today and Friday are positive days in the markets. Combined with the short positions that traders are carrying at month end we could see some short covering today or Friday.
Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday due to the holiday.
Strong basis levels continue to keep corn moving while the CBOT fails to show any strength. Producers should be talking to their buyers and bankers to get a plan in place to take advantage of these tight basis levels. The market is telling us to sell the crop now. If you are of the opinion that the CBOT is going to rally sometime in the next 9 months look to re-own your grain on paper. March 2020 calls are cheap insurance that will keep you in the game in the event of a CBOT rally. This will also allow you to move your grain in the short term and avoid dealing with quality issues this year’s crop has.

Have a Safe Day and Happy Thanksgiving!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher with corn up 1, beans up 2 and wheat up 7 cents to kick off the Holiday shortened week. The CBOT will be closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving.
Typically this is a one of the most bullish weeks of the year and with heavy snows (4″ to 20″) on the way for the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, we could still have over 1.25B bu. of corn still sitting in the fields when the system moves through later this week.
China has said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property (IP) rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the United States. Beijing will also look into lowering the thresholds for criminal punishments for those who steal IP, according to guidelines issued by the government on Sunday. China said it is aiming to reduce frequent IP violations by 2022. This has been one of the White House’s main sticking points during the negotiation process and Asian and World stock markets view the news as bullish.
While the pros wait for some definitive news on some sort of potential resolution to the trade war, the overall favorable weather forecast for South America has help dampen the bulls enthusiasm here in November.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com