Good Morning,

Markets are working higher this morning after yesterday’s big selloff. Corn is currently up 15 in the old crop and 6 in the new crop. Soybeans are up 26 in old crop and 17 in new crop.

Yesterday’s crop progress shoed another very active week across the heart of the corn belt with 67% of the nation planted vs. 46% last week and 52% for the five-year average. IA led the way with 86% complete with MN right behind at 85% and IL at 74%. All of these are ahead of the five-year average and significant jumps from last week. WI came in at 49% complete compared to 27% last week and 55% last year.

Reminder that the USDA will release their May S&D report at 11am tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be the first look at the 2021/22 carryout numbers. While this is usually important, I think the world numbers are going to change dramatically by that time. (September 2022) With world prices for commodities trading at the levels they have been for the last few months there will be a lot more acres planted not only in the US next year, but world-wide. I have seen some estimates of 25-50 million more acres. “High Prices cure High Prices”. Producers should be actively looking to make sales on this year and next years crop when possible. $6 fall corn for 2021 and $5.00 for fall 2022 may very well be at the top end of the range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weaker markets overnight as rainfall was a bit better than expected. Forecasts look positive in the US for the crop for now. Weather forecasts for the 7-10 day range are calling for warmer temperatures which are also going to trigger rains which will be favorable for crops. Traders are also expecting good planting progress in this afternoons report with estimates around 75% complete. Overnight corn was down 10 and soybeans were down 7.
On Wednesday the USDA will give us an updated S&D report with expectations for a slight reduction in US stocks from last months report. Estimates are for ending stocks to be around 1.275 billion bushel compared to Aprils report of 1.352 billion. Soybeans are estimated at 117 million bushel compared to 120 million in April. We will also get our first USDA estimate of the 2021/22 carryout on Wednesday. Estimates are for 1.344 billion bushel in corn and 138 million in soybeans.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn was up 6 and soybeans were up 11 to start the day.
US planting is expected to be close to 70% complete for corn and 55% in beans. Overall good planting weather has put the US off to the best start in years. Many in Illinois will be complete with all planting this week. The 10 day forecast has rain coming into the Central US that will aid the early planted crops. Rain totals will be 1-2 inches in most of the Midwest. There will be about 3 different storms moving through most of the growing area over the next 14 days. Temps start to warm up next week. Other than the Dakota’s and Canadian Prairie, the weather looks to be pretty normal for Spring.
South American weather is not normal. This ongoing drought is really going to take a toll on crops. The 10 day forecast is even drier than it was yesterday. There is no rain forecast for Central and Eastern Brazil for the next 10 days, that will put the drought at 9 weeks by next Friday.
Yesterday’s export numbers saw a cancellation of 18.7 million bushels of corn by an unknown buyer. This is thought to be China, which was one of the reasons I think things could turn bearish. China has outstanding commitments of 512.4 million bushels of corn that are scheduled for delivery by Sept 1st. There is some real danger here in the market if we continue to see cancelations. The funds have been long, and will want to keep their longs for the growing season, which I understand, but will be tested if we see cancelations. I think we have gotten off the train and are now riding the bus from the movie Speed. Corn longs will be playing a game of Chicken with US Ethanol plants and potential Chinese cancelations, either of which could cause the bus to slow down and blow up.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is starting the day off 3 lower while soybeans and wheat are up 1 and up 5 respectively. There are rumors that China has purchased 1.5-2.5 mt of corn for new crop and more soybeans out of Brazil. May looks to be a record for exports from Brazil to China.
Export data released by the U.S. Commerce Department yesterday saw March 2021 corn exports rise to 364.5 million bushels, a 122.3-million-bushel increase from the month prior. The monthly haul translated to $2.4 billion for the U.S. food economy and was the highest monthly corn export volume on record since 2008. China edged out Japan as the top destination for U.S. corn in March 2021, snapping up 68.8 million bushels, or 18% of total March 2021 shipments.
Similarly, rapid shipping paces to China of U.S. ethanol led exports of the corn-fed fuel additive to their second highest volumes over the past year. U.S. ethanol exports in March 2021 totaled 133.0 million gallons with 48.3 million of those gallons going to China. Canada was the destination for another 34.2 million gallons.
The market is pushing on higher again with meal, new corn and old bean providing leadership. Wheat is a follower on rallies of which the funds have very little interest in being long. Planting progress will be slowed, but the pace has been good.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 9 and soybeans are up 16 overnight as the markets rebounded from a slight selloff. The markets were all over the place yesterday but we were able to fill some gaps in corn and soybeans and wheat after the open. The higher limits and increase in margins pared back some positions as the risk and cost may be getting too high for many traders.
Last nights crop progress showed 46% of the corn planted compared to 17% last week and 36% on average. Soybean planting was 24% complete versus 8% last week and 11% on average. The US forecast has a lot of rain in it this morning. Most of the totals will be from the Central US on into the South. Rains fall West of the Dakota’s and none is seen in the Canadian Prairies. Planting progress will be slowed until later in the week with wet weather and the droughty conditions are lessening.
This forecast for South America runs out into May 20th. Both the shorter-term and long-term maps have no rain for Central and Eastern Brazil. This will mark week 8 with almost zero precip in the second crop corn area. The forecast is still bullish, as temps warm up too.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com