Good Morning,

The Chinese trade delegation canceled their US farm tour stops on Friday causing the markets to end last week on a down note. Reasons for the cancelation were not clear, but it is rumored that the farms were actually the ones cancelling the visits. The Chinese were scheduled to visit hog farms in Montana and Nebraska. The farmers are restricting visits due to the swine flu that has devastated the industry.
Markets are stronger this morning after some heavy rains soaked fields from Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin over the weekend.
Next Monday 9/30/19 the USDA will release the September 1st quarterly grain stocks report. Expectations are for this number to be well north of 2.0 billion as exports and domestic demand have been slow.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Even markets to open the day with corn unchanged and beans up 2. Forecasts for the next week locally look favorable with temps in the 70’s thru next week. The first day with sub 40’s isn’t until 10/2 and that is forecasted to be 36.
The latest ethanol production report had production down 20,000 bpd to 1,003,000 bpd. This is the lowest level since April. Reports yesterday that Siouxland Ethanol (90 million gallon plant) in Sioux City IA is shutting down is just another one to the growing list of plants now offline with negative margins. President Trump is meeting with senators from refining states to discuss the RFS as the President is under pressure from cornbelt senators to help the farm community.
Export reports this morning for last week came in above estimates but still significantly behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections. This common theme will continue with a stronger US dollar and increased world supply.

Producers should take advantage of any CBOT or basis bounce for the old crop or any fall bushels that they have left to move. Harvest has hit central IL which is going to put pressure on basis regardless of the crop size as stocks increase. I would advise producers with adequate storage for their fall corn to have 50 % of your crop sold and sit tight on the remaining portion until late winter/early spring.
Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

After a strong Monday and quiet markets overnight the markets have opened lower today as rain has been added next week for the dry southern areas and no indications of a frost threat well into October.
Sources say that President Trump is tentatively backing a plan to increase biofuel blending.
China appears willing to make good on their promises to secure more US Ag products with another gesture of goodwill again this morning. This morning they purchased another 260 MT of soybeans for the 2019/20 marketing year. (Let’s not get too excited, they can cancel just as quick)
Last night’s crop ratings had corn harvest at 4% complete which is slightly behind the 5 year average of 7%.
Basis was starting to strengthen last week across the Midwest with lower CBOT prices. But Friday and Mondays rally in the CBOT has resulted in numbers slipping back down. This is a sign that producers and commercial elevators were heavy sellers on the short rally and end users are filling their pre harvest needs.
Producers should take advantage of any CBOT or basis bounce for the old crop or any fall bushels that they have left to move. Harvest has hit central IL which is going to put pressure on basis regardless of the crop size as stocks increase. I would advise producers with adequate storage for their fall corn to have 50 % of your crop sold and sit tight on the remaining portion until late winter/early spring.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

USDA report out today at 11am will dominate the markets today with traders positioning ahead of the release and reacting after. There will be a lot of data released today (see below) but the main focus pre report seems to be focusing on what the USDA will use for corn yield. Private estimates are divided greatly with a range of 163-171.5 bpa which means we have room for a surprise in either direction. The USDA used 169.5 bpa in their August report.
President Trump announced he will delay the 5% tariff increase on some of China’s goods by two weeks, now to be implemented October 15th, in a sign of good will ahead of the trade talks next month.
If you have old crop corn to move or are looking to price more new crop bushels, give us a call to hear some of the unique options that we are offering.

2019/20 Production (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. Avg. Est. USDA Aug.
Corn Yield 168.2 167.2 169.5
Corn Production 13.799 13.672 13.901
Bean Yield 47.9 47.2 48.5
Bean Production 3.633 3.577 3.68

2018/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. Ave. Est. USDA Aug.
Corn 2.445 2.401 2.360
Soybeans 1.005 1.054 1.070

2019/20 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. Ave. Est. USDA Aug.
Corn 2.190 2.002 2.181
Soybeans .640 .660 .7550

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn finally stopped the free fall yesterday as it jumped up to challenge the 10DMA and closed up 7 cents for December futures. Some of the strength today could be attributed to the unexpected 3% drop in crop ratings last night, and we were also probably looking at some short covering by managed money ahead of Thursdays report.
Ethanol discussions have hit a roadblock with the biofuel lobby telling the administration it will accept no compromise and will only be satisfied if the EPA reallocates the full measure of the SREs(small refinery exemptions) to other refiners to make up for the loss in RIN (renewable identification number) values it experienced this year.
After yesterday’s buying, the funds are now short 151,000 corn contracts with momentum still heavily to the short side.
Estimates for Thursdays report are expecting a reduction of 2 bpa for corn yield to 167.2 and total production to drop to 13.672 billion bu. down from 13.901 in August. 2018-19 corn stocks are estimated at 2.401 billion bu which is up from the August report by 41 million. Estimates for the 2019-20 corn stocks are 2.002 billion bu. down 179 million bushel.

Overnight markets are lower as traders continue to position ahead of tomorrows report.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com