Good morning,

Weaker corn markets this morning as corn is down 10 in old crop and 5 new crop.

Yesterdays USDA report was a snoozer in my opinion as there was nothing exciting to move the markets. Previously the USDA has used the outlook forum yields in this report and yesterday they did not.  The big surprise was using 177 bushels for corn instead of the forum at 181.  They used last year’s final yields for corn and beans at 177 and 51.5.  This brought the carryout down, otherwise we would have been looking at hefty numbers.   The other stuff was mostly in line with average estimates.
Below are the estimates released.

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (billion bu)

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bu)

It looks like spring wheat is headed towards prevent plant when you look at the forecast.  Some of these acres will be canola and some soybeans.  After last year’s shortfall of a crop this was not what we wanted.  A lot of time highs or lows are made on crop reports and prices return to where they were before the report in the next week.  This probably will be the case here again for corn, beans and Chicago wheat.

HBD

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Stronger markets to start the day with corn up 14 and soybeans up 20.

The crop report is out tomorrow, and many expect to see bullish for old crop corn and beans.  The acres will be input in the 2022 balance sheet which will show a heavier ratio of beans planted, which will produce a larger US carryout.  The corn carryout is expected to be bullish and probably something close to this year’s.  We probably peak out corn and wheat either on or ahead of this report.  I don’t think we see something so different that it would be market changing.  The market is already high and holding its range, which it will probably do for the foreseeable future as we have a very important US growing season to get through.

The 10-day forecast for US weather is wet for the Dakota’s and Canadian Prairies.  The high-pressure ridge has formed out West pushing moisture up into the Northern Plains.  This high-pressure ridge is intense but will ease off into next week.  Looking at the next 15 days there are only isolated storms popping up across the Midwest.  There is no real organized rain system for all of it.  Planting will progress and it looks like we will see only minor disruption.  It looks like next week there will be a good chance to plant spring wheat as well.  We are late planting but that can change quickly in the next 10 days.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Weaker markets to open the day with corn down 2 and soybeans down 4 while wheat is up 25.

The lead headline this morning are the increased sanctions by the EU against Russia.  The EU has proposed and phased oil embargo against Russia.  The EU would phase out Russian supplies within the next 6 months and refined products by the end of 2022.  The EU has yet to target Russian natural gas, used to heat homes and generate electricity across the bloc.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to raise interest rates by half of a percentage point and announce the start of reductions to its $9 trillion balance sheet as U.S. central bankers intensify efforts to bring down high inflation.

Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA yesterday reported the 2022 spring planting campaign at 31% complete, or 4.7 million hectares (11.6 mln acres); the planned 11.45 mln ha (28.3 mln ac) would be 3.5-4.0 mln ha less than last season. Corn planting stands at 1.27 mln ha out of 3.9 mln ha expected.
The 7 day forecast for US weather is finally a little less wet than its been.  Some holes are opening up in the weather pattern and the rain to the North looks much lighter overall.  The 10 day forecast is still wet and only some areas will see heavy rain.  The extended model dries out a bit as well in the 11-15 day.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Weaker markets to start the week with corn down 14 and soybeans down 32.

The Fed is meeting this week and they will be raising interest rates again.  The rise is expected to be at least .5 points.  Most commodity, metals and energies are lower off the rate hike.

Crop progress is expected to be in the 18-20% completed percentage for corn plantings and 15-17% for soybeans. Spring wheat should be in the 20% range as slow planting has affected progress. Overall, we are about half of what we had planted on this date last year.  Some are saying Hard wheat ratings will be lower, but at some point, they have to start heading higher as it has been raining.

We are trading lower ahead of the Fed meeting, but there isn’t anything bearish going on here today.  Crop planting will be difficult, and the Ukraine gets worse by the day.  These stories have been in the market and will keep it supported.  All markets are high and look to stay that way until something bigger changes.  A switch to warmer and drier on the models would set up a larger correction if this crop can get planted.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

Ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Turnaround Tuesday! Corn is up 6, soybeans up 12 and wheat is up 30 to start the day.

Wheat is leading prices higher after the loss in ratings.  Planting is delayed as well; in a year we cannot afford poor yields or any loss of acres to prevent plant. Wheat ratings dropped another 3 points yesterday and now sit at 27% good to excellent.  These are some of the worst ratings on record for wheat, with Kansas ratings down 7% to 26% good to excellent.

National corn planting progress came in at 7% complete as of Sunday night, up from 4% last week but behind 16% last year and the 15% 5-year average pace; initial emergence reporting came in at 2%, behind 3% both last year and on average. Soybean planting rose from 1% to 3% this week, behind 7% LY and the 8% 5YA, with spring wheat planting advancing from 8% to 13% this week, behind 27% LY and the 15% 5YA pace.

The limits and the CBOT will expand next Monday from 35 cents in corn to 50 cents, from 90 cents in beans to 1.15 and wheat will be lowered from 85 cents down to 70 cents.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com