Good Morning,

The December corn has traded a 50 cent range from Tuesday morning into the early AM. The market was utter chaos after the 8:30 opening bell, and the algo model traders fought mixed signals back and forth throughout the day. Wheat would trade 12 higher 12 lower 12 higher and finally finish down on the Day. Corn held mostly firm with May continuing to punish the shorts into first notice day. The May contract is still higher this morning with one day left ahead of the roll. Things are out of hand, with all kinds of spreading in meal, bean oil, inter-wheat, old and new crop corn and beans. This is the kind of volatility that is outright dangerous to traders.
The 10 day forecast for South America is mostly the same with dry weather in most of Brazil. The change would be some wet weather in the forecast for Argentina. Temps still in the 80’s to 90’s.
The 10 day forecast for US weather has plenty of rain in the majority of the Central to Southern US. The Dakota’s will be the one of the few dry areas in the next two weeks. The Central US could see up to 3 inches or more of rain. Temps look to be relatively normal for spring. US weather is bearish with plenty of rain. This will be the best conditions to start the season for many in the past 2 years.
Look for this to be a really wild day as the funds are long a lot of corn. When the market is down you can find plenty of bearish stories.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are rebounding this morning after selling off at the open. Old crop corn is up 6 while new corn is unchanged. Please note that May futures are trading significantly higher, but that is not the market to watch as End users are now bidding vs. the July board(CN) instead of the May board(CK) due to the approaching first notice day. This has nothing to do with May trading higher, it is a sequence that happens at the end of every contract month.

U.S. Corn planted was 17% (trade estimate was 17%) versus 8% a week ago, 24% last year, and 20% average. U.S. Corn emerged was 3% versus 2% a week ago, 3% last year, and 4% average. U.S. Soybeans planted was 8% (trade estimate was 8%) versus 3% a week ago, 7% last year, and 5% average.

The 10 day forecast for South America is the same dry pattern that has been locked in for 7 weeks now. Temps will be 80’s-90’s, unchanged. The South American forecast is bullish until we see a significant change in the weather.

The 10 day outlook for US weather has rain forecast for almost the entire Midwest. The only area that will be on the short side are the Dakota’s. This is a forecast that drives prices lower, where there is rain, there is no drought today.

I believe this is a good opportunity to make some sales. The markets have had quite a run recently. That momentum appears to be stalling out a bit, and when that occurs, it usually is a good spot to sell a % of your grain.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets opened up limit in corn this morning and 30 higher in soybeans. They have since fallen off those levels but are still very bullish.
The 10 day forecast for Brazil is dry! There is almost no chance for rain of any sort in the Southern half of all Brazil. The dry corn area is getting smoked. The limited rainfall is said to be reducing the crop by at least 20% and would come directly out of exports. The winter crop would be 68-70 mmt and exports would drop to 9-12 mmt. The total crop in Brazil will be lower than 100 mmt. Argentina is likely to raise export taxes as well to slow inflation and bring in more revenue. It already slaps a 33% tax on international soybean exports; 31% on soymeal and soyoil; and 12% on corn and wheat. This is the reason for the sharp rally in July corn futures.
The trade is expecting 18-20% of the corn planted vs the 5 year average of 20%. Spring wheat plantings are expected to be 28-30% vs 24% average and 7-9% of the beans should be planted vs 5% average.
The 10 day forecast for US weather has a fair amount of rain from the Central Grain belt and South. The Northwestern grain belt will see light chances, with the drought holding in place. Temps will really warm up this week hitting 80 degrees locally tomorrow. Temps will be mostly normal for the 10 and 15 day run.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets taking a breather this morning after a wild week of higher trade. Corn is currently down 4 and soybeans are down 7.

Prior to todays pause the markets gained 60 cents in old crop and 40 in new crop. South American weather concerns along with cooler temps early in the week for the US gave the funds the fuel needed to continue the climb. After yesterdays close, the funds are reported to be long a record 540,000 corn futures. They are also long 212,000 soybean and 59,000 wheat contracts. They have added 130,000 contracts to their corn position this week. While this has led to some great opportunities for anyone long corn, it does cause concern in my mind. At some point these firms will want to take profits and trying to guess when and what will trigger the selloff of their positions is impossible. My advice is for producers to continue to make sales (corn, soybeans, wheat) on the way up and not look to hit a homerun on everything.

Daily price limits for Chicago Board of Trade grain and soy futures will expand in May following a routine half-yearly review, CME Group Inc, parent of the exchange, said on Thursday. The new limits go into effect on May 2, for trades dated May 3, CME Group said, potentially increasing volatility. The wider daily limits follow the exchange operator’s move on March 15 to expand speculative position limits, raising the number of CBOT futures contracts that non-commercial traders can hold.  The daily limit for corn would increase from its typical $0.25/bushel to $0.40/bushel for today’s trading session.

CBOT also announced corn futures maintenance margins would increase by $200 to $1,700 for May 2021. Similarly, margin requirements for soybean trades will increase by $475 per contract to $3,825. The Minneapolis Grain Exchange also announced yesterday afternoon it would raise its maintenance margin on spring wheat contracts by $500 to $1,900 per contract for May and July 2021 futures.

The Biden administration hopes to convince farmers to set aside four million more of acres of land for conservation this year by raising payment rates in an environmental program, but farmers said surging crop prices make it a tougher sell. The push to enroll more land into the 36-year-old Conservation Reserve Program is a part of the administration’s campaign to counter climate change.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The climb continues this morning with corn up 12 in the old crop and 8 in the new crop. Soybeans are leading the way trading 30 higher.

Yesterday afternoons planting progress report showed U.S. Corn planted was 8% versus 4% a week ago, 6% last year, and 8% average. IL 12 vs 7, IA 4 vs 2, KY 26 vs 23. U.S. Corn emerged was 2% versus 1% last year, and 1% average.  U.S. Soybeans planted was 3% versus 2% last year, and 2% average.
The 10 day outlook for South America is mostly the same as yesterday.  Wet weather in the far West and dryness in Central and Eastern Brazil.  Temps will be the same 80’s-90’s, which is about normal.  The dry weather pattern is still in place and is going to further deteriorate second crop Brazilian corn.  Brazil is going to allow for duty free imports of corn, soyoil and meal.

The December corn market is starting to get very overbought from a technical standpoint.  We have two major gaps below the market as well. There will be some sort of correction coming in this market sometime, but for now it rolls on higher. Producers should make some new crop sales at current levels for fall delivery with prices in the $5 range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com