Good morning,

Grain markets are taking a hit this morning with corn down 4, soybeans down 20 and wheat down 12 to start the day.

The market broke down yesterday when China cancelled slightly more than 12 million bushels of corn purchases from the US.  Brazilian harvest is 95% complete at this point and the last of grain is moving to the market at significant discounts to US corn.  Brazilian corn is currently at a steep discount to US gulf corn by close to two dollars per bushel. We had been hearing of switching getting done out of US to Brazil and this is the evidence.

Corn planting progress came in at 14% complete yesterday, up from 8% last week, 7% last year, and the 11% five-year average; corn emergence initially came in at 3%, up from 2% both LY and on average. Soybean planting rose from 4% to 9% done, up from 3% LY and the 4% 5YA.

The forecast remains cool for the next 15 days and after current storms move out the weather will be mostly dry.  Not much rain is forecast for the Central US over the next 7-10 days.  Planting is going to move ahead quickly next week.

With planting rolling along and no premium being given for the potential planting delays in the Dakotas and Minnesota and export cancellations, the tops appear to be in for the time being. We could still see some weather premiums in the coming months, but I would not be surprised to see additional export cancellations which will limit moves.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 4 while soybeans are up 10 to start the week. Given the recent change in weather one would have expected the opposite coming into this morning.

The US planted somewhere between 15-20% of the corn crop and 5% of the bean crop in the last week with great weather across the growing region.  Progress will be out by the USDA at 3 o’clock today. Cold wet weather is forecast across the Central US over the next 10 days.  The 15-day forecast stays cold in the Upper Midwest and Canada.  More snow is on the way this week and into next. This will limit planting for the next week which will keep the early planting pace in line with historical.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative is facing difficulties on multiple fronts as its May 18^th renewal continues to be in jeopardy. Besides Russia’s continuous statements regarding the West not holding up their end of the bargain in re-opening the banking system for ag exports and removing obstacles on fertilizer exports. The inspection of Ukrainian vessels in Turkish waters again saw no activity for a second time in several weeks over the weekend, with Ukraine blaming Russia for not participating in inspections. Additionally, several Black Sea region countries have banned imports of Ukrainian grains as they say the considerable amount of product moving through their territories is detrimentally impacting domestic prices of their grains.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

This morning corn is down 1 and soybeans are down 2.

US corn and bean carryout were left the same yesterday and wheat moved up to 598 vs 568 a month ago.  Argentina corn production dropped from 40 mmts down to 37 mmts and bean were dropped from 33 to 27 mmts.  Brazil corn held steady at 125 and beans up 1 mmt at 154 mmt.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 World Carryout (million tonnes)

The Russians said the Black Sea grain deal “could not stand on one leg” and that the outlook for the agreement “is not good”, continuing to note obstacles for Russian agriculture and fertilizer exports. Meanwhile, Romanian farmers are threatening to begin a nationwide protest on June 7 unless the country bans Ukrainian grain imports and transit. UKR Railways has also suspended cargo transportation to Poland until further notice, including wheat & grains.  Russia wants the SWIFT banking system opened up and sanctions dropped.  Their old crop export window is closing as most of what they needed to sell has been moved out at a record pace.  They won’t need to move much grain until the winter wheat crop arrives early this summer.

US weather looks good for planting over the next week.  A warmup until the weekend when some light showers develop around the Midwest. More rain has been added to the weekend totals of .25-1 inch with about 50% coverage.  Next week will be on the cool side.  

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 18 to open the day as traders await the 11am crop report. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 World Carryout (million tonnes)

Corn planting progress came in at 3% complete yesterday afternoon, up from 2% last week, last year, and on average. Spring wheat plantings were initially reported at 1% complete, down from 6% last year and 4% on average. Winter wheat heading rose just a point to 7%, still ahead of 5% LY and 4% on average, with ratings of the crop down a point this week to 27% good/ excellent, below 32% last year and the 47% 5YA figure.  These are the worst ratings for hard wheat from back to 1996.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Weaker markets to open the day with corn down 9, soybeans down 10 and wheat unchanged.

The initial U.S. Crop Progress Report for the spring showed winter wheat ratings falling from 34% to 28% good/excellent, down from 30% last year and the 43% five-year average. There is a risk of abandonment in wheat acres if rain doesn’t start to fall. Corn planting matched last year and the 5YA at 2% done.

StoneX Brazil estimated 2022/23 Brazilian soybean production at a record 157.7 MMT this month, up three million tonnes from last month; total corn production rose from 130.6 to 131.3 MMT, despite second-crop corn being down from 100.8 to 100.5 MMT this month.

Snow is falling in the Dakotas and Minnesota with up to a foot expected to be dumped on this region that is already sitting with a historically large snowpack for this time of year. Temps are expected to warm up for the region after the snow event over the next several days. By the end of next week, they are expecting highs in the 70’s. The planting intentions report showed farmers in this area intending to plant more corn, but if conditions hinder planting, we could see a shift to soybeans. Next week’s weather forecast coming true should keep planting intentions unchanged.

Reminder there are no markets on Friday April 7^th.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com