Good Morning

Yesterday’s WASDE report was a shocker to say the least. Expectations for corn yield were in the 177.4 bpa range compared to 178.4 in August. But favorable weather and record ears and ear weights drove the forecast to 181.3 bpa. This would eclipse the 2017 record yield of 176.6 by 4.7 bpa. Ending stocks were increased by 90 million bu. to 1.774 billion bu.
Soybean yields were increased 1.2 bpa from last month to 52.8 bpa. Carryout of soybeans now stands at 845 million bu. leaving the soybean stocks to use ratio just under 20%. (Producers that attended last Fridays meeting may recall what that means for cash prices). Despite the higher yield projections, soybeans managed to trade higher yesterday on rumors that the US is going to propose new Chinese trade talks. (Buy the rumor – sell the fact?)

Ethanol production for the week ending 9/7 averaged 1.02 mil barrels a day which is down 6% from a week ago and 3% from last year. Stocks totaled 22.9 mil barrels which is up 1% from last week and 8% from last year.
Weekly export sales were strong for both corn and beans. Corn came in at 30.5 mln bu. while soybeans were reported to be 25.5 mln bu. Both more than double their 10 week average.

Producers that have been holding out to market the last of their old crop corn and make sales for fall delivery timeframes have run out of time. Yesterday’s report gave us additional bearish news that will not be updated until November. Cash levels and basis levels have both dropped in the last couple months as we moved closer and closer to harvest. Look for basis levels across the country to widen as space becomes an issue with carryout from last year and the size of this years corn and bean crop. Producers should be actively locking in Basis levels for any grain they need to move.

Here are yesterday’s numbers:

USDA 2018/19 US Production (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Corn Yield 181.3 177.8 178.4
Corn Production 14.827 14.529 14.586
Soybean Yield 52.8 52.2 51.6
Soybean Production 4.693 4.649 4.586

USDA 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Wheat .935 .941 .935
Corn 1.774 1.639 1.684
Soybeans .845 .830 .785

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Softer markets prior to the release of today’s USDA Crop Production and S&D report. Corn is currently down 1 and soybeans are down 4. The report will be released at 11am today. Estimates listed below and will be updated with today’s numbers after they are released. The primary focus of today’s report appears to be on yield with many believing the 178 bpa mark is critical to the balance sheet. The range of estimates is 175-180 bpa.
The soybean market has continued to drift lower and is currently trading at new contract lows for SX at $8.24. The USDA average yield guess for today is 52.2 bpa, above last month’s yield of 51.6 bpa. The range of estimates is 50.9 to 53.8.
Yesterday’s crop conditions report showed US corn conditions increase 1% to 68% G/E. They put harvest at 5% completed, 86% dented and 35% mature. Wisconsin was 70% dented compared to 55% on average and 21% mature compared to 10% on average.
The US/China trade war doesn’t seem to be close to resolution. The US threatens more tariffs, China is not accepting license applications from US companies, confirming fears that US company operations in China and access to its markets may be disrupted. China revised its 2018/19 soybean imports forecast to 83.65 mmt, down 10.2 mmt from last month’s forecast.

USDA 2018/19 US Production (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Corn Yield 181.3 177.8 178.4
Corn Production 14.827 14.529 14.586
Soybean Yield 52.8 52.2 51.6
Soybean Production 4.693 4.649 4.586

USDA 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Wheat .935 .941 .935
Corn 1.774 1.639 1.684
Soybeans .845 .830 .785

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn has opened the week down 2 while soybeans are up 5. Most of the focus will be on Wednesdays USDA Crop Production and quarterly stocks report. Estimates are for corn yield and production to drop slightly from the August report. Estimates for beans are for higher yield and production. I would not be surprised to see higher production in both crops given the weather most of the US had in August. There are some trade estimates that 2018/19 soybean ending stocks could reach 1 billion bushels! The lack of exports combined with bigger yields could make this a reality.
Weather maps show most of the Midwest should be warmer and drier for the next 10 days which will result in a ramped up pace of corn harvest in IL, IA, MN. I am expecting producers in WI to start before the end of the month given how fast the crop has changed over the last two weeks.

Below are estimates for Wednesdays report:

USDA 2018/19 US Production (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Corn Yield 177.8 178.4
Corn Production 14.529 14.586
Soybean Yield 52.2 51.6
Soybean Production 4.649 4.586

USDA 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA Sept 12 Average Estimate USDA August
Wheat .941 .935
Corn 1.639 1.684
Soybeans .830 .785

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are both up two this morning, and it looks like we are going to have a dry stretch of weather! Trade is watching to see if the US and Canada form a trade deal by Friday. With a large crop starting to be taken off in the Southern Corn Belt, and a five month high trade deficit of $50 billion, it is extremely important the US can get good trade deals in place soon.

Several yield numbers have been coming in from parts of Illinois, a common theme seen is yield consistent with last year or 10-15 bushels higher. Each day these reports are creeping North, with similar expectations in mind. Make arrangements now to capture a more favorable basis than what is to come.

I would advise making cash sales or basis sales for any bushels that you will have to move this fall. We’ve seen fall basis widen in the past week in most areas, and expect this to happen again. Consider some levels for firm offers:
September $3.30
October/November $3.35-$3.40
December $3.50

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are both currently up three. Today is the last day of pricing on 2017-18 marketing. Markets could possibly see a couple cents added back next week, when rolling into the new month. Overall, do not expect any huge rallies, as weather is no longer playing a pivotal role in the 2018 crop.

FC Stone estimated the monthly corn yield for the US at 177.7 bpa yesterday.

I would advise making cash sales or basis sales for any bushels that you will have to move this fall. Not only do I expect space to be short, I also anticipate basis levels widening in the coming weeks.

Have a Great Holiday Weekend!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com