August 1, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets currently trading two lower on corn and fourteen lower on soybeans. Lower market is led by a much more unstable forecast, versus yesterday’s outlook, as well as profit taking at the beginning of the month.

With the first day of August upon us, we need to realize what seems to be a great crop overall. Most areas to the south are well developed, and our area is pretty far along on development. August updated yield report is just around the corner, and likely not going to lower corn yield from 174. With these pieces of news, below are some targets to consider if we do see some hot/dry weather premium:

Old Crop – Call for options
Fall Delivery – $3.65-3.75
Spring 2019 Delivery – $3.80-3.90
Summer 2019 Delivery – $3.90-4.00

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Significantly stronger markets this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 20 to start the day. Reports from Bloomberg that the US and China are going to resume trade talks has traders optimistic that demand will resurface sooner rather than later for beans. Some added heat in the forecast could add to worries in parts of IA and MO, but may be welcome for the rest of the Midwest as heat could add to the test weight.
Last nights crop conditions report showed corn unchanged at 72% G/E, but I view this number as misleading. Corn conditions dropped in every state except MN, SD, CO, TX, PA and NC. Of those, only MN and SD produce any volume of corn. The worst state continues to be MO which came in at 33% G/E. WI dropped 2% to 81% G/E. Soybeans were similar with the US ratings unchanged at 70% G/E. The only states to increase were SD, IA, MS, NC. MO is also the lowest here at 40% G/E.
Corn has traded higher 11 of the last 12 days with today’s rally. The funds bought 6000 sb and 7000 corn contract yesterday. They are estimated to be short 133k corn and 63k soybeans. With today being month end I would expect to see more buying as traders cover their shorts. Do not be surprised if we see some retracement tomorrow with the beginning of the month.

Producers should be putting in firm offers for new crop (fall/spring and next summer delivery). I would target the following levels for sales:

Fall Delivery – $3.65-3.75
Spring 2019 Delivery – $3.80-3.90
Summer 2019 Delivery – $3.90-4.00

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans up 6. Weather concerns around the world have pushed prices, with crops getting smaller in some areas.
As of last week the Brazilian second crop corn harvest reached 49%, in increase of 13% over last week but still 55% behind the 5 year average. Due to dry conditions and no rain to speak of in the forecast, many farmers are choosing to let the crops naturally dry in the field saving on cost. The Brazilian second crop is currently projected at 57.1 mmt, down over 10 mmt from last year.
There is a lot of talk about how good this corn crop will be and so far it does appear to be racing towards the finish line without many issues. Many expect the yields will be comparable to last year if not larger. There is some concern that the absence of heat may have kernel depth and ear weights lower than last year that will keep us from reaching the full potential.
The US Midwest forecast has precipitation running less than average the next 10 days with temperatures expected to be warmer to above average. The 11-16 day forecast has ridging for the central 2/3rds of the country bringing above average temperatures and below average precipitation to most of the Plains and Midwest.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 10 to start the last day of trading for the week. All commodities have had a good week as corn is up 8, soybeans up 20 and wheat up 20 so far on the week. We have seen more farmer selling this past week as producers take advantage of the recent move higher to move old crop bushels ahead of harvest.
The US and EU trade relations appear to moving in a positive direction which should support grains. Both sides have agreed to move forward on removing tariffs between the two. This agreement isn’t likely to increase corn exports, but does give the markets some positive political news.
8 of the last 10 trading sessions have seen the funs buyers of corn which has reduced their net short position from 153k to 129k. If we could get some more traction on the tariff front in the next couple weeks we could see this this trend continue.
Fundamentally the corn market is trading 20-25 cents below where I think it should be given stocks, demand and the potential size of this years crop. Whether or not we see the market correct is unknown. Producers locally need to be prepared if we don’t see this rally and make sure they have plans in place for this years crop.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

July 26, 2018

Good Morning,

Prices on the CBOT are trading higher after President Trump and EU Commission President agreed to hold off on any new tariffs. However, it was the comment from Mr. Trump that the EU had agreed to “buy a lot of soybeans” that has the bean shorts running for the exits. No one really knows what “a lot of soybeans” means in terms of actual numbers, but the trade definitely viewed the news as bullish as the beans gapped higher and rallied to sharp gains. Corn has followed suit gapping higher, as well, with wheat also trading higher.
The comments from the President were a welcome change and have helped to breathe new life back into the markets. This news makes perfect economic sense for the EU with new crop soybeans out of the Gulf being offered at a $2 per bu. discount to Brazil. Rest assured the EU and everyone else will buy almost every soybean they need from the US so as long as the trade war between the US and China continues.
The EU and GFS models are back in good agreement on the 10-day outlook in calling for a broad ridge/trough pattern to continue through the first week of August. The pattern is expected to bring seasonally cool temps and below normal rainfall to the N. Midwest.

Producers with old crop corn and soybeans to move should take advantage of this news and rally by making sales!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com