Good morning,

Corn is down 2, soybeans are down 3 and wheat is down 4 to start the day.

The USDA estimated 2024 U.S. corn plantings at 91.0 million acres in their Ag Forum commodity outlook this morning, down from 94.6 million acres in 2023; yields are initially seen at 181.0 bushels per acre with production at 15.040 billion bushels and carryout at 2.532 billion bu. Soybean acreage came in at 87.5 million ac, up from 83.6 million last year; yields are seen at 52.0 bushels per acre with output at 4.505 billion  bushels and carryout at 435 million bu. All-wheat acreage of 47.0 million would be down from 49.6 million acres in 2023, with yields there at 49.5 bushels per acre, production at 1.9 billion  bushels, and ending stocks at 769 million bushels for 2024/25.

Historically the trade doesn’t react too much to the Ag Forum numbers that are released as they are just a guess as to what we will really see. They may influence the March 29^th planting intentions a little but ultimately it is what gets planted in April and May and what the yield is in October and November that matter. Historically these numbers are not too far off which means the tone is set for traders over the next couple of months. We are potentially looking at a 2.5+ billion-bushel carryout in corn! That screams sub $4.50 corn to me. Times have changed, but the last time we saw a carryout that high (2005 we had a 2.54 billion bushel) we had the average on farm cash price around $2.05! I don’t think we go to that level, but sub $4 is in the cards for this coming fall if something dramatic doesn’t change.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn opened 4 lower, soybeans 3 lower and wheat 15 lower to start the day.

The USDA AG Forum data is supposed to be bearish today with higher carryout for corn, beans and wheat.  For me the most interesting part of this report will be the planted acres. Private estimates are expecting about a 3-million-acre shift from corn to soybeans. This shift, if seen, would be helpful but would not change the balance sheet by a lot next year. I have run numbers using 91 million acres (down 3.6 million from 2023) yield at 172 bushels per acre (5 bushel below last 2023) and we still have a carryout of 1.9 billion bushels. This is assuming demand the same as 2023 which I think will be hard to meet.

Argentina was dry yesterday and remains so going forward, with chances holding far west into the 6–10-day period as most corn and soybean regions stays dry. Temperatures will rise next week as well. Brazilian precipitation favored southern crop areas over the past 24 hours, shifting center-north over the next ten days to aid moisture there, while southern regions remain drier.

Short term technical indicate that we could break lower and continue to create new lows. If you need to sell grain in the next 60 days, I would look to get it done soon as support has been and looks to be absent.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 15 to start the day ahead of the USDA report.

This morning Conab cut their official 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production estimate from 155.2 to 149.4 MMT, with corn down from 117.6 to 113.7 MMT; second crop corn output fell from 91.2 to 88.1 MMT this month.

The USDA will release their February numbers at 11:00 am. Estimates are listed below.

 USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Conab came out lesser Brazilian corn and bean crops, now it’s up to the USDA next at 11:00 today.  Will the adjustments be minor, or will they make the larger cut in Brazilian crops?  Harvest data suggest the crop is down 15% in Mato Grosso and Parana in both corn and beans.  US balance sheets will go mostly unchanged.  Corn exports have been strong, and beans are on the losing pace in exports predicted.  Crush is ahead of pace for soybeans, so it unlikely the carryout grows today.  This report is usually not a big one and the markets are already down heading into it in very oversold conditions, especially corn.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are falling again this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 11.

Rains arriving in Argentina and chart-based selling by AI trading have markets weaker.  Corn was weak all day yesterday and has made a new low this morning. Argentine rains fell center-south yesterday, and light rains are on tap there again today, with heavier and more widespread action ahead tomorrow through Sunday as temperatures trend cooler through the weekend as well. 6–10-day maps push out rain chances to the far west and north. Scattered rains again fell throughout center-north Brazil over the past 24 hours, also increasing in scope and amounts through the weekend, with rain chances moving out here as well to the west and south during the 6–10-day time frame.

The Funds are short 283,000 corn, short 111,000 beans, short 18,000 meal, short 54,000 beans oil, and short 75,000 wheat.

Beans have dropped through 12 dollars again.  The USDA report is out tomorrow, but most believe that reports will be bearish corn and beans.  The market is breaking ahead of it, kind of like the last report. Tomorrow’s estimates are listed below.

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 3 and soybeans are up 3 to start the day.

AgRural reported Brazilian center-south corn planting at 27% complete, up 11% on the week and the fastest pace since record began in 2013. The soybean crop is 16% harvested, up five points on the week.

Rains fell in southern Argentina yesterday but fill in to almost all crop areas through Saturday; forecasts are wetter north/drier south for the 6-10 day. Brazil saw some widespread rains over the past 24 hours, and more is on the way over the next five days, with the best chances shifting west/south for the 6-10.

We will get the February WASDE report on Thursday the 8^th at 11am. This report is usually uneventful from a domestic standpoint and the trade doesn’t expect to see any major changes in the US demand picture.

Thursday will also bring CONAB’s report on the latest Brazilian numbers. Both CONAB and the USDA remain much higher than many in the trade for the Brazilian soybean production numbers. It will be interesting to see if either one of them adjust lower on Thursday.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com