Good Morning,

The corn market it trading 2 lower and soybeans are 3 lower this morning as trade continues to position ahead of Fridays report. Funds are currently short 102,000 corn and long 74,000 soybean contracts.
Last nights crop progress report showed US corn harvest 52% complete compared to 41% last week and 75% on the five year average. Wisconsin came in at 21% complete compared to 51% on average. Soybean harvest was reported at 75% complete compared to 87% for the five year average. Wisconsin came in at 62% complete compared to 85% for the five year average. Favorable weather this week across the US should bump both of these numbers significantly by next Monday.

Brazilian soybean growers have planted 46% of the estimated area in the 2019/2020 crop, below the level of 60% seen last year. Despite the slower pace of planting compared to 2018, soybean planting is above the five year average of 43%. Brazil will harvest an estimated record 121 million tons of soybeans this year after increasing planted acres by 1.3% to 90 million acres.

Positive news this morning is that trade talks are reaching the critical final stages of a “Phase 1” deal, but both sides are doing some last minute haggling to benefit their side. While these talks and negotiations are not new, the progress definitely is. My personal opinion is that the Chinese hold more power in these negotiations at this point that President Trump. I think they can wait him out thru the next US Presidential election before they have to give in. If he wins the next election then they come back to the drawing board. If he loses (which would most likely happen without him reaching a deal), then they get someone new to deal with.

If you are going to be short on space for fall bushels give us a call to find out what great alternatives we have to paying storage.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Lower in corn and higher in soybeans to start the week. Corn is currently down 3 and soybeans are up 5. Harvest pressure is weighing on the corn markets as producers made decent progress over the weekend. Progress is expected to reach 55% complete over eth weekend as there were no major weather issues across the Midwest to slow down the farmers. The five year average for this date is 74%.
Fridays WASDE report will be the focus of most traders this week as they debate where the USDA will put yield and harvested acres. This will be the agencies last report and last chance at an adjustment until the final report in January. One private analyst on Friday estimated the corn production at 13.911 billion bushels, up from their previous estimate of 13.887. They also increased their yield to 170.0 bpa, up from 169.3 last month.
Support in the bean market is coming on the heels of Bloomberg reporting that President Xi of China is going to schedule a visit to Washington DC to meet personally with President Trump in the next couple weeks. The thinking is that the purpose of this visit is to sign the Phase 1 agreement.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly firmer to end the week with corn up 1 and soybeans up 4 to start the day. Yesterday’s export sales report showed corn in the middle of the range of expectations but expectations are low with the trend of lower weekly volumes. US corn continues to lag South American offers in the November thru January time slot.
Weather forecasts remain colder and wetter for the first half of November with the second half showing normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation.
One week from today the USDA will issue its last Crop Production and Supply and Demand report for the year. Traders and producers are hoping for a drop in yield and harvested acres in this report to support and possibly give the market a little life. It is interesting to note that in 21 of the last 28 November WASDE reports, the trend in yield has been to follow the October report. (Exp – If the October report had an increase in yield, the November report would also have an increase) Based on early reports from the fields this year I would not be surprised to see an increase in yield next Friday. We continue to receive reports locally and across the Midwest that yields are much better than expected.
I would advise producers to take advantage of the historically tight basis levels we are seeing across the Midwest to get some basis sales made for November thru July. Lock in the basis levels and price it out when the CBOT breaks out of the current sideways trend.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 31, 2019

Happy Halloween, Merry Christmas,

Not sure what we should call today with the snow flying like its December 30th. The markets are weaker this am with corn down 5 and soybeans down 4. A lot of the pressure is coming from news that Chile has cancelled the APEC meeting that was supposed to take place in November. This is the meeting where Chinese president Xi and US President Trump were to sign a phase 1 agreement. Rumors this morning are that Chinese sources are suggesting a long term agreement with the US is doubtful unless Trump rolls back tariffs. The White House says that they still want to sign the agreement in November but an alternative meeting sight or date for the signing is still unknown.
Producers that have been in the fields and have grain dried in your bins should take advantage of these “non-harvest” days to move corn to town on any fall contracts you may have. This will keep you from battling harvest lines in the coming weeks when everyone is in the field and trying to move grain to town.

While it may seem bad right now, here is a reminder that it can always be worse! (North Dakota 3 weeks ago.)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

President Trump suggested on late Monday that enough progress had been made in negotiations with the Chinese that he intended on signing Phase one of the trade deal in November. This coincides with an article out of the South China Morning Post this AM reporting that Chinese President Xi and President Trump are tentatively expected to meet on November 17 with the aim of signing an interim trade deal. If everything goes smoothly, the two leaders are expected to come face-to-face immediately after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Santiago, Chile.
China still desires the cancellation of some of the existing and planned tariffs in exchange for the large purchases of US Ag products. Export demand remains lackluster and it is assumed that the Chinese will want to secure the good based on the market conditions. This should help support spot-market prices below $9 in beans and $3.80 in corn.
That has much as much to do with South America, at this point, as anything. Ag products are squarely in the Argentine President’s cross hairs and all the uncertainty surrounding his new plan. News that Argentina was looking at raising export taxes on soybeans to 25% and corn to 7% has led to all FOB offers beyond November/December being pulled. This is huge for us given how cheap Argentine grain has been with wheat the cheapest in the world by about $10/MT and corn running about 25 cents over the board versus 58 cents over out of the Gulf.
Last nights corn harvest progress report showed the US increase by 11% from the previous week and now sits at 41% complete compared to 61% on average. A huge increase in IL to 54% was the big surprise for the week. WI is reported at 13% complete.

Snowfall over the last 24 hours should slow harvest progress in some areas of the Midwest, especially in soybeans. This will lead to an increase in corn harvest as producers that have been working to finish up soybeans will now switch to corn for the remainder of the week while beans try to dry out.

Don’t forget to join us for lunch today as Compeer Financial will be serving bag lunches from 11:00am – 1:30pm.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844