Good Morning,

Corn is up a couple cents this morning after yesterday’s selloff at the closing. As expected we saw traders add to their short positions in corn and soybeans as they prepare for today’s report. Today’s USDA report, warmer temperatures and month end positioning could make for some very volatile trade today. Funds were short 92,000 corn contracts after yesterdays close.

Reports out overnight that China will relax restrictions on foreign investment in some industries including auto, banks and agriculture is being viewed as a step toward resolution of the trade conflict.

The US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes as ridging with hot temperatures will occur next week. The 11-16 day forecast has the ridge moving out with some rains and slightly cooler temps.

Below are today’s estimates.

USDA Quarterly Stocks (billion bu)

USDA Prospective Plantings (million acres)

Check back at 11:00am for todays numbers.

Have a Safe Weekend and Stay Cool!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Look for the markets to remain quiet today with the next USDA report coming out tomorrow at 11am and with no tariff news expected. Expectations for tomorrows reports appear bearish with estimates that both stocks on hand and acreage will be higher. If acreage is only slightly higher I would view it as neutral the markets. But if we get an acreage bump to 89.0 million or more and stocks at 5.3 billion bu. or higher, it could push the markets to new contract lows.
Weekly export sales of corn jumped this week to 33.5 million bu. which is back in line with the ten week average after only 6.5 million last week. Soybean sales were slightly higher at 13.2 million bu. New crop sales of both were strong with corn at 25.1 and soybeans at 23.6.
The numbers and trader reaction to tomorrow’s report are unknown, but regardless of how these numbers come out, we will struggle to move this market higher without some sort of positive trade news with China.

Producers should have firm offers in for old crop slightly above the current levels in case we would see the market initially move higher after tomorrows numbers are released. $3.40-3.50 range would be my target. New crop offers should be handled very similar with offers in the $3.50-3.60 range for fall delivery. I would not recommend any sales for next spring and summer at this time in hopes that our political issues can be resolved by that time.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 9 to start the day. Short term buying or the start of something better is the question. My guess is short term buying as traders begin to position ahead of Fridays report.
Average trade guesses for Friday’s acreage report are 88.56 million acres vs. March’s report of 88.03 million acres. Average guesses for quarterly stocks are 5.268 million bu. compared to last year’s 5.229 for the same time period. 13 of the last 18 years the June acreage report is higher than the March report. Of those 18 years, 6 times it has come in higher in the final report(January).
The 6-10 day weather forecasts are calling for above average temperatures and a lack for precipitation for much of the corn belt. There is adequate soil moisture to withstand the heat and dryness for some time but any prolonged periods of dry and hot weather could produce some issues. The 11-15 day forecast calls for rain in the eastern portion of the corn belt.
Concerns about Chinese demand continue to hang over the market and news that the US intends on unveiling a host of new restrictions on Chinese investment in the US this Saturday, June 30th.
Fundamentally I do not believe we should not be trading as low as we are, but politics has the markets are struggling to find any traction. Producers sitting on old crop corn are running out of time to move it and may not be given many more opportunities. Historically the June Acreage report and July 4th weekend bring an end to any old crop marketing opportunity for producers. This year the end appears to have come much earlier, but time will tell.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Slightly higher markets overnight as we see some retracement after yesterday’s big selloff. Corn was up 3 and soybeans up 5 overnight. Crop conditions last night declined slightly from 78% G/E to 77% but it is the fourth highest rating for this week in history. Conditions declined the most in Kansas and Colorado. Wisconsin came in at 87% G/E compared to 90% last week. This compares to 75% on the 5 year average. National soybean conditions remained unchanged at 73% G/E compared to 68% on average.
I would not be surprised to see some more selling ahead of Fridays USDA report as traders are currently short 76,000 corn and 45,000 soybean contracts.
Concerns about Chinese demand continue to hang over the market following last week’s meltdown and news that the US intends on unveiling a host of new restrictions on Chinese investment in the US next Saturday, June 30th. This did little to calm fears with China expected to retaliate to any new news.
Fundamentally I do not believe we should not be trading as low as we are, but politics has been the “Trump” card as of late and the markets are struggling to find any traction. Producers sitting on old crop corn are running out of time to move it and may not be given many more opportunities. Historically the June Acreage report and July 4th weekend bring an end to any old crop marketing opportunity for producers. This year the end appears to have come much earlier, but time will tell.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Commodities open with a weaker tone this morning as weather forecasts have changed and tariff news remains unchanged. Conditions have been favorable with the forecast showing rain in the next 5 days for the corn belt. The extended forecasts for the first week of July remain warmer with less precipitation, but have cooled since Fridays forecast. Traders will be watching forecasts for the first couple weeks of July for any indication that it gets hotter and drier with pollination expected those weeks for most of the corn belt.
The USDA Acreage and Stocks report is out this Friday at 11am. Corn acreage is expected higher than the March report which could push corn lower. Historically the USDA does not adjust yield until the July or August report after the pollination period. The USDA is currently using an 88 million acres and a 174 bushel per acre yield average for their balance sheet. These numbers would suggest a 1.6-1.7 billion bu. carryout. If we increase acres to 89 million this would increase to 1.8-2.0 billion bu. Acres remaining the same and in increase in yield to 180 bpa(several analyst expectations as of now) would result in a 2.0-2.1 billion bu. carryout with the same acreage. All of these estimates assume that total use remains the same. With the current trade situation around tariffs, demand could drop and increase ending stocks to last years levels!
Fundamentally I do not believe we should not be trading as low as we are, but politics has been the “Trump” card as of late and the markets are struggling to find any traction. Producers sitting on old crop corn are running out of time to move it and may not be given many more opportunities. Historically the June Acreage report and July 4th weekend bring an end to any old crop marketing opportunity for producers. This year the end appears to have come much earlier, but time will tell.

Reminder that we will be closed for grain receipts on Tuesday 6/26/18.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com