Daily Insights

July 11, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn and soybeans are both up 6 to start the day.

 

The markets have been tough lately from a producer’s perspective. As the crop marches forward and continues to look better and better, the markets seem to be weeks ahead and projecting a very big yield. Rains in the Midwest have the Funds convinced of above trendline yields and burdensome stocks coming this fall. With the funds position sitting at record short positions, it doesn’t appear that they are going to move things higher unless we harvest a significantly smaller crop. Unfortunately, if that does come to fruition, it won’t be seen in the markets until early Q1.

 

Corn condition ratings jumped to 68% G/E on Monday which was 6% above the five-year average and 13% above last year.

 

Demand for US corn has been lagging for some time and low prices are struggling to spark new demand. Corn demand this year is the 3rd largest over the past 5 years which isn’t terrible, but the markets perception is that it is going to get worse due to Chinese demand. China is far behind on purchases from the US.

 

Fridays USDA report estimates are listed below.

 

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bushels)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   2.022 2.049
Soybeans   .350 .355

 

 

USDA 2024 US Yield (bushels per acre)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   181.0 180.8
Soybeans   52.0 51.9

 

 

USDA 2024 Production (billion bushels)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   14.860 15.063
Soybeans   4.450 4.424

 

 

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (billion bushels)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   2.102 2.312
Soybeans   .455 .449
Wheat   .758 .788

 

If realized, the above numbers would most likely move the markets lower tomorrow. I would advise producers to get old crop sales and new crop sales on the books ahead of this report.

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

July 3, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is down 2 and soybeans are up 6 to start the day.

 

It feels like the market is beginning to level out. The June planting & stocks report is still being digested and disputed, but we are moving on. Going forward, the weather will continue to dominate the market until new crops come out of the field. We will likely see harvest begin in the Deep South within two weeks. National crop conditions remain above the five-year average, hot temperatures are pushing the crop along quicker than in a typical year, and this may put additional pressure on basis values in the south, which will work its way north.

 

Limited traders today and Friday could lead to some volatility in the markets today considering tomorrow the market is closed in celebration of Independence Day and several will make it a four-day weekend.

 

As I noted earlier this week, once we hit the Fourth of July it becomes difficult for the markets to rally. Make sure you are getting sales on the books for old and new crops before we see a $3 in front of the cash bid.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

July 1, 2024

Good morning,

 

Markets are lower to start the month of July with corn down 5 and soybeans down 2.

 

We are seeing some follow through selling after Fridays WASDE report. In case you missed it the report had corn acreage at 91.475 million vs pre-report estimates of 90.353 million. We had soybean acreage at 86.1 vs estimates at 86.75 million acres. Stocks were neutral/bearish as corn stocks came in roughly 120 million bushels above estimates at 4.99 billion bushels and soybeans were basically right in line at 970 million vs estimates at 962 million. These numbers were bearish corn and neutral soybeans.

 

Now that the USDA has settled the acreage issue, the trade will focus on weather and try to define the yield potential. Yield is in the hands of mother nature and the weather over the next couple of months with the next few weeks being some of the most critical as we get closer to pollination. Current weather models are wetter and cooler which should be favorable.

 

While prices may not be where we want them, things could get worse by the time we get to harvest. I would advise producers to get some new crop sales on the books as the markets historically trend lower once we hit July. (see attached graph with the last ten years)

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

June 28, 2024

Good morning,

 

It’s report day! The USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage report will be released at 11:00am today. Early this morning corn and soybeans are slightly higher as traders’ position for the report. Check back after 11:00 for the updated numbers.

 

 

USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

  June 2024 June 2023 Average Est.
Corn 4.993 4.103 4.873
Soybeans .969 .796 .962
Wheat .702 .570 .684

 

 

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

  June 1, 2024 March 31, 2024 Average Est.
Corn 91.475 90.036 90.353
Soybeans 86.100 86.510 86.753
Wheat 47.240 47.498 47.657

 

 

Producers are advised to get some old and new crop sales on the books before todays report. Unless we see a dramatic drop in corn acres, prices will struggle to move higher.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

June 24, 2024

Good morning,

Markets are down 7 in corn and up 35 in soybeans this morning.

With the key Stocks and Acres update on Friday, we could see some short covering later this week. I do expect a lower crop rating this afternoon, but nothing severe. The weather forecast into the July 4th weekend looks positive for the crops which will limit any market rally unless Friday’s report is bullish.

There are only a handful of sessions left to trade before the key Stocks and Acreage reports are released. Growers with too much old corn still unpriced face some difficult decisions. Be sure and get to a more comfortable position on old and new crop sales prior to the June 28th report.

USDA June 1 Stocks (billion bushels)

  USDA June 2024 Average Est. USDA June 2023
Corn   4.873 4.103
Soybeans   .962 .796
Wheat   .684 .570

 

USDA 2024 June Acreage (million acres)

  USDA June 2024 USDA March 31 Average Est.
Corn   90.036 90.353
Soybeans   86.510 86.753
All Wheat   47.498 47.657
Winter Wheat   34.135 34.197
Spring Wheat   11.335 11.340
Durum   2.028 1.998

 

 

Have a safe day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com