Good Morning,

Markets are lower this am with corn down 4 and beans down 14.

We are getting off to a rough start this week after comments from President Trump over the weekend indicating that the US will work to diversify its global supply chain away from China. The fear is that the Trump Administration could reissue new tariffs against the Chinese as retaliation for an alleged cover up at the initial stages of the coronavirus breakout.
After all the work that was done on the Phase 1 trade deal, it could all come apart rather easily as it becomes collateral damage. The White House seems to be leading the charge when it comes to finger pointing towards Beijing to accept responsibility for the COVID-19 outbreak.
Weather outlook for the next couple weeks looks like it holds below normal rain for the next couple of weeks. This will be particularly welcome to farmers in the ECB. Temperatures will still be on the cool side for the balance of this week before things warm up next week.
This afternoons planting progress should show US corn at or above 50% complete after last weeks favorable weather.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower to start the month with corn down 3, beans down 6 and wheat down 7.
The markets had a good rally yesterday which is common theme the day after the May roll. Many contracts were liquidated out in the last weed.
President Trump in recent days has told aides that China has to pay for the outbreak and publicly floated demanding billions of in compensation. It has been discussed that China could be stripped of sovereign immunity and enabling the US government and victims the ability to sue for damages. Tariffs again were brought up as is the standard weapon of the President. The chances of getting China to pay compensation for the virus are closer to zero to none.
The weather for the next 14 days looks very normal. There were be instances of light rain here and there, temps will ride a roller coaster of warm, cold, warm. Planting progress does not look to be a problem this year. Corn planting by Monday can be close to 50% and beans at 20%.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Last night’s planting progress showed US corn at 27% complete vs. 7% a week ago and 20% on the five year average. The major corn growing states all came in well above average and are as follows:

Iowa 39% complete 20% average
Illinois 37% complete 31% average
Nebraska 20% complete 16% average
Minnesota 40% complete 19% average
Indiana 18% complete 11% average

Wisconsin came in at 11% complete vs. a five year average for this week of 5%.

Soybean progress was reported at 8% complete compared to 4% on the five year average.

Yesterday’s selloff in corn was tied to planting progress and crude oil. Crude oil values fell $4/barrel to less than $13/barrel. Ethanol demand has been crippled by the drop in crude oil and the decrease in travel by consumers. Several states are revealing their plans to reopen while others are clamping down for another 30 days. Worldwide infections are at 2.98 million. World deaths are now over 206,000. The US’s confirmed number of cases is 966,000 with 48,000 deaths.
Producers need to be moving old crop corn and making new crop sales! Demand destruction in the ethanol industry is not going to come back until consumers get back on the roads. With low crude prices and stocks of ethanol and crude at all-time highs I do not expect to see demand back for another 12+ months. Cash prices for fall corn are currently hovering around $2.90-3.00/bu. Barring any growing issues this spring/summer, these prices will be much better than what we see this fall. My advice is to be pro-active in marketing this year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

After a weekend of favorable weather and lots of activity in the fields across the Midwest, the markets are taking a hit. Corn is currently down 9, soybeans down 4 and wheat down 7.

• Fridays USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all US cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.297 million head, 94.5% of last year. March placements came in at 1.557 million head which is 77% of last year and well below the guess of 79%. Cattle marketed during March were reported at 2.01 million head which is 113% of last year’s numbers.
• Crude oil is down over $5 and trading below $12/bbl again this morning as the nation and world continues to limit travel.
• Planting progress this afternoon is expected to show significant progress across the US, especially in the West. IA, MN, NE, ND, SD, WI all had very favorable weather over the last 7 days for field work. In last week’s progress report IA was 2% complete, but is expected to surpass 50% in this week’s report.

December futures continue to grind lower with the lack of demand and now planting progress and crop size weighing on the market. CZ0 has closed lower ten of the last 14 weeks. CZ0 is currently trading at 3.30 and is projected by many experts to trade sub $3 by the time we get to fall.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans up 10.

The catalyst for the recovery are reports that Chinese interest for US beans and other Ag products is improving. Newswires carried a story that the Chinese intended on making good on their commitments from the Phase 1 trade deal as they look to bolster their state reserves noting that the bulk of the business would come from the US. They did not set a timetable but the reports did note that they would be seeking 20 MMT of corn to go along with 10 MMT of soybeans.
Brazilian soybean exports for April are on pace to surpass the May 2018 record high of 453.7M bu. Brazilian farmers are taking advantage of a weak real and strong export demand and booking significant sales for the 2020/21 marketing year. Growers in Mato Grosso have already sold 82% of their 2019/20 soybean crop and 55% of their corn. In Parana, 54% of this year’s soybean crop is contracted for sale, compared to 35% a year ago.
Brazilian farmers are looking at long-term sales as well, booking 30% of new crop Mato Grosso soybeans. On average, only 4% of the new crop is contracted at this time of year. Growers in Brazil’s largest agricultural state had sold 23% of the 2020/21 corn crop as of late March, which is well over a year from being harvested.
The US EIA released its weekly Petroleum Inventory Status report and despite a 4.5% increase in weekly gasoline demand, ethanol production set yet another record lower week for output, falling a mere 294M gallons per day to 23.6B gallons per day. Weekly ethanol output has dropped more than 45% since states started putting restrictions on movement in an effort to combat the transmission of COVID-19 went into place a little over a month ago.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com