Good Morning,

My hope was that the end of June would mean better things to for the markets but the first trading day of July is not looking that way. Corn is down 7, soybeans down 12 and wheat is down 8 to start the month. During the month of June, corn was down 42 cents, Soybeans were down $1.54 and wheat lost 83 cents.

Fridays acreage and stocks report did very little to stop the bears with higher acres and quarterly stocks in corn reported. Corn acres jumped to 89.1 million which is a million more than the March report. There is talk that this number could increase when the final acreage comes in January. With acres at 89 million plus and a yield of 175 bpa and demand remaining unchanged we would be looking at a carryout of 1.6 billion bushel which would signal higher prices. Keeping demand at last years level with the current tariff talks will be very difficult. Traders will be closely monitoring any potential trade talks this week with Friday being the tariff implementation date set by the Chinese. The 25% tariff will keep the markets under pressure as we wait for updates.

Weekend rains west of the Mississippi with nearly all of Iowa and many parts of Nebraska and Southern Minnesota receiving modest rains eased the concerns of the hot weekend temperatures. Weather forecasts show temporary relief to start the week before a hot and muggy Fourth of July. Low 90’s are expected in most of the Midwest by the middle of the week with a cooler trend and less humid by the weekend.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up a couple cents this morning after yesterday’s selloff at the closing. As expected we saw traders add to their short positions in corn and soybeans as they prepare for today’s report. Today’s USDA report, warmer temperatures and month end positioning could make for some very volatile trade today. Funds were short 92,000 corn contracts after yesterdays close.

Reports out overnight that China will relax restrictions on foreign investment in some industries including auto, banks and agriculture is being viewed as a step toward resolution of the trade conflict.

The US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes as ridging with hot temperatures will occur next week. The 11-16 day forecast has the ridge moving out with some rains and slightly cooler temps.

Below are today’s estimates.

USDA Quarterly Stocks (billion bu)

USDA Prospective Plantings (million acres)

Check back at 11:00am for todays numbers.

Have a Safe Weekend and Stay Cool!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Look for the markets to remain quiet today with the next USDA report coming out tomorrow at 11am and with no tariff news expected. Expectations for tomorrows reports appear bearish with estimates that both stocks on hand and acreage will be higher. If acreage is only slightly higher I would view it as neutral the markets. But if we get an acreage bump to 89.0 million or more and stocks at 5.3 billion bu. or higher, it could push the markets to new contract lows.
Weekly export sales of corn jumped this week to 33.5 million bu. which is back in line with the ten week average after only 6.5 million last week. Soybean sales were slightly higher at 13.2 million bu. New crop sales of both were strong with corn at 25.1 and soybeans at 23.6.
The numbers and trader reaction to tomorrow’s report are unknown, but regardless of how these numbers come out, we will struggle to move this market higher without some sort of positive trade news with China.

Producers should have firm offers in for old crop slightly above the current levels in case we would see the market initially move higher after tomorrows numbers are released. $3.40-3.50 range would be my target. New crop offers should be handled very similar with offers in the $3.50-3.60 range for fall delivery. I would not recommend any sales for next spring and summer at this time in hopes that our political issues can be resolved by that time.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 9 to start the day. Short term buying or the start of something better is the question. My guess is short term buying as traders begin to position ahead of Fridays report.
Average trade guesses for Friday’s acreage report are 88.56 million acres vs. March’s report of 88.03 million acres. Average guesses for quarterly stocks are 5.268 million bu. compared to last year’s 5.229 for the same time period. 13 of the last 18 years the June acreage report is higher than the March report. Of those 18 years, 6 times it has come in higher in the final report(January).
The 6-10 day weather forecasts are calling for above average temperatures and a lack for precipitation for much of the corn belt. There is adequate soil moisture to withstand the heat and dryness for some time but any prolonged periods of dry and hot weather could produce some issues. The 11-15 day forecast calls for rain in the eastern portion of the corn belt.
Concerns about Chinese demand continue to hang over the market and news that the US intends on unveiling a host of new restrictions on Chinese investment in the US this Saturday, June 30th.
Fundamentally I do not believe we should not be trading as low as we are, but politics has the markets are struggling to find any traction. Producers sitting on old crop corn are running out of time to move it and may not be given many more opportunities. Historically the June Acreage report and July 4th weekend bring an end to any old crop marketing opportunity for producers. This year the end appears to have come much earlier, but time will tell.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good morning,

Slightly higher markets overnight as we see some retracement after yesterday’s big selloff. Corn was up 3 and soybeans up 5 overnight. Crop conditions last night declined slightly from 78% G/E to 77% but it is the fourth highest rating for this week in history. Conditions declined the most in Kansas and Colorado. Wisconsin came in at 87% G/E compared to 90% last week. This compares to 75% on the 5 year average. National soybean conditions remained unchanged at 73% G/E compared to 68% on average.
I would not be surprised to see some more selling ahead of Fridays USDA report as traders are currently short 76,000 corn and 45,000 soybean contracts.
Concerns about Chinese demand continue to hang over the market following last week’s meltdown and news that the US intends on unveiling a host of new restrictions on Chinese investment in the US next Saturday, June 30th. This did little to calm fears with China expected to retaliate to any new news.
Fundamentally I do not believe we should not be trading as low as we are, but politics has been the “Trump” card as of late and the markets are struggling to find any traction. Producers sitting on old crop corn are running out of time to move it and may not be given many more opportunities. Historically the June Acreage report and July 4th weekend bring an end to any old crop marketing opportunity for producers. This year the end appears to have come much earlier, but time will tell.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com