Good Morning,

We saw some strength in the markets yesterday and are taking some of those gains back today. Yesterday’s rally appears to be the same old “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading. Rumors that China may buy corn and soybeans as part of a deal with the US. So far these are only comments and have not been backed with actual purchases. Also aiding yesterday’s rally were comments from President Trump that he is open to extending a March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese products if the two sides are near an agreement. These comments are the strongest indication yet that he is willing to give Beijing more time to firm up a deal to head off the White House’s threat to more than double the rate of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports. By extending the deadline, he could be paving the way for a potential meeting with President Xi to close the deal.
The Ag markets need to get this situation resolved quickly with money managers having moved huge amounts into cash instead. The survey from Bank of America showed that 44% of net allocations to cash reached its highest level since the 2009 financial crisis. With so much money sitting on the sidelines and the funds short, if the trade war with China can be resolved, prices could turn much more favorable.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are slightly higher this morning on news out of Brazil this morning. CONAB(Brazil’s version of the USDA) estimated their corn crop at 91.652 mmt which is up from their January estimate by 460 tmt. They lowered their first crop estimate, but increased the Safrinha estimate due to better weather. While higher, this is still below the USDA’s estimate of 94.5 mmt. CONAB has reduced their soybean estimate by 3.5 mmt to 115.3 mmt due to lower yields. Currently the USDA is projecting 117 mmt for Brazil. While both corn and soybeans are lower than USDA estimates, the world carryout on corn is sitting at 309.78 million tonnes. World carryout on soybeans is sitting at 106.72 million tonnes.
Traders have reduced their long position by 50,000 contracts in corn and 6,000 contracts in soybeans in the last week. Large stocks and the uncertainty of trade with China have soybean traders sitting on the sidelines. Large stocks and the potential for even larger stocks in the coming year with an increase in acreage has corn traders doing the same.
Producers should be making sales or making plans for sales in the next few weeks. With expectations for higher corn acres in the March 31st planting intentions report this corn market could begin to drift lower. $3.50 cash, $3.65 fall are attractive prices for those with less than 50% of your crop sold. Producers should also be making sales for next February and March where prices are .30-.40 cents better than current prices.

Reminder that the markets will be closed next Monday 2/18/19 in observance of Presidents Day.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower this morning with corn down x and soybeans down x. Fridays report came as no surprise to most traders as yields were lowered in corn, but ending stocks were higher than estimates by 27 million bushels due to lower ethanol and feed use. Corn yield dropped from 178.9 to 176.4 bpa. Soybean yield dropped from 52.1 to 51.6 bpa. Corn carryout is projected at 1.735 billion bushel compared to 2.140 billion in 2017/18. Soybean carryout is projected at 910 million bushel which is more than double the 438 million bushel in 2017/18.
South America remains ideal to finish out the growing season as regular rain is forecast for most of Brazil and Argentina is expected to dry out next week. There is a chance for rain in Argentina in the ten day forecast that could finish their crop on a high note. Brazilian harvest is 26% complete.
President Trump is considering another shutdown of the Federal Government that would have a deadline of this Friday if his demands are not met by democrats.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Report day and there could be a lot of news in today’s report. Corn is expected to be bullish as exports have been close to record as of this date and feed use has been strong. Ethanol grind is expected to be reduced today, but yield is expected to be down about a bushel. South American corn production is expected to rise back to trend line yield levels or above.
Soybeans will have a bearish carryout number, but stocks are expected to gradually decrease if we can add new sales to China. The US has booked 400 million bushels of sales to China since the last report.
Here are the average estimates for today’s report. Check back at 11am for today’s numbers.

2018 Crop Production (Billion Bu)
USDA Feb Ave. Est USDA Nov.
Corn Yield 177.9 178.9
Production 14.532 14.626
Soybean Yield 51.8 52.1
Production 4.569 4.60

2018/19 US Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA Feb Ave. Est. USDA Dec.
Wheat .989 .974
Corn 1.708 1.781
Soybeans .926 .955

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are trading lower today as traders position ahead of tomorrow’s big report. The past 4 years have resulted in no excitement in the corn market following the final production numbers. Here is what has happened the last 15 years:

Make sure you are calling your buyers to get firm offers in today in case we see a short spike in the market before a selloff.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com