June 11, 2020

Good Morning,

Corn is up 2 while soybeans and wheat are down 2 to ahead of today’s WASDE report that will be released at 11am central time. Estimates are listed below.

2019/20 US Carryout (billion bu.)
USDA June Ave. Est. USDA May
Corn 2.103 2.150 2.098
Soybeans .585 .577 .580
Wheat .983 .979 .978

2020/21 US Carryout (billion bu.)
USDA June Ave. Est. USDA May
Corn 3.323 3.360 3.318
Soybeans .395 .426 .405
Wheat .925 .897 .909

Check back after 11am to today’s numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn down 3 while soybeans and wheat are up 2. Yesterday’s selloff in corn and soybeans was a result of Mondays planting progress and crop conditions report that has traders preparing for large carryouts this year. This will continue to be the story if weather continues to cooperate in the growing region. The past couple days moisture maps show that the tropical storm has been dumping adequate rain with limited areas receiving excessive amounts. Extended forecasts call for 10-14 days of warmer and drier weather followed by more moderate temperatures and rain.
Traders will await tomorrows report and continue to monitor weather updates here and overseas. The expectations for tomorrows report are for slightly increased old crop corn stocks with soybeans and wheat unchanged. I do not expect any changes in the new crop ending stocks as they will wait until the July WASDE to update those numbers to incorporate the June 30th acreage numbers. I also look for the June 30th report to carry more weight and volatility than we typically see.
In a statement yesterday, Goldman Sachs stated they believe commodity prices are too high. They don’t believe current corn and crude prices are sustainable with the loss of global demand and the massive oversupply in the corn market. They forecast corn prices to drop by 7.4% (.25 cents) in the next quarter which would put futures prices at $3.00 for the July contract and $3.15 for the December contract.

Be sure to get some sales made and offers in with your buyers soon!

Have a Great Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower this morning with corn and soybeans down 3 and wheat down 5.
Last night’s planting and crop progress report showed the US corn crop 97% planted and 75% in good to excellent condition. Soybean planting progress came in at 86% planted with 72% of the crop rated in the good to excellent category. Some areas of IL and IN that received heavy rains in May are busy replanting and experiencing erratic stands that will be interesting to watch conditions on over the rest of the summer. Unfortunately these areas are too small to have a bullish impact on the market. With old crop corn carryouts expected to be in the 2.1-2.3 billion bushel range in Thursdays report and this years crop off to a great start for the majority of the US prices will struggle.
The funds have been short over 200,000 contracts for close to a month now as they closed yesterday with an estimated 266,000 short position. Some traders believe we will see some short covering in the coming weeks to set up another selling pattern after we get into mid-July to early August. I do not look for that short covering position unless we get a weather issue in the next couple weeks. I look for the funds to hold on to their short position well thru new crop.
Traders will be monitoring rain totals this week from the Tropical storm that is moving thru the central US. After this remain event there is almost no rain in the forecast for the next 15 days with warmer temperatures. This looks to be ideal for growing conditions.

Producers should be making sales of old and new crop corn ahead of Thursdays report and should be making plans to have significant sales on ahead of the July 4th weekend.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Soybeans and wheat are down two while corn is up 2 this morning.
Corn has made small gains in the past few days, but it’s mostly just been a change in the spread and the position the funds hold. The funds will likely remain short corn unless the weather changes, just not as heavy. Ethanol production is picking up and crude oil has traded to 40 dollars a barrel. Prices don’t need to be at 3.20 vs July, but it’s up the funds at this point.
China’s soybean imports were 9.4 mmts for May, up 2 mmts from last may at 7.4 mmts. China is expected to buy similar amounts in June and July, with much coming from the US. The demand picture for beans is pretty good, as this is the most beans China has ever taking in this time period.
Crop ratings will be out later today, and they are expect to increase again. Corn should come in close to 75% good/excellent and beans should be 72% good/excellent. The USDA should also say that most all of the crop is planted as well. The crop survey on acres for June may actually have a chance of being half right for once due to the weather we have had this spring.
Look for the markets to continue to trade sideways this week heading into the USDA report on Thursday. Thursdays S&D report is not expected to help the markets. If the Funds reduce any of their short position ahead of this report, producers should take advantage of the market gains and make sales of old and new crop corn!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning with corn and soybeans both trading 1 higher.
Short covering may be the market mover to close out the week. I doubt the rally will go very far, but any rally is good news. Corn will have a tough time clearing initially 3.30 and then even more difficult at 3.35 ahead of the crop report that is next Thursday. The market has made a habit of dousing out the corn short covering before the crop report is released. The report next week will be bearish to corn again, with the absence of high ethanol use over the past month.
The weather is going to clear of rain until Tropical storm Cristobal makes landfall on Sunday. Rains will develop in New Orleans of up to 5 inches before moving up Monday and Tuesday into the Central US. Today’s model shows most of the rain covering from south of Kansas City, strait up to Des Moines and directed to Green Bay. The East looks to get less than an inch, where the west central belt can get as much as 2-3 inches, with isolated areas of 5 inches.

The temperature forecast looks a lot warmer for the next 14 days. Temps break down with the tropical storm moving in, but they slowly build back warmer on June 16-18th. This may be the beginning of another high pressure ridge.

Look for prices to remain depressed and trading in the 10-15 cent range we have seen over the last month. Producers should be actively selling cash and new crop corn in the $3-$3.20 range when/if it is obtainable. In my opinion we have 3 weeks for weather to move the markets higher. If we don’t see any major weather issues by the 4th of July the window will close and prices will start to head lower.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com