July 23, 2021
Good Morning,
Markets are lower again this morning with corn and soybeans both down 7.
We have seen subdued trade as the traders bounce on every weather update. The GFS model continues to hold the Ridge over the Central Midwest into the first week of August while the EU model has the Ridge sliding south and west allowing for more normal conditions into the first week of August.
USDA releases updated Cattle on Feed data this afternoon. The country’s cattle inventory, which started the year out on a high note on steady consumer demand amid the pandemic, is likely going to begin to shrink as pastures in the West and Upper Midwest are rendered unfit for cattle due to drought conditions and sky-high grain prices put the squeeze on cattle producers’ profit margins.
China has been absent in the market for US new crop beans. China remains the short in the World as South American stocks already look to be close to sold out. China has almost zero coverage in new crop beans in the US and you can bet that a very large import program could start at any time. The futures prices are 4-5 dollars more than a year ago, and these purchases are not getting forward booked because of the price risk and uncertainty of the US crop. They may end up making spot purchases from harvest through January instead of the all the pre-booked grain they set for delivery last year. This will eventually set up a very bullish dynamic for new crop beans, which are forecast to have a 155 million bushel carryout for next year.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 22, 2021
Good Morning,
Softer markets to open the day with corn down 9 and soybeans down 30.
The markets are reacting to a wetter forecast coming from the European model for the August 4-9th timeframe. The GFS model continues to hold a drier trend for the same period and the conditions leading up to this potential rain event could be detrimental to yields. The models disagree this morning for rain coming at the back end of the 11–15-day forecast. The EU forecast which is released after settlement started the markets lower from the onset of the overnight trade. The GFS doesn’t follow this solution and has little rain for the next 15 days.
The 10-day forecast by the EU is not very wet, but does have rain chances for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This is probably adding to the break. Extreme heat will come to the US over the next 7 days and will be the hottest temps of the Summer. We have seen this before; the market breaks just as the heat is about to show up driving weak longs out. These weather markets can be nasty, and we don’t trade up or down a nickel anymore.
USDA export sales are out, and they have the US selling 473,200 mt of wheat, 88,500 mt of old corn, 1,003,500 mt of new corn, 62,000 mt old beans, and 176,300 mt of new beans. China has almost no coverage of new crop beans but did add 526,000 mt of new corn.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 19, 2021
Good morning,
Corn opened sharply higher overnight and this morning but has sold off and is now up 2 in corn and down 9 in soybeans. Weather may be the major market mover long term, but issues with China are coming to the surface and may cause concern over long term exports.
The United States and a coalition of allies on Monday accused China’s Ministry of State Security of a global cyber hacking campaign, specifically attributing a large Microsoft attack disclosed earlier this year to hackers working on Beijing’s behalf. A U.S. senior administration official told reporters ahead of the announcement. “The United States and our allies and partners are exposing further details of the PRC’s (People’s Republic of China’s) pattern of malicious cyber activities and taking further action to counter it.”
The forecast over the next week has little rain for most of the crop area in the US. Furthermore, the Western plains have almost nothing in the forecast for the next two weeks. Temps are going to rise this week in the West getting up into the 100-110’s. The Eastern US will not be as hot and peak out in the 90’s. The Ridge that is setting up is in the same area forecast on Friday and the intensity is still there today. This forecast is bullish as the Western crop is going to feel the heat. Crop rating are expected to gain for corn and beans by about a point this afternoon, but this forecast is going to turn them back lower over the next two weeks. The forecast for the East is not really all that bad, if another round of storms were to show up, where temps will be normal for summer weather.
The weather is bullish enough that we should be higher, but this business with China is currently holding the markets back.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 16, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 3 and soybeans up 14.
The forecast for this morning has a lot less rain in it than has been advertised over the past couple days. The Eastern Belt and the far South see most of the rain in the next 10 days. Rains will be totally absent in Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakota’s and farther West. This is the wrong time for this to happen and could start to shrink the crop. Heat is the bigger concern as its going to get hot out West. Crops usually see good weather on the outer edges of Domes, and in this case that’s Illinois and East.
Ridges make rallies in the summer markets, and it is a hot one out West. We may not keep all this rally today as there is risk going into a weekend and weather changes for the Sunday trade. The markets have become dangerous with the increased volatility, where you can move corn 40 cents and soybeans a dollar on any given day. We do still have some gaps in corn and soybeans that could be filled on the CBOT.
Weather-related problems with Brazil’s second corn crop have sparked a spate of companies exiting their contracts on washout clauses, causing what some traders described as potentially the biggest wave of export cancellations for the world’s No. 2 supplier in five years. According to grain traders and brokers who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, a lot of the corn earmarked for exports is being redirected to the domestic market as premiums are attractive due to shortfalls after the crop was hit by drought and an ill-timed frost. Brazil has replaced some of these cancellations with Argentina corn as well.
Have a Safe weekend!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 15, 2021
Good Morning,
Corn is down 6 and soybeans are down 8 to start the day with favorable weather and rainfall over the last 24 hours.
The weather forecast is mostly the same as yesterday with rains moving into the Central US. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will get the majority of the precip in coming days. After the rains over the next two days there isn’t much storm activity until about next Thursday/Friday. Totals and amounts are going to be hit or miss for the 15 day forecast.
The market is still working on cleaning up the charts from the gaps left from the Tuesday after the 4th of July. We are close in corn, but still need to get up to 5.735. I don’t think we get this done this week based on weather trade, but could make a run at it next week with warmer temperatures.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
