August 2, 2022
Good morning,
Yesterday’s selloff continues this morning with corn down 9 and soybeans down 12.
In news out of the Ukraine, the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain to world markets since Russia’s invasion blocked exports more than five months ago is on track to safely arrive in Istanbul on Tuesday night, Turkey said, amid Ukrainian fears it could still run into problems. Turkey expects roughly one grain ship to leave Ukrainian ports each day as long as the safe passage agreement holds, a senior Turkish official, who asked to remain anonymous, said on Tuesday.
Last night’s corn condition ratings were steady this week at 61% good/excellent, still down from 64% last year and the 65% five-year average pace; corn silking and doughing remained behind their respective paces at 80% and 26%, respectively. Soybean ratings rose a point to 60% g/ex, even with last year but below the 63% 5YA; blooming and pod-setting also stayed behind their metrics at 79% and 44%, respectively.
Brazil yesterday raised their 2021/22 second-crop corn output estimate from 90.7 to almost 93.0 MMT, up from 59.2 MMT last year. The initial 2022/23 soybean crop estimate came in at a record 152.6 MMT, up almost 20% from last year due to nearly a 4% increase in plantings and a sharp rise in national yields. ‘22/23 exports are seen at an even 100 MMT, up from 77 MMT in ‘21/22. First-crop corn was pegged at 30.3 MMT, up almost 15% from last year despite a small loss in planting acreage this coming season. Total corn output this year is pegged at 125.5 MMT, vs 121.6 MMT this year.
The 10-day forecast is a mix of what we saw with the GFS and EU models yesterday. Some light rain is forecast to pop up in Iowa and heavier amounts are forecast in the Southeast. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio could get up to an inch in the next week. Hot temps are moving into the Plains where moisture will be limited. The forecast is not as bearish this morning as the two maps that were put out yesterday. There is still some rain on the radar, but Iowa, Nebraska and Western Minnesota have been short on rain for the last month.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 1, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are sharply lower to start the week with corn down 15 and soybeans down 50.
Market initially opened higher last night and quickly ran into selling. The first grain ship has left the port of Odessa and is headed to Africa. Another vessel is said to be hung up clogging up a shipping lane. Over the weekend Russia attacked and killed the owner of Nibulon, the largest grain exporter in the Ukraine. Ukrainian presidential officials have said 17 ships are docked in Black Sea ports with almost 600,000 tonnes of cargo, mostly grain. More ships would follow, Kubrakov said.
This morning we have the tale of two forecasts to contend with. The first is the GFS that shows a dome building and pushing rains to the East over Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. The second is the EU model that shows more than just general rain across the Midwest, it has 2-3 inches across large areas. This is much wetter than was even advertised yesterday. Temps are going to heat up this week with 100 degrees coming to the Plains and Western Midwest. We knew there was weather risk for a map change when we left on Friday and that’s how it’s starting out this Monday. The GFS says little rain, the EU says a lot.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
July 28, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are off to a stronger start today with corn up 11, soybeans up 27 and wheat up 16.
Prices are higher off threatening weather and the confirmation of the Fed rate increase of .75. The Central Bank said they will study data and see how the economy looks before additional increases are added to borrowing rate in the future. The Fed is looking for a soft landing and wants to avoid recession. Fighting inflation with interest increases to avoid a recession is an almost impossible scenario for the US Government to work out of. If the Govt can’t cut back spending, it’s all for nothing. Walmart put a major warning out that stores are selling a lot less products and AT&T said customers have quit paying phone bills. Housing sales are down sharply as is new construction. There are some major problems going on here and energy prices have not backed off. The US government has been selling out the strategic reserve at and unprecedented rate with little available.
The 10-day forecast has rain in the south and not much in the Central US. Some rain has been placed up in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which makes sense as the ridge develops, and rain is pushed North. The heat starts to build in Texas and move North and East this weekend. This looks to be a prolonged hot dry period over most of the Central US. Crops will struggle as temps will reach 100 degrees again. These weather patterns continue to change and so far, have not been as severe as forecasted. If this continues, we may see the markets a little higher than current levels, but no significant climbs are expected. We got thru July which is the month that weather is most critical. Rains now will just increase the crop size in the upper Midwest.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 19, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are down hard to start the day with corn down 20 and soybeans down 23.
Corn ratings remained steady last night with 64% of the crop rated good to excellent. This is unchanged from last week and 1% below the five year average. The current ratings are most similar to 2017 and 2021 in comparison. Both of these years suffered further declines in the coming weeks, but both still stand as the two highest yielding national crops on record.
The Midwest remains dry this week but chances will pick up starting Saturday in the northern areas for rain. Extended maps are more variable with forecasters seeing decent rain chances in the north for the 6-10 day range. Those chances move into the southeast areas in the 11-15 day range. Look for extreme heat for the heart of the corn belt, with more variability in temperatures moving forward.
Weather will continue to move this market higher and lower as we move thru the growing season. Rains are needed with the excessive heat we will see in the coming days, but overall the crop is in line to hit the USDA’s 177 bpa level if not exceed it.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 15, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are mixed this morning as we head into the weekend. Corn is currently up 4 while soybeans are down 2.
This past week has been a wild ride of ups and downs as old crop corn had a 80 cent trading range. Weekend rains and continuous changes in weather forecasts kept the markets lively. Tuesdays USDA report gave the corn market more bearish news as stocks climbed more than expected. This was followed up with more weather trading.
It is interesting to note that while Tuesdays Stocks report was bearish the markets, if you look at recent years, we are on the low side. The projected 1.4 billion bushel carryout would be the lowest since 2012/13.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
