Good Morning,

Markets are down 3 in corn and unchanged in soybeans this morning after trading as much as 10 lower overnight.

Corn prices rebounded yesterday, while beans and wheat traded both sides of unchanged. The technical traders are indicating the lows early this week could be the bottom on old crop corn moving thru the summer while soybeans and wheat may set new lows. Currently I believe the lows in old crop corn that were placed on Monday and new crop corn that were placed on Wednesday could be the lows for the short term. This is all provided we don’t see some old crop cancelations from the Chinese buyers which is becoming more and more a possibility.
End users in the south and east including chicken giant Perdue Farms have already purchased the most Brazilian soybeans since 2014, when huge sales to China forced the U.S. to boost imports. Brazil has also sold a large amount of the oilseed to Mexico, which usually secures supply from its North American neighbor. Brazil is scheduled to ship 150,000 to 180,000 metric tons of soybeans to the U.S. this year, with poultry and livestock producers in the southeastern U.S. taking advantage of the lower prices in the world’s top exporter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Mexico has also bought more than 700,000 tons and is close to surpassing last year’s record.
The 10 day forecast for US weather has active storm systems over most of the Central Belt. There are spotty rains forecast out into next Wednesday. After that there are am active combination of systems moving around the Midwest into June 3rd. Thursday, Friday and Saturday have the biggest chances a week out and then the heaviest chances are Monday Tuesday. The near term forecast is mostly dry which will allow planting to finish up. We don’t see much rain for the Dakota’s, but overall the weather is pretty bearish. Temps will also warm up and should push emergence.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 9 and soybeans are down 4 to start the day.

Corn planting progress was reported at 80% complete vs 67% last week, and 78% a year ago. Corn emerged 41% vs 20% last week, and 40% a year ago. WI came in at 78% complete which is up 29% from last week. Soybeans planted was 61% vs 42% last week, and 51% a year ago. Soybeans emerged 20% vs 10% last week, and 16% a year ago. WI came in at 63% complete compared to 34% last week and 29% on average.
The USDA confirmed the sake of another 53.5 million bushels of new crop corn to China this morning as buyers continue to take advantage of the recent price break. This brings total new-crop corn purchases to China to roughly 320 million bushels. We have seen the focused buying of corn switch from old to new crop over the last couple weeks and I believe this trend will continue. What is currently unknown is whether or not these purchases are new or just the roll of old crop to new crop sales. If the later is the case, we could be in for a major board adjustment lower in the coming months.

The market will try to bounce today after hitting the skids since the crop report. This may take a few days to form a low as the US weather is against it.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are started out slightly higher this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 10, but have since fallen with corn trading 2 lower and soybeans only up 4.
Last week we saw a dramatic selloff in the markets with old corn losing 87 cents on the week while new crop was down 94 cents on the week. Last weeks neutral to bearish report coupled with favorable planting progress and weather had the funds exiting their long positions. The funds ended the week long 215,000 contracts after selling off 115,000.
The southern third of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop should see showers provide some drought relief by the end of this week. The rains are coming in the late pollination period which should help curb production losses.

Weather in the US remains the key negative for the markets as gulf storms allow moisture to stream north. Things are off to a very good start with the US in both planting progress and weather. This afternoon’s crop progress should show corn 85%+ planted for the majority of the corn belt.
We are a long ways from having this crop in the bin, but producers should be actively making sales for new crop at prices that are very profitable. Most would agree that this market is significantly over priced and last weeks selloff is a reminder of how quick this could be gone. I would recommend being 50% sold on new crop corn.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are continuing the slide this morning with corn down 20 and soybeans down 25.

Yesterdays WASDE report put the 2020/21 ending stocks near estimates with corn at 1.257 bln bu, soybeans at 120 mln bu and wheat at 872 mln bu. The 2021/22 ending stocks had corn at 1.507 bln bu, soybeans at 140 mln bu and wheat at 774 mln bu. The USDA cut exports in corn by 305 mln bu and soybeans by 205 mln bu for the 2021/22 year.
Yesterdays report had corn acres for 2021/22 at 91.1 mln planted acres and soybeans at 87.6 mln acres. Expectations are that the June report will show more corn and more soybean acres due to the price run we have seen in the last 30 days. The expectation for more acres and a current carryout of 1.25 are both going to put pressure on the corn market moving forward and could make it difficult for us to test last Fridays highs.
Additional bearish news could develop due to a bridge on Interstate 40 that connects Arkansas and Tennessee. This bridge spans over the Mississippi River near Memphis. This bridge was closed Tuesday after a crack was found during a routine inspection. All river traffic was also halted beginning on Tuesday as officials inspect the bridge and make plans for repairs. It wasn’t known how long the bridge or river traffic will be shut down or what will exactly be done to repair it. The could impact the market as barges of grain will not be able to flow south to the ports while this bridge is closed. This could possibly lead to the US canceling or postponing exports. More to come on this!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Mixed markets to open the day with old corn up 3 and new corn down 5. Soybeans are currently up 25. Today’s focus will be on the USDA S&D report that will be released at 11:00am. Estimates are listed below.

2020/21 US Ending Stocks (million bu)
May 12th Average Est. April
Corn 1.257 1.269 1.352
Soybeans 120 116 120
Wheat 872 844 852

2021/22 US Ending Stocks (million bu)
May 12th Average Est. April
Corn 1.507 1.360 N/A
Soybeans 140 138 N/A
Wheat 774 743 N/A

Continued dryness in Brazil plus surging vegetable oil prices have the soybean markets running higher the last few days. Add in the fact that the corn to soybean price ratio has gone from 2.63 back in March to 2.28 heading into this week. It looks like soybeans feel they have given enough ground and need to rally for acres, but is it too late?
Brazil lowered their estimate for the safrinha corn crop to 79.8 MMT from 82.6 MMT previously, but still remains above last years 75.1 MMT. They slightly raised their estimate for the first corn crop to 24.7 MMT from 24.5 MMT last month as the total corn crop is now estimated at 106.4 MMT compared to 102.6 MMT last year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com