September 18, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are weaker to start the week with corn down 6 and soybeans down 17.
Follow through selling from last week’s bearish report along with favorable harvest weather have the market on it heals today. Weather looks to offer a wide-open week for harvest to keep rolling or get rolling in several areas of the US with no storms in the eastern corn belt until the weekend.
Early yield reports out of IA, IL, OH, IN have varied, but overall are above producer expectations and in line if not above APH’s. Lower moisture and good test weights have been reported in almost every area of the country where harvest has begun. Despite concerns it appears that the hot and dry conditions this summer helped add starch to the kernel.
It appears that it is time to throw in the towel for producers sitting on old crop corn as end users appear to be covered and early harvest is weakening basis across the country. September corn is currently trading at a 40-cent premium to October corn and that premium is slipping away quickly.
Traders will be looking to this afternoon’s crop progress report to see how much of the crop is in the dent stage and how much harvest progress has been made.
Have a Safe Day.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 14, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 1 to start the day.
The current soy/corn ratio is 2.81. The markets are dealing with a situation where we have too much corn (especially in the US), and too few beans. The global marketplace in the Southern Hemisphere will likely work to correct that imbalance this upcoming planting season. Overall, though, world-ending carryout’s are just fine on both commodities – we have the largest ending stocks ever on soybeans worldwide and the second largest ever on corn. Prices will continue to struggle without a change in demand or a weather issue in S. America.
Mississippi river levels are a major concern and have barge freight at or near record highs. This will continue to dominate the headlines over the next couple months as harvest progresses in the north with limited outlets for grain to head south. Producers needing to move grain at harvest should be locking in cash prices or at least basis ASAP.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 12, 2023
Good morning,
USDA report day. Trade estimates and final report data are listed below.
2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)
USDA Sept. | Average Trade Est. | USDA Aug. | |
Corn | 1.452 | 1.460 | 1.457 |
Soybeans | .250 | .255 | .260 |
2023/24 Carryout (billion bu)
USDA Sept. | Average Trade Est. | USDA Aug. | |
Corn | 2.221 | 2.140 | 2.202 |
Soybeans | .220 | .207 | .245 |
Wheat | .615 | .613 | .615 |
2023 US Harvested Acreage (Million Acres)
USDA Sept. | Average Trade Est. | USDA Aug. | |
Corn | 87.100 | 86.442 | 86.322 |
Soybeans | 82.800 | 82.838 | 82.696 |
USDA 2023 Yield (Bushels per Acre)
USDA Sept. | Average Trade Est. | USDA Aug. | |
Corn | 173.8 | 173.5 | 175.1 |
Soybeans | 50.1 | 50.2 | 50.9 |
USDA 2023/24 Production (Billion Bu)
USDA Sept. | Average Trade Est. | USDA Aug. | |
Corn | 15.134 | 15.008 | 15.111 |
Soybeans | 4.146 | 4.157 | 4.205 |
We are going to need to see some dramatic changes to demand to move corn higher and that doesn’t appear to be in the cards for 2024.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 11, 2023
Good morning,
Markets were higher overnight with corn up 2 and soybeans up 7.
Look for the markets to be flat today as traders await tomorrow’s USDA report. Estimates for tomorrow’s report are listed below.
2023 Production (Bushel/Acre and Billion Bushels)
Average Estimate | USDA August | USDA 2022 | |
Corn Yield | 173.3 | 175.1 | 173.3 |
Corn Production | 14.994 | 15.111 | 13.730 |
Soybean Yield | 50.0 | 50.9 | 49.5 |
Soybean Production | 4.139 | 4.205 | 4.276 |
2023/24 Carryout (Billion Bushels)
Average Estimate | August 2023 | |
Corn | 2.140 | 2.202 |
Soybeans | .207 | .245 |
Wheat | .613 | .615 |
Crops have gotten smaller in August, how much so is up for debate. It’s difficult to get the markets too excited in corn unless yields drop to 170 or lower. This seems unlikely as big crops in the south and east should offset problems in the NW.
Have a Safe Day.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
September 5, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are mixed to start the day with corn up 3 and soybeans down 2.
The ridge breaks down this week bringing more normal temperatures and chances for rain around the Midwest. The weekend was hot and dry as crop conditions headed backwards for another week. The driest areas will remain the same as most of the rains are pushed up North or settle in the Southwest.
Russia attacked Odessa and Danube River grain facilities over the weekend. Russia has said they will try to prevent grain out of the Ukraine leaving through the Black Sea. No compromise for a Black Sea grain corridor has been met.
Private estimates will start to come out this week for the next USDA report that will be released on the 12th. Look for the markets to trade sideways to higher today with the expectations that the crop conditions dropped over the last week with hot and dry conditions. For the time being we appear range bound and will need some outside news or early harvest reports that are disappointing to move this market higher.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844