August 9, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is down 4 and soybeans are up 4 to start the week.
Favorable rainfall across the belt over the weekend with more in the forecast should keep the markets flat heading into Thursday’s USDA report.
On Thursday the USDA will release their August WASDE report which will feature the first actual estimates of this year’s crops. While some changes are possible, I wouldn’t be surprised if they leave the 2020-21 balance sheet unchanged. Most traders do expect them to adjust the 2021/22 production numbers by lowering yield estimates. The average estimates for corn yield are 177.6 bu/acre compared to 179.5 in July. Soybeans are estimated at 50.4 bu/acre compared to 50.8 in July. While lower, the 177.6 would be a new record yield which will make demand the market driver.
Crop conditions will be out later today, and the trade is expecting a steady to lower G/E number by 2-3%. While the G/E numbers could fall, the percent in dough stage is well ahead of normal which will put pressure on old crop prices.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 6, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are quiet this morning with corn unchanged and soybeans up 5. As we roll along thru summer, the traders have been fairly quiet, and the markets have become rangebound. I would expect this will continue leading up to next Thursdays USDA Crop Production and WASDE report. I would expect volatility to continue post report as the markets learn more about the potential crop yields and try to predict where things will end up.
Certain areas of the country are seeing basis levels strengthen while others are seeing weakness as end users get covered. Locally things are starting to weaken as the crop matures and harvest appears that it could start 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. I would advise anyone holding old crop corn to get it sold in the cash market or get a basis contract in place. Carrying old corn into new crop is between $..70-1.00 discount.
As for the weather, not much has changed in the forecasts today. Models agree and call for above average temps and below average rainfall for much of the country’s growing region for the next two weeks.
Have a Safe weekend.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 4, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is down 3 and soybeans are up 3 this morning.
The 10-day forecast has some chances for rain in the coming week. Rain chances start around August 8th. The 7 day is where most of this activity happens and then there isn’t much more to the end of the models this morning. The EU has Northern Illinois getting pretty good amounts, while the GFS has very little and most of the rain falling in Wisconsin. Iowa will see spotty rains over the weekend. The high-pressure Ridge builds moving East pushing moisture up into the Northern Midwest. The Ridge softens on about August 15th and slips South and West.
There is an article by Reuters today about China and commodity prices. China is trying to lower commodity prices by restricting credit, discouraging buying and tightening regulation. (Reuters)
China’s cabinet called the soaring prices “unreasonable” at a May 19 meeting, saying it would strengthen its management of commodity supply. It called for a crackdown on “malicious trading” and urged coal producers to raise output. Beijing’s chief planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) followed up with two separate probes into the coal and iron ore markets, while China’s secretive strategic stockpiler, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, announced rare sales of key metals aimed at plugging supply gaps and cooling prices. (Reuters)
Yesterday StoneX (private firm) estimated the 2021 corn crop at 176.9 bpa and 50.0 bpa in beans. These yields are a little lower than what many in the trade thought Stone would come out with. They don’t think the crop is getting bigger at this point, but the USDA may have something to say about that next Thursday.
We will continue to see a two-side trade today for corn, beans and wheat. We may go on this way for a while with the USDA coming out with a report next Thursday.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 3, 2021
Good morning,
Weaker markets overnight with corn down 5 and soybeans down 25 following last nights crop ratings surprise. Weakness in the soybean markets pulled corn and wheat lower overnight.
Traders were looking for a drop in national crop ratings yesterday afternoon in corn and soybeans but didn’t get the drop in soybeans. While corn came in 2% lower at 62% G/E, Soybeans increased 2% to 60% G/E. The Dakotas and MN remain the only states that are dramatically low in crop ratings as they have been all season. Higher ratings in in the eastern states is going to make it difficult to run this market higher unless yields come in much lower than expected.
Forecasts bring back some northern corn belt rains this coming weekend and into the 6–10-day time frame. These rains will give the soybeans and corn a better chance to salvage decent yields especially in the Dakotas and Minnesota acres.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 2, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is up 4 and soybeans are down 4 to start the day.
Last Friday’s selloff was mainly attributed to profit taking at week and month end for traders. July came to an end as old and new crop futures both lost ground during the month. September futures were down 52 cents and December futures were down 43 cents for the month. Just enough rain and favorable weather forecasts continued to drag the markets lower.
Harvest has begun in the deep south and will work its way north in the coming weeks. Locally producers are reporting crops that are 1-2 weeks ahead of normal which should result in some late September or early October harvest. This will continue to pressure the local cash prices as end users widen basis moving forward.
There continues to be rain in the forecast for the 7–10-day models moving forward. This should keep the markets in check if realized. Crop conditions are expected to come in unchanged to a couple percent lower in this afternoon’s report.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
