Good morning,

Report Day!! Today is the big day for the March Planting Intentions Report.  This report has created some strong moves in the market on the day of and the week after.  Believe it or not, this report has been bullish for corn more often than not.  The stocks report is also a driver as the USDA measures how fast corn, soy and wheat use.

As for acres, I think we see a close to 50/50 split between corn and bean acres.  I think this is what the survey will say, not actually the way it will turn out.  There have been prevent plant acres for corn that are going to find a way back into production.  Also, it seems like inputs are easier to get and are more affordable.  Many producers think they have a better chance to make money growing corn.  I think the final number for corn will end up being larger than today’s figures baring good planting weather.

US Planted Acres (million acres)

March 1^st Stocks (million bushels)

Check back after 11:00 am for the numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Overnight corn and wheat were up 2 and soybeans were up 1.

It feels like the markets are in the pre-report ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of tomorrow’s report. Pre report estimates are listed below. There will be a lot of data to digest tomorrow so it is hard to say what is the most important. Acres are likely to change one way or another from tomorrows estimate so they may not carry as much weight as Stocks. It doesn’t take much prevent plant to tighten the balance sheets and with snowpack in the northern plains we may see more than the trade is expecting. March 1^st stocks will be my focus as I look to see what the producer has moved over the last few months as prices have been historically decent but declining due to the lack of demand.

US Planted Acres (million acres)

March 1 Stocks (million bushels)

Report days can be quiet or very volatile for the markets. I have seen many report days where the market spikes higher or lower for a short period following the release of numbers only to trade back to unchanged once traders have digested the numbers. My advice heading into the report is to have any old crop sold that you need to move over the next couple months and have 25-40% of your new crop sold. With current old crop prices in the $6.40-$6.50 range and new crop prices in the 5.50-5.70 range there is money to be made, don’t miss out. In addition to sales, be sure to have firm offers in with your buyers to capture any short spike we may see. Give us a call today to discuss!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 2 and soybeans are down 3 to start the week.

The recent selloff has the funds short corn futures for the first time since August of 2020. The funds are currently short corn by about 40,000 contracts. It is going to be hard to get the funds to go long corn contracts again until some weather situation develops in the US.

Traders will turn their focus to this Fridays Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report that will be released at 11am. Quarterly stocks could hold some surprises as feed and residual usage along with exports for corn have deviated from the market’s expectations in the last few weeks. Cattle numbers have declined, and ethanol run rates have been reduced in several areas of the country due to the lack of corn. Despite the recent uptick in export sales, none of these will be reflected in Friday’s report as they will be shipped in Q2 or Q3. Most of the private estimates I have seen expect 91 million acres of corn plantings. Keep in mind the Prospective Plantings report is a report of farmer “intentions” this year, not an actual assessment of what will likely be planted. Under this idea, the intention of farmers should be to plant as much acreage as possible, especially under the current balance sheet situations, but weather can and likely will have a considerable impact on what gets put in the ground relative to early March intentions.

A Farm Futures magazine survey of 800 producers, conducted via email from March 4-14, estimated 2023 U.S. corn plantings at 87.7 million acres, down from 88.6 mln ac last year, with soybeans at 89.6 mln ac, up from 87.45 mln ac last year. All-wheat plantings were seen at 45.7 mln ac, in line with 2022.

I would advise producers to get some new crop sales on the books ahead of Fridays report and additional offers in place for the report. Give us a call to discuss prices.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

The grain markets have opened quieter this morning with corn unchanged, soybeans unchanged and wheat down 4.

The U.S. banking system is stabilizing after strong actions from regulators, but further steps to protect bank depositors may be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that threaten more contagion, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to tell bankers on Tuesday. Surprisingly, the financial markets appeared to have little effect on the grain markets over the past week. Prices were in the process of forming bottoms as the funds had liquidated most of their long corn and soybean oil positions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed Beijing’s proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine during a first day of talks in Moscow and they were meeting again on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.  No progress has been made as Russia stands firm in their position.

Russia laid out its reasoning for only agreeing to a 60-day extension of the Black Sea grain export deal, looking for the restoration of access to the SWIFT financial system for the country’s agriculture bank, along with the resumption of farm machinery supplies and the unblocking of foreign ag assets. Putin also suggested free grain shipments to African countries, noting that Ukraine exports were prioritizing European destinations. Russia also claims that “no official notifications” were received from the other parties to the deal saying they were against the 60-day term, and Putin followed that up by warning that Russia could drop the grain deal when the 60 days ended.

The USDA reported a two-point increase in Kansas winter wheat ratings this week, from 17% to 19% good/excellent, with number two acreage state Texas up from 17% to 23%, while OK fell from 30% to 29% g/ex, and CO fell from 40% to 36% this week. TX corn was 40% planted, up from the 35% 5YA.

Corn seeding is almost complete in LA.  Seeding in MS is 7% complete with AR at 1%.  Progress will be slow as heavy rains have fallen in the South.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

The markets are taking a beating again today with corn down 10, soybeans down 12 and wheat down 18.

The USDA cut the Argentina crop by a record 8 mmt of beans and 7 mmt of corn in yesterday’s report.  The USDA also lowered corn exports by 75 million bushels while raising bean exports by 25 million bushels.  They also reduced crush by 10 million bushels resulting in a carryout of 210 million bushels.  The wheat balance sheet was left alone.

Following the report, the market quickly faded in all commodities.  Corn headed back to the recent low and wheat made a new one.  Elevators and crushers are oversupplied with soybeans as Brazil continues to ship new crop. Short-term supplies will flood the market, but now the long-term outlook is in jeopardy as Argentina will not be able to export many beans or oil to China.

Brazil’s Conab raised their 2022/23 corn production estimate from 123.7 to 124.7 million tonnes this morning, with first crop output up from 26.46 to 26.76 MMT, and second crop output up from 95.0 to 95.6 MMT. Soybean production was cut from 152.9 to 151.4 MMT this month.

The Rosario Exchange yesterday cut their 2022/23 Argentine soybean export estimate from 34.5 to 27.0 MMT, the worst on record since the turn of the century when the Exchange began keeping records. Corn output was slashed from 42.5 to 35.0 MMT.

Right now the market is discounting the losses in Argentina as US supplies and Brazil’s crop size outweigh the losses. I don’t think we continue to trend lower, but unless we have a spring planting delay, we could easily see another 25-50 cent drop in the market.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com