Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans down 3 to start the day.

The USDA will release their April supply and demand report at 11:00 this morning. The market is not expecting any surprises today. A major factor to watch is the difference between South American production estimates and the USDAs. Report expectations are below.

USDA 2023/24 Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 223/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

CONAB lowered their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop to 111.0 MMT (million metric tonne) compared to last years 131.9 MMT. This is well below the USDA’s estimate of 124.0 MMT. They left their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop at 155.0 MMT vs. 162.0 last year.

The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentina corn crop to 50.5 MMT citing impacts of a disease that is being spread by leafhoppers. It will be interesting to see if the USDA shows this in their report today.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are quiet to start the day with both corn and soybeans off a ½ cent.

US weather is turning warmer and drier which will aid planting progress across as producers head to the fields. This afternoon planting progress should show minimal progress with last week’s cool and wet weather.

The USDA will be out with an S and D report on Thursday as will CONAB.

These are the early estimates for the crop report.

 USDA 2023/24 Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (million tonnes)

USDA 2023/24 South American Production (million tonnes)

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on Friday cut their 2023/24 Argentine corn production estimate, from 54 to 52 MMT, due to disease damage. 11% of the crop has been harvested thus far. Soybean output was steady at 52.5 MMT, with 2% of that crop harvested.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.como

Good morning,

Markets are softer to start the week with corn down 6, wheat down 8 and soybeans unchanged.

Following last Thursday’s report and the three-day weekend, traders are back in a bearish mood to start the quarter. Last week the USDA reported their producer survey shows the US is planning on 90 million acres of corn vs 94.6 million last year. This was lower than most estimates heading into the report. Soybean acres came in at 86.51 million acres vs 83.60 million last year.

Total principal crop acreage dropped 6.3 million acres from 2023. This is one of the largest losses of all crop acreage without a weather reason. Other large declines have been accompanied by drought, flood, and prevent plant situations. None of these exist today which means the March planting intentions should be the lowest we see for the upcoming crop season.

Thursday’s acreage survey isn’t the final word on US plantings and will most likely change over the next few months. Historically the June survey can show material changes in producer plans due to planting weather or merely changes in the whim of the producer based on prices. The bottom line of the graphs below is that there is enough acreage flexibility in the next 2 months to completely remake the production situation in corn and soybeans.

Last week’s rally following the report was met with a lot of selling old and new crop corn which appears to be a smart move by producers and commercials. Anyone that became bullish following that report needs to keep in mind that we are dealing with ending stocks north of 2 billion bushels.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

It’s finally report day! Corn is unchanged and soybeans are down 7 to start the day. The USDA will release the March 1^st stocks and Prospective planting intentions at 11:00 am today. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

USDA March 1 Stocks (billion bushels)

USDA Prospective Plantings (million acres)

I would advise producers to be making sales and get offers in place for both old and new crop ahead of the report.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Another mixed trade as we start out about the same as we did yesterday, higher wheat and corn and lower beans. Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 4 to start the day.

Private analyst StoneX estimates South American soybean harvest progressed to 65% complete, up 8% vs. last week and in line with average pace. The 1st corn crop is now 52.4% harvested, up about 6% vs. last week and in line with average pace. The 2nd corn crop is now 94% planted, essentially done and ahead of normal pace.

European Union officials said they are preparing to impose tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus, $103.26 per metric tonne; the Kremlin is analyzing details and time frames before issuing a response.

The corn market has popped about 30 cents on a liquidation of about 90k contracts from the managed money crowd. The funds are short 255,000+ contracts which is still a strong short position but is much more manageable than a 340k+ short position they had 3 weeks ago. Using this math, it would take about $1.00 rally to clear out the remaining short position. I would argue the farmer’s length in corn would likely have a bigger impact and not allow that math to ‘work.’

Producers should be actively making old and new crop sales on the recent rally ahead of next Thursdays report.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com