Good morning,

USDA WASDE report will be released at 11:00 am today. Estimates for todays report are listed below.

21/22 US ending stocks (million bu)

22/23 US ending stocks (million bu)

22/23 Production (million bu/million acres)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 20.

Yesterdays early gains faded as we closed the day due to changes in the weather pattern and positioning heading into Friday’s report.

The largest change in the weather is the ridge has moved out of the West and sets up Northwest into Canada. As this ridge leaves the chances of rain increase around the Midwest.  Where it’s been dry out West showers are forecast into next week.  Rain is also forecast from Iowa North into Minnesota and Canada.  This is a completely different pattern that would have been pretty bearish two weeks ago.  Some areas are still going to miss like Illinois and Missouri.

Tomorrows WASDE report will keep things in check today as traders position ahead of the unknown the USDA will give us. Expectations are for lower yields in corn and soybeans due to drought in the west, but could be limited by a favorable eastern crop.  What will the USDA do, we have not idea as its almost never what anyone expects. Any carryout below 1.3 million bushel is going to run the corn market higher as that could put the stocks/use ratio close to 9%.

Producers hanging on to old crop should be exiting that position quickly as basis levels continue to deteriorate. The CBOT appears to be range bound but any upside in the board is going to result in basis levels widening even further.

Have a safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 8 and soybeans up 25.

Monday’s crop conditions and buildup to Friday’s report are moving the markets higher again this morning. Friday the WASDE will release their Supply and Demand estimates for the month. Part of this release will be an update on yield and potentially an acreage update (in 3 states).

Crop conditions have impacted the yield estimates submitted by private analysts with the average yield of the analysts 1.1 bu/acre below the USDA’s modeled 177 number in July. The published range is 173.2 to 177.6 bu/acre showing the general pessimism that goes beyond the average. The trade is regularly pessimistic the August USDA’s yield number. This is probably because the improvement in US corn yield potential at a trend level is placing it at new records annually. The hardest thing to do is to forecast a record yield with less-than-optimal weather. Not only is the yield in question but also acreage is up for revision, in three states only.

Next week we will see little rain fall around the Central US.  The ridge is moving up into the Northwest.  The heat is leaving Texas and will allow for rain to move into the Western Plains.  It’s been bone dry for months and crop conditions are not good.  Looking at the 15-day forecast there are several little pop-up showers in the Central US, but no organized rain events. Those that missed rain are in for a tough August.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are stronger to start the day on decline in crop conditions last night. Currently corn is up 7 and soybeans are up 30.

USDA crop rating were down 3% in corn at 58% good to excellent.  16% of the crop is in the poor to very poor category.  45% of the corn is in the dough stage, suggesting weekend rains will have less effect to improve yield.  National corn yield should be closer to 170 bushels per acre.  Kansas corn is rated 26% points lower than the 5 year average at only 30% good to excellent. Texas corn is struggling at only 17% good to excellent compared to 63% last year and a 5 year average of 54%.
Two more grain ships have left the Ukraine now amounting to 12 total ships that have left.  There is a 3 mile safety zone set up for ships to leave.

More rain is forecast to fall in the Eastern US in the next 10 days.  Parts of Iowa, Missouri and Nebraska will see limited rainfall over the same period.  Temps back off a bit and there is another cool front coming.  The ridge has moved out West leaving some heat in the Plains, but nothing like it was.  The 72 hour rain totals had most crop areas receiving rain.  About a third of Iowa was short-changed as was Missouri and Nebraska.  The heat out West is going to have an impact on yield.

I don’t think prices are going to move very far in either direction right now.  We had rain on the radar and didn’t take the markets that much lower yesterday. Corn priced around 6 dollars is close to insurance prices from the Spring.  I don’t think the USDA moves the needle very far on Friday, even though I think the national yield should be lower.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Yesterday’s selloff continues this morning with corn down 9 and soybeans down 12.

In news out of the Ukraine, the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain to world markets since Russia’s invasion blocked exports more than five months ago is on track to safely arrive in Istanbul on Tuesday night, Turkey said, amid Ukrainian fears it could still run into problems.  Turkey expects roughly one grain ship to leave Ukrainian ports each day as long as the safe passage agreement holds, a senior Turkish official, who asked to remain anonymous, said on Tuesday.

Last night’s corn condition ratings were steady this week at 61% good/excellent, still down from 64% last year and the 65% five-year average pace; corn silking and doughing remained behind their respective paces at 80% and 26%, respectively. Soybean ratings rose a point to 60% g/ex, even with last year but below the 63% 5YA; blooming and pod-setting also stayed behind their metrics at 79% and 44%, respectively.

Brazil yesterday raised their 2021/22 second-crop corn output estimate from 90.7 to almost 93.0 MMT, up from 59.2 MMT last year. The initial 2022/23 soybean crop estimate came in at a record 152.6 MMT, up almost 20% from last year due to nearly a 4% increase in plantings and a sharp rise in national yields. ‘22/23 exports are seen at an even 100 MMT, up from 77 MMT in ‘21/22. First-crop corn was pegged at 30.3 MMT, up almost 15% from last year despite a small loss in planting acreage this coming season. Total corn output this year is pegged at 125.5 MMT, vs 121.6 MMT this year.

The 10-day forecast is a mix of what we saw with the GFS and EU models yesterday.  Some light rain is forecast to pop up in Iowa and heavier amounts are forecast in the Southeast.  Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio could get up to an inch in the next week.  Hot temps are moving into the Plains where moisture will be limited.  The forecast is not as bearish this morning as the two maps that were put out yesterday.  There is still some rain on the radar, but Iowa, Nebraska and Western Minnesota have been short on rain for the last month.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com