Good Morning,

The next 48 hours are going to be very critical to the long term trade as the world waits to see if the US follows thru on its Chinese tariffs that are supposed to be implemented tomorrow. Traders are fearful that if these tariffs are implemented, we will see retaliation tariffs from the Chinese that will greatly impact the farming sector. President Trump is meeting with advisors today considering the tariff situation.
Weekly exports increased in both corn and beans for the week ending 6/7/18. Corn came in at 36.9 million bushels while soybeans were at 19.1 million bushels. This is the highest bean export since early April. Both corn and soybeans were slightly above the 10 week average.
Yesterday afternoon private analyst Informa released their estimate of the 2018 corn acreage. They had corn at 88.7 million acres vs. the USDA’s March number of 88.0. Soybeans were at 89.9 vs. the USDA March number of 89.0. The USDA will release its June acreage and yield estimates on 6/29/18. Historically the June acreage for corn compared to the March intentions has increased 13 of the last 18 years. With the expectation for more acres and an above trend line yield the markets will remain under pressure unless weather becomes an issue.
Political pressure has the corn market trading 9 lower this morning and soybeans down 7. This is just move supporting evidence why producers need to actively sell rallies like we saw on Tuesday! Look at charts under Market Insight on our web page for historical trends in June.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 13, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is down one and soybeans down ten to start the day off. Mixed emotions shown to the market today between decreased stocks and more tariff news. USDA pegged stocks to use at 10.8% yesterday, which is the tightest level since 2013, this tighter supply could lead to buying in the coming days. Trump is threatening he could impose tariffs by Friday on Chinese goods.

Biofuel reform news has taken a back seat since last week, when the Trump Administration said they were not going to reform for aid to oil refiners. Though, on Tuesday, EPA officials have given hope that higher ethanol blend gasoline could still happen.

It’s great that smaller stock numbers have gotten attention, in hopes of finding some support level and direction for making sales. We aren’t to the middle of June yet, with that being said, there is a lot of weather and forecast change that can happen yet. If the market does keep climbing: make sales and offers, do not bank on huge weather premiums.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Additional technical selling in corn, beans and wheat yesterday as traders continue to unwind their long positions with good crop ratings and favorable weather. Yesterday’s weekly corn ratings dropped 1 point to 77% G/E which compares to 67% last year and 70% for the 5 year average. Wisconsin remained unchanged from last week at 91% G/E. The early condition of this years crop is going to make it very difficult to rally this market, which is why I believe producers should have firm offers in just above the market for old and new crop corn. Producers should have 70-80% of their old crop sold and 40-50% of their new crop booked at this point. Sales for the 2019 crop of 10% are also recommended.

The USDA S&D report will be out at 11am today. Below are today’s estimates. Check back shortly after 11 for the real numbers.

USDA 2017-18 ending stocks (billion bu)
USDA June 12 Ave Est. USDA May
Corn 2.166 2.182
Soybeans .522 .530
Wheat 1.079 1.070

USDA 2018-19 ending stocks (billion bu)
USDA June 12 Ave. Est. USDA May
Corn 1.663 1.682
Soybeans .417 .415
Wheat .958 .955

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Favorable weekend rains across the US along with continued fund liquidation has the markets seeing red this morning. So far this morning corn is down 3, soybeans down 7 and wheat is down 4. After Fridays close the Funds were long 60,000 corn and 36,000 soybean contracts. For reference they were long 188,000 corn and 125,000 soybeans one month ago. With this afternoon’s crop conditions report and tomorrows USDA Supply and Demand report on the horizons I look for traders to reduce these positions more today. Reminder that tomorrow’s report will not have any change to acres or yield. Any adjustments to acreage and yield will come in the June 29th acreage report.
I don’t expect the markets to remain in these current levels much longer. There is a lot of investment money that has moved to the sidelines in the last week that I expect to re-enter the market in the coming weeks. Whether they will push the markets lower or higher will all be driven by weather.

Have a Safe day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Steady markets to start the day after a bad week for the grains. Corn has traded lower 4 days this week losing 15 cents while soybeans have traded lower all 5 days this week losing 48 cents as of 830 am. There are several factors pressuring the markets this week, but here are the main ones:
1. Weather is favorable. Warm and wet weather across the Midwest has this crop off to one of the best starts in history.
2. Poor export numbers in soybeans and corn the last few weeks.
3. Political tensions between the US and several of our trade partners as trade wars escalate. China and Mexico are the largest.
An improved weather forecast that is trending cooler and wetter for the Midwest next week has been encouraging additional liquidation of long positions that traders hold. With the funds still long 113,00 corn and 60,000 soybean contracts and no major Midwest drought in the forecast I would expect more volatility in the coming weeks. Iowa, the #1 corn producing state (20% of US total) is off to a great start with 81% of the crop rated good/excellent.
There has been limited progress on the China trade negotiations, but President Trump plans to leave the G7 summit hours earlier than planned after a war of words broke out between him and the leaders of France and Canada over trade.
I don’t believe now is the time to be making sales of new crop, but would strongly advise producers to have firm offers in place. This market is very volatile and any rally we may see will be very short lived. Old crop offers should be in place as well, but at much lower levels than we were looking for two weeks ago. Next Tuesdays S&D report could add more pressure to the downside for commodities if we see larger inventories.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com