Good morning,

This morning corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 18 to start the day.

The initial response to yesterday’s report was very bullish as futures traded 30+ higher for a while, but eventually settled 14 higher. The report was bullish, but with traders holding long positions heading into the report it made closing significantly higher a challenge. The USDA lowered yield by 5 bpa in yesterdays report which was the shock that moved the market. Their July estimate had corn at 179.5 bpa which most felt was too high. In yesterdays report they pegged it at 174.6 bpa which most now feel is too low. I would expect this year’s crop comes in closer to 177-178 range when we get the final numbers in January. This should keep pressure on the markets and prevent new crop from running significantly higher in the next couple months.

The FSA yield data was released yesterday afternoon and there were more corn acres reported. If the USDA would adjust their number and follow the FSA(which is the actual planted acres), we could see 500,000 to 1.0 million more corn acres as there was very little prevent plant noted. This could dramatically shift the balance sheet and increase carryout by 85-175 million bushels.

Old crop basis levels have plummeted across the country as end users become covered. As I stated yesterday, anyone holding old crop corn should get things moved ASAP.

Here are yesterday’s USDA numbers:

2021/22 USDA Yield (Bu/acre)

2021/22 USDA Production (bln bu)

2020/21 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

2021/22 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

We have opened the day weaker as traders’ position for the 11am report. Corn is currently down 5 and soybeans are down 12.

The USDA will release their August WASDE report at 11am this morning. Estimates are listed below. The FSA will also be reporting acres and program participation on their website at 12 today.

2021/22 USDA Yield (Bu/acre)

2021/22 USDA Production (bln bu)

2020/21 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

2021/22 USDA Carryout (bln bu)

We have no idea what the USDA will do as far as yields go today.  They did not go out into the fields for this Report; surveys and satellite imagery were used to estimate yields. (Personally I think this technology may be more accurate than actual field checks because it covers the whole field.)  If heat figures into their models at all, the yield trend should be down today.  They may not move the needle very far and take a wait and see approach with actual field results.

Tropical Storm Fred is expected to make landfall in Florida this weekend.  The models are inflating a little with some more rainfall into the Midwest this morning.  The lower Midwest has some heavier totals showing up into the Dakota’s and Canada.  It’s still going to be hot out West, but most of it is out beyond Iowa and Illinois.

Basis levels on old crop corn have been crumbling the last few days as end users are covered and new crop is on the doorstep. Anyone that is sitting on old crop corn may have missed the boat on great prices but can and should take advantage of prices that may still have a 6 in front of them before they are gone.

Check back after 11 for today’s numbers.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn opened 3 lower and soybeans 7 higher to start the day.

US corn ratings increased 2 pct to 64 G/E. The rating surprised the market, where trade analysts were estimating an average weekly rating of 62% for the week with a range of 59% – 64%. The ratings boost was welcome news for farmers as crops continue peak maturation development. Soybeans conditions stabilized at 60% G/E for a second straight week in yesterday’s Crop Progress report, which was in line with analyst expectations.
Storms moved through the US yesterday and will continue to do so today.  The 10-day forecast by the EU has most of the rain falling in the next 48 hours.  Illinois and East look to be the benefactors of the rain event as the West is primarily dry.  A tropical storm is heading into Florida, which is impacting weather models this morning.  There is enough rain on the radar to hold markets back, but we are not falling apart either.

December corn has been trading around 5.50 for the better part of a month.  I think producers should be making sales at these levels as they are very good prices. There are so many unknowns in the market that you always have to worry at least a little about losing your market when its good.  Covid, the USDA or something that we are not even expecting could always knock it off its block.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 4 and soybeans are up 4 to start the week.

Favorable rainfall across the belt over the weekend with more in the forecast should keep the markets flat heading into Thursday’s USDA report.

On Thursday the USDA will release their August WASDE report which will feature the first actual estimates of this year’s crops. While some changes are possible, I wouldn’t be surprised if they leave the 2020-21 balance sheet unchanged. Most traders do expect them to adjust the 2021/22 production numbers by lowering yield estimates. The average estimates for corn yield are 177.6 bu/acre compared to 179.5 in July. Soybeans are estimated at 50.4 bu/acre compared to 50.8 in July. While lower, the 177.6 would be a new record yield which will make demand the market driver.

Crop conditions will be out later today, and the trade is expecting a steady to lower G/E number by 2-3%. While the G/E numbers could fall, the percent in dough stage is well ahead of normal which will put pressure on old crop prices.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are quiet this morning with corn unchanged and soybeans up 5. As we roll along thru summer, the traders have been fairly quiet, and the markets have become rangebound. I would expect this will continue leading up to next Thursdays USDA Crop Production and WASDE report. I would expect volatility to continue post report as the markets learn more about the potential crop yields and try to predict where things will end up.

Certain areas of the country are seeing basis levels strengthen while others are seeing weakness as end users get covered. Locally things are starting to weaken as the crop matures and harvest appears that it could start 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. I would advise anyone holding old crop corn to get it sold in the cash market or get a basis contract in place. Carrying old corn into new crop is between $..70-1.00 discount.

As for the weather, not much has changed in the forecasts today.  Models agree and call for above average temps and below average rainfall for much of the country’s growing region for the next two weeks.

Have a Safe weekend.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com