Good Morning,

Softer markets prior to the release of today’s USDA Crop Production and S&D report. Corn is currently down 1 and soybeans are down 4. The report will be released at 11am today. Estimates listed below and will be updated with today’s numbers after they are released. The primary focus of today’s report appears to be on yield with many believing the 178 bpa mark is critical to the balance sheet. The range of estimates is 175-180 bpa.
The soybean market has continued to drift lower and is currently trading at new contract lows for SX at $8.24. The USDA average yield guess for today is 52.2 bpa, above last month’s yield of 51.6 bpa. The range of estimates is 50.9 to 53.8.
Yesterday’s crop conditions report showed US corn conditions increase 1% to 68% G/E. They put harvest at 5% completed, 86% dented and 35% mature. Wisconsin was 70% dented compared to 55% on average and 21% mature compared to 10% on average.
The US/China trade war doesn’t seem to be close to resolution. The US threatens more tariffs, China is not accepting license applications from US companies, confirming fears that US company operations in China and access to its markets may be disrupted. China revised its 2018/19 soybean imports forecast to 83.65 mmt, down 10.2 mmt from last month’s forecast.

USDA 2018/19 US Production (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Corn Yield 181.3 177.8 178.4
Corn Production 14.827 14.529 14.586
Soybean Yield 52.8 52.2 51.6
Soybean Production 4.693 4.649 4.586

USDA 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Wheat .935 .941 .935
Corn 1.774 1.639 1.684
Soybeans .845 .830 .785

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn has opened the week down 2 while soybeans are up 5. Most of the focus will be on Wednesdays USDA Crop Production and quarterly stocks report. Estimates are for corn yield and production to drop slightly from the August report. Estimates for beans are for higher yield and production. I would not be surprised to see higher production in both crops given the weather most of the US had in August. There are some trade estimates that 2018/19 soybean ending stocks could reach 1 billion bushels! The lack of exports combined with bigger yields could make this a reality.
Weather maps show most of the Midwest should be warmer and drier for the next 10 days which will result in a ramped up pace of corn harvest in IL, IA, MN. I am expecting producers in WI to start before the end of the month given how fast the crop has changed over the last two weeks.

Below are estimates for Wednesdays report:

USDA 2018/19 US Production (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Corn Yield 177.8 178.4
Corn Production 14.529 14.586
Soybean Yield 52.2 51.6
Soybean Production 4.649 4.586

USDA 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Wheat .941 .935
Corn 1.639 1.684
Soybeans .830 .785

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are both up two this morning, and it looks like we are going to have a dry stretch of weather! Trade is watching to see if the US and Canada form a trade deal by Friday. With a large crop starting to be taken off in the Southern Corn Belt, and a five month high trade deficit of $50 billion, it is extremely important the US can get good trade deals in place soon.

Several yield numbers have been coming in from parts of Illinois, a common theme seen is yield consistent with last year or 10-15 bushels higher. Each day these reports are creeping North, with similar expectations in mind. Make arrangements now to capture a more favorable basis than what is to come.

I would advise making cash sales or basis sales for any bushels that you will have to move this fall. We’ve seen fall basis widen in the past week in most areas, and expect this to happen again. Consider some levels for firm offers:
September $3.30
October/November $3.35-$3.40
December $3.50

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are both currently up three. Today is the last day of pricing on 2017-18 marketing. Markets could possibly see a couple cents added back next week, when rolling into the new month. Overall, do not expect any huge rallies, as weather is no longer playing a pivotal role in the 2018 crop.

FC Stone estimated the monthly corn yield for the US at 177.7 bpa yesterday.

I would advise making cash sales or basis sales for any bushels that you will have to move this fall. Not only do I expect space to be short, I also anticipate basis levels widening in the coming weeks.

Have a Great Holiday Weekend!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Slightly higher markets overnight with both corn and soybeans up 2.

The annual US soy exporters conference wrapped up yesterday without any known sales to Chinese buyers which is a sharp contrast to previous years where billions of dollars worth of soybeans have been signed over to China. The US China trade dispute has obviously had a huge impact on soy product prices, but things will get even worse in the coming months with no export demand and a record harvest on tap.
Canada has returned to the table to discuss a NAFTA 2.0 with the US. The Canadian delegation says that an agreement is possible by Friday, but is doubtful it will happen that quickly. With the US securing a deal with the EU, Mexico and possibly Canada there appears to be building pressure for China to become more agreeable on a trade deal. (don’t expect anything soon)
Producers that do not have storage or are going to be short of storage this fall should be looking to lock up space quickly. In my opinion there are a few things are going to contribute to this falls space shortage.
1. Wheat still being stored in commercial elevators due to toxin issues this past summer that kept them from shipping the 2018 crop.
2. Record soybean production due to acres and great growing conditions will fill a lot of corn space.
3. Lack of soybean exports forcing commercials to sit on soybeans.
4. Carryout of corn and soybeans from the 2017 crop that is still in commercial and producer bins.
5. Average or better than average US 2018 corn crop that will be the last one to the table looking for space.

I would advise making cash sales or basis sales for any bushels that you will have to move this fall. Not only do I expect space to be short, I also anticipate basis levels widening in the coming weeks.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com