Good morning,

Markets opened mixed this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans up 6.

We are seeing some strength/support in the bean markets with weather concerns in southern Brazil and Argentina as they have limited if any rainfall over the next two weeks. Rumors of Argentina limiting export for corn continue to be discussed by their government. Roughly 10% of Argentina’s crop is stressed with 86-87% of the corn and soybean crop rated in the Good/Excellent category. The area under stress is expected to expand to at least 40% in the next two weeks in Argentina with no rain.

March futures continue to push the $5.95 level but so far have failed to close above it. We have been in a slight upward trend as the March futures have had a higher close in 9 of the last 13 trading sessions.

Spreads on the CBOT continue to disappear as the funds continue to buy the front months due to volume and liquidity. We have also seen basis levels widen over the past several weeks well into the summer months as end users continue to get covered up in the front months. Several end users across the Midwest have pulled bids until May/June timeframe as producers lock in sales.

I do not look for the markets to do a lot this week with them being closed on Friday and limited participants as the week rolls along due to holiday travel.

Reminder that there will be no markets on Friday December 24^th.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 7 to start this Friday off.

In yesterday’s Supply and Demand Report, the USDA made no adjustments for corn and beans, while they increased the wheat carryout by 20 million bushels. They might as well have taken this one off as they hardly did anything anyway.

A Reuters report cited “trade sources” saying China has made large purchases of feed grains from Ukraine, France, and Australia in the past week; French wheat purchases totaled 600k mt for Jan-March, while barley purchases were estimated at 14 vessels combined from France and Ukraine. China also reportedly bought ten or more cargoes of corn from Ukraine for Jan/April, with some estimating those purchases ranging up to a million tonnes.  China has bought over 1.25 mmt of Aussie wheat in the last two weeks.

$5.50-$6 corn is going to continue to make it difficult for the US to compete in the Chinese export market. We are at a disadvantage logistically to both the Ukraine and South America on top of these current price levels. Our export business is going to be reliant on Canada and Mexico for the majority of the year. Canada is estimated to be more than 50% covered on what they need to buy so the story on this market may die quicker than we hope.

I would advise producers to get sales and firm offers on the books with end users ASAP. We are coming off the second largest harvest on record and do not expect to see the demand pop up like last year. There may be room to move slightly higher, but unlike 2021 we are starting off at $5.90-$6.00 cbot levels compared to $4 last year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are all over the board this morning with traders moving ahead of the 11am report. Corn is currently up 3 and soybeans are down 6.

The USDA Crop Report is out today at 11:00 Central.  Only minor adjustments are expected as this report has little bearing on the markets.  South American production doesn’t move very far this early and those crop sizes are expected to be unchanged.  Traders are looking for a small reduction in bean and wheat exports, with an increase in the corn grind from ethanol.
Total U.S. ethanol fuel production rebounded to 1.090 million barrels per day on the seven days ending December 3rd, up from 1.035 mln bpd the week prior, and 991k bpd on the comparable week last year. Cumulative output since Sept 1 continues to rise, now up to an average of 1.023 mln bpd; if that number keeps up with previous seasons (and ‘19/20 pre-pandemic) to hit even 1.040 mln bpd by the end of Aug, that would indicate corn use for ethanol around the 5.5 bln bu mark—250 million bu above the current USDA est.
Here are todays trade estimates:

USDA 2021/22 US Grain Ending Stocks (million bu)

USDA 2021/22 World Grain Ending Stocks(million tonnes)

Check back after 11am for updated numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 1 to start the day.

The USDA Crop Report is out tomorrow at 11:00 Central. Only minor adjustments are expected as this report has little bearing on the markets. South American production doesn’t move very far this early and those crop sizes are expected to be unchanged. Traders are looking for a small reduction in bean and wheat exports, with an increase in the corn grind from ethanol.

The December Trade Report showed US soybean exports for October at 386 million bushels.  This is 42 million below last year’s record large sales and the second highest of all time. November is expected to be similar, with also the second largest sales of all time. China is behind 180 million bushels due to the September shutdown at the US Gulf. Overall sales are probably only down 240 million bushels from year to year, with many months to bridge some of that gap.

The U.S. EPA will reportedly reduce biofuel mandates, aiding refiners hit by the pandemic; annual ethanol mandates will go to 12.6 billion gallons for 2020, 13.8 billion for 2021, and 15.0 billion for 2022 (back to originally – mandated levels). The rejection of a significant number of small refinery exemptions is also expected by the EPA. The Biden Administration did announce $700 million in COVID-related biofuel industry grants at the same time, along with $100 million in biofuel infrastructure aid.

The forecast for South American weather looks unchanged. Northern Brazil will have chances for 2-5 inches of rain this week. Southern Brazil and Northern Argentina will be largely dry of the coming 10-15 days. Southern Argentina is expected to see .1-1.25 inches into Friday. Temps in Northern Brazil are normal and temps in Argentina are above normal.

Look for quiet markets today as traders will focus on the EPA announcement and tomorrows USDA report.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com