Good Morning,

Reports that China sent the US their own trade adjustments yesterday afternoon to get renegotiations moving forward once again have the markets trading higher this morning. More of these optimistic talks could spark as we get closer to the G-20 Summit at the end of this month. While this is great news and supportive to the market those with bullish thoughts about the markets need to keep a couple things in mind:
1. Nothing has been finalized yet.
2. China has found other suppliers for their soybeans and alternative sources for protein in the last 6 months.
3. We are currently putting away one of the largest corn and bean crops in US history.

Corn is trading 3 higher and soybeans are 8 higher to open the day.

Producers looking for space to put away this year’s crop or looking to core out bins before the first of the year should be targeting sales in the $3.40-3.50 range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Futures prices at the CBOT are trading mixed in a bit of a Turnaround Tuesday with beans up 3, corn down 3 following yesterday’s surge in prices on short-covering in the grains.
Yesterday there were rumors that further negotiations between the US and China would be underway this week. Chinese vice-premier Lui He is expected to visit the US soon, for talks with high level officials. Lui is believed to be visiting Washington in order to make preparations ahead of the G20 meeting at the end of November. Lui and Vice President Mike Pence are at the ASEAN Summit in Singapore today. World leaders are worried about the trade tension between the two world powers and thinks its bound to create a domino effect that will affect trade reactions from other developing nations.
Nevertheless, on the daily system this morning you have private exporters reporting to the USDA export sales of 276.7 TMT of new crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. The cash premiums in Brazil for soybeans have gotten murdered in the last week, down over $1 to $1.70 over the CBOT versus $2.75 in September and October. This has exporters there worried that they will see a significant decline in their market share if the US and China can come to some sort of resolution to end the trade war.

We can make a leap of faith here and say that once again sales to “unknown destinations” are most likely sales to China. For the most part right now, beans originating out of Brazilian ports continue to remain more attractive to the Chinese than those originating out of the Pacific-Northwest (PNW). The window is now open to get something done on a new trade deal because it will not be very long until boats in S. America begin loading new crop beans in late January/ early February.

Delivery Reminders for Didion –
1. We are only accepting November contracted corn. December contracts will have to hold off until December.
2. We are still buying spot and Last Half November corn.
3. All loads must be scheduled prior to delivery. This allows us to manage space and keep you from waiting in long lines.
4. Plan ahead when scheduling your loads. We would recommend you call at least 1 day in advance to schedule your loads.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 9, 2018

Good Morning,

Markets are lower this morning as traders make adjustments following the USDA’s decision to go back and alter 10 years worth of Chinese balance sheets for corn, beans and wheat. In particular it was the sharp rise in China’s corn stocks by 149 MMT that weighed on prices yesterday despite the 1.7 bu. reduction to the yield estimate for US corn. The 1.7 bu/acre reduction took the US yield to 178.9 which would still be a record yield by 2.3 bu/acre!
In the last 18 years the USDA has lowered their yield estimate in the November report from the October report only 9 times. Only twice have they raised the yield from the November to January report. Of these two years (2008 & 2009) only 2009 saw a significant change.
Ultimately yesterday’s news was in the world carryout and until we lower production or increase demand the prices we are seeing now are not going to change.

Delivery Reminders for Didion –
1. We are only accepting November contracted corn. December contracts will have to hold off until December.
2. We are still buying spot and Last Half November corn.
3. All loads must be scheduled prior to delivery. This allows us to manage space and keep you from waiting in long lines.
4. Plan ahead when scheduling your loads. We would recommend you call at least 1 day in advance to schedule your loads.

Have a Safe weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are up 1 this morning as traders anxiously await the USDA’s numbers that will come out at 11am. (Estimates are listed below)

US Production (billion bushels/million acres)
USDA November Avg. Estimate USDA October
Corn Production 14.721 14.778
Corn Yield 180.0 180.7
Harvested Area 81.749 81.767
Soybean Production 4.676 4.690
Soy Yield 52.9 53.1
Harvested Area 88.303 88.348

US 2018/19 Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
USDA November Avg. Estimate USDA October
Wheat .958 .956
Corn 1.773 1.813
Soybeans .898 .885

2018/19 World Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
USDA November Avg. Estimate USDA October
Wheat 259.45 260.18
Corn 158.82 159.35
Soybeans 110.91 110.04

Production estimates are lower than the October report for corn and soybeans but how much lower today’s report comes in will dictate what the markets do. I believe the current estimates have already been traded but feel we could see a short spike up if the numbers do come at these levels. Long term a 1.7 US carryout and a 158 world carryout are neutral to negative the markets long term. We need the US stocks to Use ratio to drop below 10% in order for us to see CBOT prices trade above $4. With a 1.7 US carryout and current use at 15.105 we are looking at a 12% stocks to use ratio. Ending stocks will need to drop below 1.6 in order for us to reach a number below 10%.

Check back at 11am for the updated numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Futures are trading lower in corn and soybeans with the Democrats seizing the House of Representatives, while the Republicans held onto the Senate in the Mid-Term Elections. Ultimately, little changed with the outcome of the election other than the White House now has to face a new hurdle in order to pass any legislation. The President still essentially holds the reigns in the renegotiating of the trade policies with China and has broad powers to cut and approve deals.

Look for traders to quickly turn their attention to tomorrow mornings USDA S&D report. Traders want to be long of corn/wheat and short of soybeans into the actual numbers. It wouldn’t be too big of a surprise to see a cut to 2018 production a little, though any reduction in yields could easily be offset by weaker demand. Ethanol production has been slow as the industry struggles with poor margins.
Tomorrow’s report will be the last yield and production update until the final in January. I would advise producers with any bushels that need to be sold between now and January to take off some risk today before tomorrow’s report. While the private analysts are expecting a lower yield tomorrow, we all know that these reports have been known to throw us a curveball!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com