Good Morning,

Slightly higher markets overnight as we saw some short covering in corn and soybeans from yesterday spill over into the night session. Slightly lower crop ratings may move the market a little higher when we open this morning, but the ratings are still historically high so any long term moves are doubtful.

Corn came in at 72% G/E for the US compared to 64% last year and a 5 year average of 70%. Wisconsin came in at 82% G/E compared to 75% for the five year average. Soybeans came in at 69% G/E for the US compared to 61% last year and a five year average of 67%.

The US has filed claims with the WTO against China, the EU, Canada, Mexico and Turkey after those countries filed complaints about the Presidents steel and aluminum tariffs. There is some talk that US and China may be talking about trade issues. New $200 billion dollar tariff is due in early September. There may be dialog to resolve issues before then compared to talks last week that China would not meet until after the midterm elections. Some also feel that US soybean export prices are 23% below Brazil and have almost priced in the current 25% tariffs. Unfortunately this is not something that is going to move prices higher for US producers.

Producers looking to move old crop and clean out their bins before the 2018 crop starts to come off should give us a call to discuss some special options that we have for you.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Last week saw fund selling pound the markets lower with both speculators and index funds as big sellers. Hedge funds were sellers for the 7^th consecutive week. Their position has gone from 216,000 contracts long to 73,000 contracts short. In that span we saw corn go from $4 to $3.40.  Thursdays USDA report did little to move the markets despite giving us bullish news with lower stocks in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 crops.

Fundamentally the corn markets remain undervalued by at least 30 cents in my opinion. But rainfall amounts from 1-3 inches fell in areas of Kansas, Illinois, Eastern Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. Showers and moderate temperatures are expected in much of the Midwest during the next two weeks which will be ideal for pollination.

With no major reports to be released until the August 10^th S&D report I would expect weather to be the main market mover for the next couple weeks. The next USDA report historically comes with yield adjustments as they will give state by state forecasts.

Producers looking to move old crop and clean out their bins before the 2018 crop starts to come off should give us a call to discuss some special options that we have for you.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

USDA Supply and Demand report out at 11am this morning. The average corn yield estimate of 174.9 bu/acre may be low given how good the Good/Excellent ratings have been recently (10% higher than last year). Despite the great ratings I would expect the government to be conservative in this report and make bigger adjustments in the August report when we get a state by state breakdown. Today’s estimates are attached below.

Weekly exports were soft again for the week ending 7/5/18 with corn at 15.8 million bu.(13 million below the 10 week average) Soybeans were the worst in the last 8 weeks at 4.7 million bu.(6 million below the 10 week average). I do not see last week’s lower export numbers as a big surprise as it was a shortened week due to the 4^th of July. I would also expect we will see these numbers continue to be low as we near the end of the old crop marketing season. New crop sales for both corn and beans were below their 10 week average, but as US prices continue to fall we are becoming much more competitive in the world market despite the tariffs.(review my commentary from Monday)

Despite the dry weather locally, the US drought monitor has gotten better for the upper Midwest over the last week while areas in Missouri and Kansas have gotten worse.

Billion Bushels

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The Trump administration raised the stakes in its trade war with China yesterday saying it would slap 10% tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports by August 30^th. Last week the US imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods to which the Chinese responded with matching tariffs on the same amount of US goods. The new tariffs announced yesterday targets more consumer goods than those covered under the tariffs imposed last week. President Trump has continued to state that he will take care of the US farmer, but this may take a while and several operations may suffer at the expense of the long term goal.

The USDA will release their monthly supply and demand numbers tomorrow at 11am. Expectations are for corn and soybean stocks in the 17-18 and 18-19 year to increase. Below are the trade estimates.

Billion Bushels

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The corn market gave back Friday’s gains and then some over the last 24 hours.  We are down 15 cents in corn over the last two days and down 22 in soybeans in that same timeframe. This type of trade is why I believe producers should have firm offers in place to take advantage of any technical rallies that the markets may give us.

The markets will likely trader lower as traders begin to look towards Thursdays WASDE report and extended range forecasts that call for temperatures to moderate in the latter half of July.

Traders will continue to bearish the market until we see US and Chinese negotiators sit down for meaningful talks which there appears to be no solid timeline on.

Yesterday afternoons crop ratings showed US corn at 75% Good/Excellent compared to the five year average of 70%. This is 10% better than last year. Wisconsin came in at 83% Good/Excellent which compares to 75% on the five year average and 69% last year. The only states coming in below their five year average were Missouri and Kansas. Soybean conditions came in at 71% Good/Excellent for the US compared to 67% on the five year average. Wisconsin soybeans came in at 81% Good/Excellent.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com