Good Morning,

Crop conditions came in lower than analysts expected with corn at 68% good to excellent, and soybeans at 65% good to excellent. Bigger news of the ProFarmer Tour stated above average expectations for South Dakota and parts of Ohio with the first day completed. South Dakota estimated at 178 versus a three year average of 154 bpa. The final yield estimates will be releases at 1:30 on Friday.

Chinese trade negotiations are picking up again today thru Thursday. Nothing solid will come of this, but more ground work is being made. Beyond this, NAFTA continues to negotiate as well.

With crop tours projecting strong yields and great weather forecasts, not much is still standing between having a strong harvest come fall. With that being said we need to really look at options to move remaining old crop corn, whether being cash, basis, or other options. Please call to discuss what can be done.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is currently trading up one, and soybeans down nine. This coming week brings the ProFarmer Tour, which will give real data from fields across the Corn Belt. Coverage will be well maintained after each day, as this is a great benchmark for what can be expected come fall. Both NAFTA and Chinese trade war talks are remaining positive, though nothing solid has come out yet.

Markets aren’t expecting any huge rallies, with the large crop expected, make sure to take advantage of small rallies like we saw yesterday. If you have old crop remaining, September corn is at $3.40 cash. Get offers in if you believe there will be a small rally or call today and ask about other specialty contracts we have to get the bins cleaned out.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Grain markets opened higher this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans up 17. Soybeans are getting support from news that broke last night that the Chinese are sending a delegation to Washington DC later this month to discuss a solution to the trade war. There are also talk that China has entered the bean market with rumors of 15 cargos bought last week and 12 cargos bought early this week for September. The majority of the soybeans are coming from Brazil with 1 cargo coming from Argentina. Weekly export sales released this morning show old corn at 13.3 million bu. and new corn at 41.1 million bu. New crop sales are the largest in the last ten weeks. Old crop soybean sales were 4.9 million and new crop beans were 21.0 million. New crop is slightly above the ten week average.
Ethanol production for the week averaged 1.072 million barrels per day which is down 2.55% from last week but up 1.23% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks are up 5.4% compared to a year ago with production up 2.34% while gasoline demand is down 1.22%. Report out today showed that agricultural export prices fell 5.3% in July from the previous month, which is the biggest drop since October 2011.

Today’s jump in the markets is great news, but producers need to keep in mind that these are just rumors of talks that will/may happen and there is no resolution. We also need to remember the size of the crop that is in the fields now is going to put a lot of pressure on the markets in about a month when harvest begins in the I states.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The selling continues!! Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 8 as last Friday’s WASDE reports continue to weigh on the markets. The report that was a copulation of producer and field sample surveys forecasted record yields in both corn and soybeans. Corn came in at 178.4 bpa and soybeans at 51.6 bpa. Higher production in both resulted in greater ending stocks, particularly soybeans where the stocks to use ratio jumped to 18.44%. Corn stocks to use ratio is currently projected at 11%. The current price of corn on the CBOT is the lowest price we have seen with the stocks to use ratio this low since the inception of the RFSII mandate. The 178.4 bpa appears to be strongly driven by higher population counts combined with kernel length counts. The remainder of the season will prove whether the USDA’s assumptions of test weight support the 178 number.
It was interesting to note that the majority of the increase in yield came from less than half of the major corn producing states. Crop problems in some states were more than offset by the following states:

Illinois = 20 bpa above trend
Indiana = 16 bpa above trend
Iowa = 12 bpa above trend
Nebraska = 12 bpa above trend

Despite the record yield projections in corn, the market in my opinion is still undervalued considering the stocks to use ratio. Historically a stocks to use ratio of 10-12% equates to a cbot price of $4. We are currently trading at $3.70 for the CZ18 contract. Is this underpriced due to tariff issues, or will we see the market come back to the $4 level without tariff resolutions is the question. I believe that without some tariff resolution, we will not see $4 on the CBOT prior to harvest.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets were quiet overnight and should open the same this morning as traders await the 11am release of production estimates from the USDA. This will be the only news traded today and could set the tone for the coming weeks as harvest in the south begins to work its way north. Below are the estimates for today’s report. Be sure to check back at 11am for today’s numbers.

Production (Billion Bu)
USDA August 10 Average Estimate USDA July
Corn Production 14.586 14.411 14.23
Yield 178.4 176.2 174.0
Soybean Production 4.586 4.407 4.310
Yield 51.6 49.6 48.5

Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA August 10 Average Estimate USDA July
Corn 2.027 2.0210 2.0270
Soybeans .430 .460 .465

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com