Good morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 12 to start the day.

Heavier rains are forecast in Mato Grosso next week, light amounts fell this week.  Southern Brazil continues to see heavy rains which will extend into next week.  Temperatures have been pretty warm this week with a few hot spots on the heat maps.

USDA December report will be released at 11am today. Estimates are listed below.

USDA 2022/23 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

As for what happens today on the USDA report, probably not a lot.  Exports have been good, but it’s the first quarter, so maybe no adjustments are needed today.  We may see some adjustments to Brazil’s yields, but it’s early in the season so that could be delayed.  There are also not a lot of changes made to US carryout on this report, most years it just stays the same. The January 12^th report is where we typically get the market to move. This year that January report could result in lower markets if they increase production like I am expecting.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are unchanged this morning and wheat is up 9.

An improved weather forecast for South America has been pressuring bean prices (old and new). Futures are at their lowest value in over a month. Corn prices appear to be stabilizing after setting new lows last week. The upside in corn looks to be very limited given the size of this year’s crop and the amount of unpriced corn still on farm coupled with a lack of demand so far.

Brazilian farmers have seeded 82% of the soybean crop down about 10% from the ten-year average.  The first crop corn is 65% planted versus 79% on the 10-year average.  The forecast continues to show heavier rains developing in the long-range timeline which will incentivize planting.

StoneX Brazil on Friday cut their 2023/24 soybean production estimate from 165.0 million metric ton (MMT) to 161.9 MMT, still above 157.7 MMT last season. First-crop corn production fell from 26.8 to 26.5 MMT this month, down from 28.6 MMT last year, with second-crop output seen at 97.3 MMT, down from 99.0 MMT last month and 108.4 MMT LY. Total corn production came in at 126.0 MMT this season, down from 139.2 MMT in 2022/23

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are up 5 to start the day.

Monday was another bad day for the grains as traders added to their short positions. The Funds have pushed the position past 200,000 shorts.  I think the low for now will come right around 1st notice day(Thursday).  In good markets, prices tend to put the low in ahead of harvest, in bad markets they tend to liquidate into First Notice Day.  In really bad markets, you get a bump in prices after the roll, and then liquidate again as the next contract is ready to move off the board into Delivery.  (This would be February, against the March contract).  If this trend follows, producers should look to market grain in December and January for the next several months as we may see new lows posted in February and March. The funds are currently estimated to be short 220,000 corn contracts which is nearing the short position of 250,000 contracts that I predicted a couple weeks ago.

Producers are advised to get firm offers in for sales they intend to make in the next 9 months and for 2024 new crop sales. We have a lot of time, but the bounces may be few and far between. Give us a call to help you select the target that is best for you.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

The corn market is picking up where it left off on Friday with the markets down 6 to start the day.

Weekend rainfall in Brazil ranged from 1-4.5 inches in the South and up to 2 inches in the North. The current forecast looks pretty wet in both the short term and long-range forecasts. This will continue to be the market mover as we progress thru South Americas planting and early growth stages.

Private analysts Safras & Mercado on Friday estimated 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production at 161.4 MMT, down from 163.25 MMT previously: that’s despite planted acreage rising from 44.68 to 45.62 million hectares (110.4 to 112.7 million acres).

Private analysts AgRural estimated Brazilian soybean planting at 74% complete as of Thursday, up from 68% last week but still behind 87% last year and the slowest pace since 2015/16. Center-south corn planting hit 83% complete this week, up from 80% last week but behind 88% a year ago.

Its going to take a change in forecasts in South America to put any kind of support in this market. As traders look at a large US crop and record acres in South America the world supply is not going to demand higher prices currently. Producers should be actively selling on any pop in the market for nearby through mid-summer.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 2 and soybeans are down 10 to start the day.

Soybeans are leading the market lower this morning as rains look to develop in the 10-15 day forecast for Brazil and Argentina. If this forecast holds up, it may start toe change the story for soybeans which recently have been corns only hope of moving higher.

President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met yesterday and agreed to open a presidential hotline, resume military-to-military communications and work to curb fentanyl production. There was nothing reported from their meeting that related to the ag markets which is not promising.

The Commitment of Traders report continues to show the managed money with its shortest position in the past 3 years. With a short position of 176k contracts, the market won’t feel heavy on shorts until they get to the 250+ contract level. S. American weather may still have the power to cause the shorts to cover, time will tell. Look for the markets to continue the range bound trade for the next couple months with South American weather being the only real mover.

My advice to producers it to have offers in place with your elevators or end users to market corn on any bounces in the market. $5 cash may be the high mark for any sales this marketing year and may only be attainable in the spring and summer months. Sales that you need to make between now and March should be targeted in the $4.75-5.00 range. Soybeans have more opportunity to move higher with smaller stocks and higher demand, so that is the commodity I would store for now.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com