Good Morning,

After a strong Monday and quiet markets overnight the markets have opened lower today as rain has been added next week for the dry southern areas and no indications of a frost threat well into October.
Sources say that President Trump is tentatively backing a plan to increase biofuel blending.
China appears willing to make good on their promises to secure more US Ag products with another gesture of goodwill again this morning. This morning they purchased another 260 MT of soybeans for the 2019/20 marketing year. (Let’s not get too excited, they can cancel just as quick)
Last night’s crop ratings had corn harvest at 4% complete which is slightly behind the 5 year average of 7%.
Basis was starting to strengthen last week across the Midwest with lower CBOT prices. But Friday and Mondays rally in the CBOT has resulted in numbers slipping back down. This is a sign that producers and commercial elevators were heavy sellers on the short rally and end users are filling their pre harvest needs.
Producers should take advantage of any CBOT or basis bounce for the old crop or any fall bushels that they have left to move. Harvest has hit central IL which is going to put pressure on basis regardless of the crop size as stocks increase. I would advise producers with adequate storage for their fall corn to have 50 % of your crop sold and sit tight on the remaining portion until late winter/early spring.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

USDA report out today at 11am will dominate the markets today with traders positioning ahead of the release and reacting after. There will be a lot of data released today (see below) but the main focus pre report seems to be focusing on what the USDA will use for corn yield. Private estimates are divided greatly with a range of 163-171.5 bpa which means we have room for a surprise in either direction. The USDA used 169.5 bpa in their August report.
President Trump announced he will delay the 5% tariff increase on some of China’s goods by two weeks, now to be implemented October 15th, in a sign of good will ahead of the trade talks next month.
If you have old crop corn to move or are looking to price more new crop bushels, give us a call to hear some of the unique options that we are offering.

2019/20 Production (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. Avg. Est. USDA Aug.
Corn Yield 168.2 167.2 169.5
Corn Production 13.799 13.672 13.901
Bean Yield 47.9 47.2 48.5
Bean Production 3.633 3.577 3.68

2018/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. Ave. Est. USDA Aug.
Corn 2.445 2.401 2.360
Soybeans 1.005 1.054 1.070

2019/20 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. Ave. Est. USDA Aug.
Corn 2.190 2.002 2.181
Soybeans .640 .660 .7550

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn finally stopped the free fall yesterday as it jumped up to challenge the 10DMA and closed up 7 cents for December futures. Some of the strength today could be attributed to the unexpected 3% drop in crop ratings last night, and we were also probably looking at some short covering by managed money ahead of Thursdays report.
Ethanol discussions have hit a roadblock with the biofuel lobby telling the administration it will accept no compromise and will only be satisfied if the EPA reallocates the full measure of the SREs(small refinery exemptions) to other refiners to make up for the loss in RIN (renewable identification number) values it experienced this year.
After yesterday’s buying, the funds are now short 151,000 corn contracts with momentum still heavily to the short side.
Estimates for Thursdays report are expecting a reduction of 2 bpa for corn yield to 167.2 and total production to drop to 13.672 billion bu. down from 13.901 in August. 2018-19 corn stocks are estimated at 2.401 billion bu which is up from the August report by 41 million. Estimates for the 2019-20 corn stocks are 2.002 billion bu. down 179 million bushel.

Overnight markets are lower as traders continue to position ahead of tomorrows report.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weakness late last week and overnight in the corn market as weather forecasts for the month of September continue to show above normal temperatures for most of the Midwest. These warmer temperatures are easing traders fears of the crop not finishing. As a result traders have now taken the market to new contract lows. As of Fridays close, the funds are short 155,000 contracts. They have been sellers of corn in 9 of the last 10 trading sessions.
The September USDA S&D report will be released Thursday at 11am. The trade is looking for corn production of 13.672 billion bushels, down from last month at 13.901. Soybean production is expected to come in at 13.672, down from last month at 13.680. Old crop corn stocks are expected to rise by 40 million bushels, and bean stocks are supposed to decline by 15 million.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

It looks like the markets are going to finish the week the way started it on a downward trend. Corn is currently down 2. Here are some market movers this week and in the coming weeks:

• China and the US plan to hold talks in October which will be the 13th time, lets hope its lucky #13.

• Ethanol production for the week averaged 1.013 million barrels per day which is down 2.41% vs last week and down 6.81% from a year ago. This was the lowest production week since early April with stocks sitting at 23.8 million barrels as gasoline demand starts its seasonal decline.

• Early yields from the south are all over the board, but most are higher than early expectations.

• US weather forecasts remain favorable with no season ending freeze in sight.

Not a lot of upside at the moment as traders continue to trade the lack of demand for US corn and soybeans. Unless something dramatic happens on the demand side of the equation, we are guaranteed to end up with a carryout north of 2 billion bushels. 2 billion bushel carryout equals prices in the $3 – $3.50. Many producers are still sitting on old crop corn that they want/need to move before harvest and the market is not offering many opportunities. If you are one of these producers, give us a call to see what options we have to add to your bottom line in these tough times.

Have a safe weekend.

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com